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Thursday, 10 June 2010

The Best And Worst Of Times For China's Environment


There's great progress afoot. Just don't breath the air or drink the water.

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Gordon G. Chang,

It is the best of times for China's environment.

Chinese officials are determined to clean up their air, land and water. This month Beijing said it would subsidize purchases of electric cars and plug-in hybrids in a pilot program in five cities. The central government already offers a tax break for purchasers of smaller-engine vehicles and will follow up this year with a nationwide subsidy for gasoline-powered cars with engines no larger than 1.6 liters. These programs, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, will cover more than 4 million vehicles by 2012. The finance ministry, in recent days, announced it will also subsidize the manufacture of high-efficiency electric motors and power generators.

While cap-and-trade legislation is stalled in the swamp we call "Congress," the Chinese are racing ahead. At the end of last month Beijing said it would start a domestic market for trading carbon emissions by 2014. Just about half of the credits granted pursuant to the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism are for projects in China. The Chinese government is committed to reducing, by 2020, carbon emissions intensity--the amount of energy used per unit of gross domestic product--by as much as 45% over 2005 levels.

Even Beijing's social engineering programs are helping Mother Earth. The one-child policy, for example, saves 1.83 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions a year according to official estimates.

Last year China spent $34.6 billion in clean-energy initiatives, about twice the U.S.,which has an economy three times as large. "The Chinese aren't waiting around," noted Senator John Kerry last month. They have, he said, "surpassed us in renewable energy investment."

China is now the world's number one market for wind energy, the number one manufacturer of solar panels and the number one builder of nuclear energy generating stations. "Well, folks," writes New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, "Sputnik just went up again: China's going clean-tech." The country is no longer "Red," he assures us. We should, on the contrary, call it "Green China" now.

That's a catchy moniker, but you still wouldn't want to live there. It is also the worst of times for China's environment. The country stands on the edge of a monumental environmental crisis, perhaps the worst in world history, or at least the worst since the flood in Biblical times. Sixteen of the world's 20 dirtiest cities are located in the People's Republic, including the worst, Linfen, a coal-mining center in Shanxi province.

The rivers run black, the skies are dark gray, the land poisoned by a deadly brew of chemicals and metals. Weather patterns are changing, and storms seem more violent. Parts of the country are now uninhabitable due to sustained environmental degradation. Conditions across Green China are, in general, deteriorating. There are around 750,000 premature deaths each year due to air pollution alone.

That was the conclusion of the World Bank, relying on official Chinese data, in 2007. The Financial Times reported that Beijing forced the institution to suppress this ghastly statistic. "The World Bank was told that it could not publish this information," an unnamed advisor to the bank told the FT. "It was too sensitive and could cause social unrest."

A statistic could cause social unrest? This unfortunate episode illustrates why, despite all the money spent by the government, China's environment continues to get worse. The country's one-party state is suppressing information that could lead to citizens promoting, demanding and working for positive change. China does not have an environmental problem as much as it has a political one. To cripple potential rivals, the increasingly insecure Communist Party stepped up its campaign this year to suppress citizen groups, including those that have been so effective in creating environmental awareness.

Thomas Friedman extols the virtues of Chinese authoritarian leaders--he referred to them as a "reasonably enlightened group of people" last September--and thinks they do a swell job when it comes to the environment, but the regime that puts together wind turbines also built the disastrous Three Gorges Dam and is now working on the monumentally misconceived South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Today's leaders, unfortunately, are still waging Mao's war against nature.

And they are losing. Energy intensity, for instance, is going up. In the first quarter it jumped 3.2%, reversing the trend of the last half-decade. This unwelcome development is a direct result of Beijing's emphasis on heavy industry in its most recent fiscal stimulus campaign. Due to this and other factors, Chinese officials said this month they are "not very optimistic" on cutting carbon dioxide emissions. In fact, emissions are going in the wrong direction as well, up 1.2% in the first quarter of this year, a reversal of another trend.

