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Saturday, 10 July 2010

Immigration Can Fuel U.S. Innovation—and Job Growth

Lost amid the heated debate over U.S. policy is a key point: Immigrant entrepreneurs and skilled workers are a boon to the economy

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 Arizona may be ground zero for the conflict over U.S. immigration policy, but it takes only a few minutes of watching cable television news and scanning local op-ed pages to see how raw and divisive the matter has become in the nation's political sphere.

Yet with all the heated rhetoric about illegals, border security, amnesty, racial profiling, and other incendiary topics, one aspect of immigration isn't emphasized enough: the job-creating potential of immigrant entrepreneurs. They're the vanguard in America's global competition for entrepreneurial talent and innovative ideas. The nation needs to encourage more entrepreneurs from other nations to call America home. Their energy is the elixir of future economic growth.

Take a recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute on U.S. multinational corporations. In Growth and competitiveness in the United States: The role of its multinational companies, the consulting firm notes that big business comprises less than 1 percent all U.S. companies, yet the 2,270 multinational corporations in its database accounted for 31 percent of the growth in inflation-adjusted gross domestic product from 1990 to 2007. Even more important, U.S. multinational corporations have contributed 41 percent of gains in labor productivity since 1990—and 53 percent of the productivity increases during expansions.

The consultants highlight the role immigrants play in bolstering the competitiveness of American multinationals, especially helping the U.S. "lead the world in the number of engineers, scientists, and business professionals who are ready to work in a multinational company."

High-Tech Startups

Specifically, some of the world's brightest brains and cutting-edge innovators come to learn and create in the U.S.—and they stay. In 2007, for instance, 62 percent of foreign-born nationals who received a science or engineering doctorate remained in the U.S. for at least five years following graduation. That figure is up from 41 percent in 1992. More than 80 percent of graduates of Indian origin and 90 percent of Chinese graduates still lived in America five years after graduation, according to McKinsey. (The McKinsey study on multinationals makes for good companion reading to Intel founder Andy Grove's cover story in the July 5-11 issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek. The Silicon Valley legend is himself an immigrant from Hungary.)

It's well-known that America's high-tech economy has prospered thanks largely to highly educated foreigners. But the degree that the nation's cutting-edge industries, from semiconductors to biotechnology, depend on immigrant scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs to remain competitive is stunning. For example, a quarter of the engineering and technology companies started in the U.S. from 1995 to 2005 had at least one founder who was foreign-born, according to research by scholars Vivek Wadhwa, Annalee Saxenian, Ben Rissing, and Gary Gereffi. In Silicon Valley, America's epicenter of technological innovation, the percentage of immigrant-founded startups reached 52 percent of total new companies over the same period.

The scholars also calculate that foreign nationals living in the U.S. were named as inventors or co-inventors in 24 percent of all international patent applications filed in the U.S. in 2006. That's up from 7 percent in 1998. The influx of highly-skilled workers from India, Asia, Latin America, and other corners of the world is also a boon to U.S. exports.

Lake Street Revival

It isn't just highly educated foreigners who are entrepreneurs, either. Immigrants have created businesses, from the corner grocery to the local builder, that create jobs and revitalize neighborhoods throughout the country. Take Lake Street in Minneapolis. A good portion of the major urban artery had become was one of the city's most poverty-stricken, crime-ridden neighborhoods by the late 1980s and early 1990s

Storefronts were boarded up, while drug dealing, prostitution, and other crimes were all too common.

The area started to attract Latino immigrants, legal and illegal. The first Latino-owned business opened on Lake Street in 1994. Cheap rents and a growing market attracted many more Hispanic entrepreneurs. "We saw the need and the opportunity," says Ramon Leon, founder and chief executive of the Latino Economic Development Center on Lake Street. "Everybody wanted to open a business on Lake Street."

Business is doing well on Lake Street today, despite the economic downturn. The street is lined with restaurants, small grocery stores, and other classic neighborhood shops. East African entrepreneurs from Somalia and Eritrea have also opened businesses. Little wonder that cities with lots of immigrants have seen their per capita tax base go up, according to David Card, economist at the University of California, Berkeley. The competition on Lake Street is fierce enough that immigrant entrepreneurs are increasingly aware they need to expand their market beyond their ethnic communities. "If you want to be successful you need to sell stuff to others," says Ramon.

Put Out the Welcome Mat

The Obama Administration wants to start a national debate on comprehensive immigration reform. It's a sensible but daunting, politically perilous undertaking. The Bush Administration took a similar tack, and it ended badly. All the political signs point toward legislative intransigence rather than compromise. The danger is that during a period of anger and vilification of immigrants, fortified by post-9/11 fears of immigrants, 
America will lose out in the global war for innovative brain power and entrepreneurial hustle. It's all too easy for overseas innovators and entrepreneurs to stay home and pursue their dream there, particularly in fast-growing emerging markets with modern universities and high-tech clusters.

Yet America's historic record, blue-chip economic research, and well-established business experience all suggest the payoff from making it vastly easier for immigrants—especially educated immigrants—to stay permanently in the U.S. will be enormous. Tear down the walls that place obstacles to immigrants attending American universities and set up procedures for rapidly granting educated workers permanent resident visas.

Create a mechanism for a permanent "entrepreneurial" visa for those immigrants with a hunger to create a business and a plan for a job-generating startup. Instead of piling on more obstacles to prevent abuses of the current temporary H-1B visa system, why not streamline the whole process and eliminate many of the restrictions that make it difficult for workers to travel, change jobs, or earn a promotion?