We should not be surprised: Communist Party plans to promote economic growth trump just about everything else. That's why Beijing no longer publishes Green GDP statistics, which measure growth minus the cost of environmental degradation.

The Chinese may one day live in a green society with a clean environment, but that will only happen after they demand and build a new, open political system.

Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China. He writes a weekly column for Forbes.

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China Turns Its Focus To Africa

Ray TsuchiyamaBio | Email
Ray Tsuchiyama has extensive business operations background in the People's Republic of China, India and Japan, and has recruited and led teams globally in semiconductors and embedded software. 

 
When I was with a U.S. semiconductor firm I once visited the French subsidiary's Paris office.  An ethnically Chinese sales manager, who spoke English with a distinct French accent, greeted me.  During our conversation the manager explained he was born and raised on the large island of Madagascar (where French, English and Malagasy languages are spoken), off the southeastern coast of Africa, and later attended a Paris university before joining the U.S. chip firm.

His parents had traveled from Guangdong Province in southern China and settled in the capital city Antananarivo (and eventually owned several restaurants).  The Chinese population in Madagascar is larger than 50,000; the Mauritius islands have a similar population.  South Africa now has the largest Chinese community in Africa with approximately 300,000, with newly-developed Chinatowns in the eastern Johannesburg suburbs.

That country, which boasts the strongest economy in Africa, had a surge of Chinese immigration after apartheid’s end in the early 1990s. There are three South African Parliament members of Chinese descent, including two with the African National Congress (identified with former President Nelson Mandela, an isiXhosa-speaker) and one with the Nathan Freedom Party. It is not uncommon that South Africans with Chinese ancestry speak English, isiZulu, isiXhosa or Afrikaans with neighbors and friends, plus possibly Cantonese/Mandarin. (See my note on language in South Africa at the bottom of this post.)

Africa and China--seemingly entirely different worlds--are not easily linked. True, July 11 is celebrated as a holiday in the People’s Republic of China, in honor of the first voyage of Admiral Zhen. He, an extraordinary 15th-century Imperial fleet commander who completed seven long ocean voyages, including beyond the Indian subcontinent, reached the Horn of Africa and what is now Tanzania and Kenya.  His expeditions returned with giraffes and other exotic creatures to the astonishment of the Imperial Court.  (The Ming Dynasty was rather an open society; high-ranking Admiral He was both a Muslim and a eunuch.)

Even now Chinese porcelain pieces are uncovered during excavations in ancient trading cities like Zanzibar and Mombasa.  However, after these fantastic voyages, Chinese interest in “blue ocean” exploration waned and it was not until the early 1990s that Chinese re-engagement with Africa began anew and continues unabated today in many ways.


Now Africa is hot--in a political-economic sense. Africa used to be known for civil strife and famine; unfortunately, both continue in parts of the continent.  Other regions are experiencing intense competition in trade and natural resources, including oil and minerals, by firms from Europe, U.S., Japan, Korea and China.  Also, the World Cup in South Africa this month loudly heralds the arrival of Africa onto the world sports stage.

Many citizens in the U.S., Europe and Japan are unaware of the great emphasis China is placing on the African continent and its undeveloped market of 900 million people.  Over the past two decades thousands of Chinese government and state enterprise officials have fanned out throughout Africa for diplomatic recognition, educational and arts programs, FDI and business loans, giant construction projects, and business and trade deals.

By 2007, according to the New York Times, 750,000 mainland Chinese nationals were estimated to be living and working throughout Africa. Chinese financial assistance and engineering prowess completed the Lagos-Kano railway in Nigeria (a $8 billion project), the Beguile railway line in Angola with access from the Lobito seaport to interior copper mines, a freeway in Algeria and oil pipelines in Sudan.

A 2008 U.S. Council on Foreign Relations paper entitled “China, Africa, and Oil” by Stephanie Hansen paper pointed out that “Africa registered 5.8% economic growth in 2007, its highest level ever, in part because of Chinese investment. Experts say the roads, bridges, and dams built by Chinese firms are low cost, good quality and completed in a fraction of the time such projects usually take in Africa.”

From the African perspective, it is hard to build anything--bridges, roads, schools and hospitals--without money.  To do business, to sell palm oil or flowers or coffee, African small firms need money to buy seeds, fertilizer, tractors and trucks. To an African government official trying to complete a paved road to an airport or a struggling farmer in need for a loan to expand his overseas coffee sales, Chinese assistance is probably a godsend.

At the highest government level, the official multi-lateral organization between African states and the People’s Republic of China is the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).  Over the past decade there have been four meetings. In 2006 in Beijing, Chinese President Hu Jintao convened with top representatives from 35 African countries. Acting more like a developed, mature economic power, he signed $5 billion worth of low-cost loans to African countries.

Three years later, at the 2009 meeting at the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, the number of African states’ attendees increased to over 50. The list included 35 African heads of state, 6 heads of government, 1 vice president, 6 senior officials and the African Union Chairman. It was a rare instance because so many top Chinese leaders were out of China at the same time; Premier Wen Jiabao, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Commerce Minister Chen Deming all attended.

At the overflowing 2009 FOCAC session China committed to $10 billion in low-cost loans, plus an additional $1 billion in loans for African SME firms.  The total loan figure was not all: Wen, a geologist by training, also committed funding for 30 hospitals and 30 malaria centers, training for 3,000 doctors and nurses and 1,500 teachers, 50 China–Africa friendship schools (including Confucius Institutes in 16 African countries--since Confucian teachings revere elders for wisdom, there is synergy with traditional African culture), 20,000 health and technical professionals--and, startlingly, increased the number of Chinese government scholarships for African students to 5,500 by 2012 and a new plan to bring 100 African post-doctoral fellows to do research in China.

These latter African student figures are of high significance, since the programs would dramatically increase the number of Mandarin-speaking Africans. It is challenging to find other well-funded, multi-sector African assistance programs undertaken by other developed countries, like, say, Japan, the world’s second-ranked economy, where fewer African students study at Japanese universities even though it too is a superpower.  In other words, in poker terms, China was all in for future China-Africa relations.

According to the “China, Africa, and Oil” report, from 2002 to 2003, trade between China and Africa doubled to $18.5 billion; by 2007, it had reached $73 billion.   Furthermore, the paper continues: “Much of the growth was due to increased Chinese imports of oil from Sudan and other African nations, but Chinese firms also import a significant amount of non-oil commodities such as timber, copper, and diamonds. China recently began to import some African-manufactured value-added goods, such as processed foods and household consumer goods. Eighty-five percent of Africa's exports to China come from five oil-rich countries (Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, the Republic of Congo, and Sudan), according to the World Bank...But Chinese interest in Africa extends beyond oil. China now ranks as the continent's second-highest trading partner, behind the United States, and ahead of France and Britain.”

If China-Africa engagement continues into the future in such an explosive fashion, there will be large communities of newly arrived Chinese traders, engineers and manufacturing professionals from Cairo to Addis Ababa, from Lagos to Luanda, from Harare to Maputo to Capetown.

New Chinese enterprises will launch plants for “local products,” including clothes, pots and pans, plastic buckets, watches, shoes, soft drinks, packaged convenience foods, soap and cosmetics and low-end mobile phones. They could also make and sell consumer electronics, like localized versions of MIT Media Lab OLPC laptops and PCs, and white goods, like televisions, air-conditioners, fans, rice cookers and refrigerators.  There will be factories for cement and steel beams for new apartment and office buildings, for furniture and solar power panels.  Employing thousands of new plant workers, a line of Tata’s Nano-like inexpensive car and utility truck/SUVs could be produced in South Africa for export throughout the continent.

Simultaneously, these new Chinese-funded projects would require IT support, specialized oil drilling expertise, design services, project management skills and factory floor manufacturing equipment--in short, a new Chinese-led African business and technological eco-system with an appetite for a wide range of products and services.

What should be the future strategy for multinational firms trying to take in this Chinese wave of raw materials imports and low-cost manufacturing and sourcing in Africa?

The answer lies in the thousands of African students arriving at mainland China technical schools and universities via the aforementioned multi-year FOCAC China-Africa assistance programs.  Foreign firms should establish long-term interaction with leading Chinese faculty at Chinese universities, from top-rated Beijing University to Tsinghua to Fudan (in Shanghai) to other colleges in Tianjin, Dalian, Nanjing, Wuhan, Xiamen and Guangdong.

Employing first Chinese graduates of these colleges as liaison staff (and later Mandarin-speaking African college graduates), multinationals should sponsor Chinese faculty research in key areas like petroleum engineering, manufacturing operations and international commerce, and seek out talented students from Angola, Zambia, Congo and Sudan.

Multinational firms can train these recruits, and pay for their visits home to establish contact with their communities for further tapping of local talent.  Then these employees representing--say, Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, Bechtel or Ford--can visit Chinese-run offices in Brazzaville and converse in Mandarin about a RFQ. It's a scene that should become as familiar as a Chinese speaking Swahili or Yoruba or Malagasy-accented French, like the semiconductor sales manager I met in Paris years ago.

A complex China-Africa emerging-markets strategy of geography, products and commerce is not easy for a firm headquartered in Chicago to grasp all the pieces of the puzzle, but the first step is to identify the right talented staff who have in-depth knowledge about the two seemingly disparate worlds of Africa and China--peoples, cultures, languages and markets.

(Note: When I was working in Johannesburg, South Africa I was surprised by the ease the hotel reception staff pronounced my last name. Usually it is mangled by Americans and Europeans, as the opening “tsu” sound does not exist in Indo-European languages.   The South Africans explained that the “tsu” sound, plus other syllables in my name, is used among Bantu family language [isiXhosa or isiZulu] speakers.  I felt quite at home.)

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In China, Democracy's On The Horizon


Helen WangBio
Author, consultant, and expert on China's middle class, business, culture and politics. 


Twenty-one years ago, thousands of Chinese students gathered at Tienanmen Square demanding more democracy. The world still remembers the stunning image of a lone student standing in front of armed tanks in an attempt to block the tanks from entering into the Square.

At the time, I had just arrived in the United States as a student and watched the entire demonstration on TV. Like other Chinese students in the U. S., I protested with them on the streets and wept with them when the crackdown came.

Today China has become a very different country. The new middle class has little in common with those idealistic students.


They are the beneficiaries of China’s economic reform. Most of them approve what the government has done. They are all busy trying to keep up with the swirling changes.

Geng Hui, an interior designer in Beijing, told me that he couldn’t care less about democracy. “I have all the freedom to do the things I want,” he said. “I have more opportunities than I can pay attention to.”

“People don’t care about politics now,” Veronica Chen, a young woman who started her own executive search firm in Shanghai, said. “They only care about having a good life and being trendy.”

Some people I talked to said they wished that their rights were better protected, but they also understand that China is a big country and it has a lot of complex problems. They are concerned that if the Communist Party is not in power, no one else is capable of running such a large country with so many challenges.

The truth is that the Chinese middle class and the Chinese government want the same thing--continuing economic growth and stability of the country. When it comes to choosing between democracy and stability, they choose the latter.

Although the Chinese middle class does not want radical changes, it has started to voice its opinions and show signs of power that never existed before. The Internet and mobile phones have played a significant role in this process.

In November 2008, China pushed through a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) economic stimulus package. People debated vigorously in blogs and online media about how well the plan was constructed. Critics inside and outside the Communist Party pressed for details about the spending and demanded the right to follow the money.

A Shanghai-based lawyer, Yan Yiming, filed a lawsuit against the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s de facto central planning agency. Although Yan’s suit was rejected by the Beijing High People’s Court, a lawsuit against the central government was unprecedented.

In May 2009, the Chinese government issued a statement to require all the computers sold in China to pre-install spyware called “Green Dam Youth Escort.” China’s 300 million Internet users strongly opposed installation of the software. After weeks of criticism from the public, the Chinese government backed off, and later announced that “Green Dam” was no long required to be pre-installed on new computers.

These are just a few examples of how the Chinese middle class pushes back and demands more protection for their rights, property and privacy.

Many people I talked to expressed the sentiment that “only when we have economic freedom, will we have political freedom.”

Evidence from other countries, such as South Korea and Taiwan, suggests that when countries advance economically, they begin to change politically around the time that the incomes of their middle class reach somewhere between $5,000 and $10,000. If this rule applies to China, it will not be too long before we will see some sort of democracy movement in China.

In fact, a former Tienanmen Square demonstrator/student leader told me that he believes China will have a democratically elected government in 10 years. I am hopeful that as the Chinese middle class continues to grow, democracy will arise in its time.

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The Real Culprit Behind BP's Oil Spill


America's unstoppable dependence on oil.

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Coastal animals covered in oily filth have given us a visceral sense of what the BP oil disaster means for our natural environment. The more disturbing news is that this oil spill represents a drop in the bucket--a small fraction of the petroleum that enters the world's oceans every year.

A NASA estimate found that roughly 6 million tons of petroleum products enter the world's oceans every year, or 0.25% of total world oil production. Water sewage treatment plants, for example, spew far more oil into the oceans than tanker spills in most years. Even leaving aside truly catastrophic spills like Deepwater Horizon and Exxon Valdez, estimates of average annual spills from rigs and tankers range as high as 250 millions gallons per year. These spills tend to attract far less attention. We don't see haunting photographs of oil-stained dragonfly's wings when a Nigerian tanker explodes. But irreplaceable forms of life are endangered all the same.

Armed with righteous indignation, a large and growing number of Americans are demanding that we end our reliance on oil and build a new energy economy in its place. The problem is that the American middle class can't afford sudden and abrupt change.

This past year the U.S. Department of Commerce published a fascinating report for the White House Task Force on the Middle Class. To provide a more vivid illustration of the choices facing middle-class families, the report's authors present three two-parent, two-child families at three different income levels: $80,600 for the median family, $122,800 for the family at the 75th percentile and $50,800 for the family at the 25th percentile. For all three families the cost of owning and maintaining an automobile is staggeringly high. The 75th percentile family spends $15,400 a year on two large sedans or SUVs at a purchase price of $30,000 and drives them a total of 25,000 miles a year. If this sounds profligate, consider that mobility enables a family like this to earn as much as it does: Both parents commute and work long hours, both make trips to the grocery store to stock up on prepackaged meals. The family winds up devoting far more resources to mobility than to medical care, college savings or retirement savings.

The median family is hit even harder by car ownership. Though this family purchases less expensive vehicles, it has to drive just as much. The $12,400 it spends on mobility matches what it has to pay in taxes. And for the family at the 25th percentile, which still has to drive 25,000 miles a year, the cost of mobility dwarfs the amount of taxes owed: $7,900 for two small used sedans against $6,000 in taxes. Consider what happens when you ask these two families to pay a much higher gasoline tax. Or what happens when you offer a tax credit to buy a new fuel-efficient hybrid vehicle. Given how little these families are able to save in an average year, there is no asset cushion that would allow you to buy your way out of oil dependence. The Commerce report sheds light on the angst and anxiety caused by spikes in the price of gasoline, and why efforts by congressional Democrats to pass cap-and-trade have met such ferocious resistance.

It also tells us why environmental outrage tends to dissipate after the networks stop showing footage of baby pelicans weighed down by thick globs of oil. Think of how a working parent at the median income or at the 25th percentile must feel every time she sees the price at the pump, and how it determines how much she can save for her child's college education or for her own retirement. Once a symbol of freedom and independence, the automobile is increasingly seen as a punishing and inescapable burden. It has an appetite almost as bottomless as that of a child, only it never loves you back.

All hope is not lost. We can reduce our dependence on oil and reduce the danger it poses to our natural environment. The surest route to that end is to make more families--here and around the world--affluent enough to bear the very high transition costs. Because that process will take a very long time, we need to consider a more urgent approach.

Decades of mortgage subsidies pushed homeownership to levels approaching 70%. Though the number of homeowners has declined in the wake of the recent housing bust, millions of Americans are still tethered to homes they can't afford in weak job markets. Rather than increase overall spending, thus pushing up the tax burden on middle class households, we'd do well to shift some of the $200 billion we spend a year on housing subsidies to easing the economic costs of clean mobility.

Lisa Margonelli, author of Oil on the Brain, has crafted a reform proposal designed to reduce oil dependence without overburdening working and middle class families. A broader package could include everything from generous subsidies for transit to loans designed to encourage the purchase of fuel-efficient vehicles, perfectly targeted to meet the needs of households at the 25th and 50th percentiles. This approach is far from perfect. But it may just give us the political capital we need to fight pollution.

By Reihan Salam, who is a policy advisor at e21 and a fellow at the New America Foundation. The co-author of Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream, he writes a weekly column for Forbes.

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Wednesday, 9 June 2010

"Volcker rule" at issue as reform bill nears finale

Paul Volcker, chairman of the newly formed Economic Recovery  Advisory Board, attends a speech by U.S. President Barack Obama about  Wall Street reforms at Cooper Union in New York April 22, 2010.  REUTERS/Natalie Behring
Paul Volcker, chairman of the newly formed Economic Recovery Advisory Board, attends a speech by U.S. President Barack Obama about Wall Street reforms at Cooper Union in New York April 22, 2010.
Credit: Reuters/Natalie Behring
 
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As Congress got to work crafting a final Wall Street reform bill on Tuesday, new tensions surfaced over the proposed "Volcker rule" that aims to curb risky trading and investing by banks.

White House economic adviser Paul Volcker, in a letter obtained by Reuters, said he firmly opposes exemptions to his rule being sought by banks that say they make only small investments in private equity and hedge funds.

At the same time, some Senate Democrats were moving to toughen the Volcker rule by reducing the latitude given to regulators in implementing it once it becomes law -- a prospect now widely seen as all but certain, likely within weeks.

Conflict over the rule -- which threatens the profits of banking giants such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley -- came as a congressional conference committee prepared for its first meeting on merging House and Senate reform measures into the biggest bank regulation overhaul since the 1930s.

After days of behind-the-scenes talks among conferees, the committee will hold its first public meeting on Thursday, with the goal of completing its work by June 26, Representative Barney Frank, the committee chairman, said on Tuesday.

House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi will appoint Democratic members from that chamber to the joint Senate-House committee on Wednesday, Frank told reporters.

Frank and other conference committee leaders will have the difficult job of balancing Democrats' desire for a hard-hitting bill with the need to retain some support from Republicans who have generally sided with Wall Street in resisting changes.

The completed House-Senate package must win passage in each chamber before it can be sent to Obama to be signed.

FRANK, DODD VOW OPEN PROCESS

Frank said conferees will aim to work for six to eight days between Thursday and June 26. He and his Senate counterpart, Democrat Christopher Dodd, said they would make committee sessions as open as possible.

Using the Senate-passed legislation as a starting point, conference members will have to propose changes a day before they are voted on, in an effort to avoid the secret deal-making that has marked past conference committees, Frank said.

"We certainly have no reason to try to keep the public out," Frank said. "We've benefited from its presence, he added," noting that public attention so far has had the effect of making the legislation tougher on Wall Street.

Dodd said the Senate conferees, who have already been appointed, will hold an initial meeting on Wednesday.

The Volcker rule was first proposed in January by Volcker and President Barack Obama, stunning capital markets.

It would curb proprietary trading by banks for their own accounts unrelated to customers' needs; bar them from sponsoring hedge funds and private equity funds; and limit their future growth through a new cap on market share.

The Senate bill, approved last month, endorsed the rule, but subjected it to a two-year study by regulators that critics said left the door open to watering it down later.

The Volcker rule is not in the House bill, but the bill has language that would let regulators bar proprietary trading at institutions that threaten financial stability.

Senate aides said large banks are pressing for "de minimis" exemptions to the Volcker rule that would let them invest in outside funds for marketing or relationship purposes.

VOLCKER "ABSOLUTELY" OPPOSES EXEMPTIONS

"I absolutely oppose any such modification" of the Senate bill, Volcker said in his May 17 letter sent to Dodd.
"Allowing a bank to invest in a speculative fund goes against the very intent of the (Senate) bill as we seek to define those activities that are worthy of government protection," he said in the letter.

The fight over the Volcker rule was unfolding in tandem with efforts by banks to kill another proposed measure that would force them to spin off their swap-trading desks.

Swaps are derivative contracts that allow wagering on the direction of interest rates or the likelihood of a borrower defaulting on its debt, known as a credit default swap.

Credit default swaps were blamed in the 2007-2009 financial crisis that hammered economies worldwide, triggering taxpayer bailouts and a global wave of financial reform initiatives.

The swap-desk measure from Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln could be dropped if the Volcker rule is toughened, some sources said, but the interplay between the two was unclear.

"We should correct the derivatives language independent of the Volcker rule and then try to get the Volcker rule right, which is also a complex issue. I don't think the two should be linked," Republican Senator Judd Gregg told Reuters Insider.

A key factor will be the outcome of Lincoln's difficult primary election race back home in Arkansas on Tuesday.

Analysts have said for weeks that her swap desk "push-out" measure would likely be dropped, something that would be even more likely if she loses in the primary.

MERKLEY: TOUGHEN VOLCKER RULE

Senator Jeff Merkley told Reuters on Tuesday that the Volcker rule is crucial to reform and should be toughened.

He and Senator Carl Levin, both Democrats, want to give regulators less discretion in implementing it. Merkley said he and Levin would meet on Tuesday with Volcker "to discuss the conference committee and how we're going to get this done."

Volcker, in a May 19 letter to Merkley and Levin, expressed support for their proposal, saying it would "clarify and enhance the proprietary trading restrictions" in the bill.

Levin told reporters on Tuesday that he was not linking the measure he and Merkley support to the Lincoln provision. "We're not arguing that it's one or the other," Levin said.

Banking industry analysts estimated last month that the sweeping financial reforms then being debated in Congress, taken together, could reduce big banks' profits in a range of 12 to 35 percent, depending on the institution.

Other banks whose profits could be hit by the Volcker rule, include Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America.

On another front, Dodd said discussions were under way about a possible transition period that would help banks comply with new capital standards being proposed in the Senate bill under an amendment by Republican Senator Susan Collins.

"I don't know if it's been resolved yet. We're working very closely with Senator Collins," Dodd said.
Both the House and Senate bills call for higher capital requirements on banks and financial firms as they get bigger and assume more risk. Neither bill has much detail, however, largely leaving that up to regulators -- with one difference.

The Collins amendment would make bank holding companies adhere to the same capital standards as bank subsidiaries. It would also bar bank holding companies from counting certain hybrid securities in meeting a key measure of strength.

(Additional reporting by Caren Bohan, Rachelle Younglai, Thomas Ferraro and Charles Abbott; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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