Let's turn down the rhetoric and put out the welcome mat again.

Farrell is contributing economics editor for Bloomberg Businessweek. You can also hear him on American Public Media's nationally syndicated finance program, Marketplace Money, as well as on public radio's business program Marketplace. His Sound Money column appears on Businessweek.com. 

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Russia - US spy swap under way

Russia, U.S. swap 14 in Cold War-style spy exchange

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A Vision Airlines Boeing 767 plane carrying candidates for the spy swap lands at Washington Dulles International airport July 9, 2010.

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The largest Russia-US spy swap since the Cold War appears to be in motion. A Russian convicted of spying for the US has been reportedly plucked from a Moscow prison and flown to Vienna.

Igor Sutyagin, a Russian arms control analyst serving a 14-year sentence for spying for the US, told relatives he was going to be on the swap list.

Russian and US officials refused to comment on a possible swap.

A swap would have significant consequences for efforts between Washington and Moscow to repair ties chilled by a deepening atmosphere of suspicion.

A political analyst believes a swap is likely.

Ninolai Petrov, Political Analyst at carnegie Endowment, said, "I am afraid that we will never learn totally about how exactly it happens, and I am afraid it can be a mixture of both secret services from both sides, to be interested somehow in doing something which is not necessarily in favour of their political leadership. The fact that a solution to the case was found in such a fast way means that there is a political desire to fix the problem and not to develop the scandal, so there is understandable political will from both sides."

In New York, the ten suspects recently accused of being undercover Russian spies pleaded guilty. The ten and an 11th person, who was released on bail by a court in Cyprus and is now a fugitive, were formally charged in a federal indictment.

The defendants are accused of living seemingly ordinary lives in America while acting as unregistered agents for the Russian government, sending secret messages and carrying out orders they received from their Russian contacts.


Editor:Zhang Jingya |Source: CCTV.com


Tips for Job-Seeking in This Economy


Newswise — Thanks to the recession, today’s job market is crowded. If an open position at a company would once attract 100 resumes, today it could attract 500. The search can be long and grueling.

Butler University Executive-in-Residence Marv Recht offers some tips to help in the job search.

1) Be prepared for your salary to get a “haircut.”
With more job seekers than available jobs, companies appear to be using the imbalance to adjust their salary bands downward. Rutgers University researchers first surveyed a representative sample of unemployed Americans in August and recently checked back with them to monitor their luck in going back to work. Since August, only one in five of the group who had been out of work for six months or longer had found a job. Of that group, only 10 percent had landed a new position with a salary on par with their previous job. The rest had accepted lower pay and fewer benefits.

2) Handle the question of salary expectations strategically.
In a job listing, employers often ask for your salary expectations or history. You do not want to rule yourself out of a chance at an interview by listing a salary that is too high; conversely, you do not want to short-change yourself if you should land the job by listing a salary that is too low.

Handle the question with a variation of this response: “My most recent base salary was $XX. However, as I
understand, there is significant growth potential in this position. As my primary interest at this stage of my career is working for a growing company, the matter of salary is negotiable.”

What if you are offered the job and the HR person asks, “What kind of salary are you looking for?” Again, you don’t want to rule yourself out by being too high or shortchange yourself by being too low. Prepare for that moment by researching on www.salary.com what the midpoint of the salary range is for that kind of job in the area where the company is located.

3) Play good offense if your age might be an issue in a job interview.
If you are 50 or over, you want to disabuse the potential employer quickly of the idea that you might work a few years in the new job and then retire. Research the company thoroughly so you can speak knowledgably about the company’s success. Emphasize the future in answers, such as “I see the company is on a growth pattern of X percent a year and I want to work for a growing firm and grow in my skills and contributions to that success.”

4) Be prepared to move.
You like where you currently live because it’s a good place to raise children, say, or your elderly parents live nearby. That’s fine — but your best shot at a job might lie elsewhere.

5) Investigate getting into a new job via a staffing organization.
With companies reduced to lean employee rolls, they are filling some of the gaps with temp employees from companies such as Kelly Services, Inc., and Adecco. As the economy picks up steam, companies will make some of those jobs full-time again. If you are already doing great work as a temp in a position, you will be first in line for consideration.

Marv Recht has over 35 years of career counseling and human resources experience, working for General Motors Corporation and human resources consulting firm DBM. Now retired from corporate life, he works at Butler University as an executive-in-residence for the College of Business where he teaches courses on career planning and development, and serves as an academic advisor.

To find other Butler University experts, visit http://www.butler.edu/experts/.
Source: Butler University
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Friday, 9 July 2010

Joblessness and housing add risks to U.S. recovery: IMF

A view of a home for sale in Los Angeles February 24, 2010.   REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni
WASHINGTON | Thu Jul 8, 2010 6:53pm EDT
 
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - High unemployment and a moribund housing market have increased risks to the U.S. economic recovery, while the public debt looms large and needs to be cut, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

In a statement after annual consultations with U.S. authorities, the IMF raised its U.S. growth forecasts slightly to 3.3 percent for 2010 and 2.9 percent for 2011, but said unemployment would remain above 9 percent for both years.

The lofty jobless rate, coupled with a large backlog of home foreclosures and high levels of negative home equity, posed risks of a "double dip" in the housing market, it said. But the IMF said it did not think a renewed recession was likely.

"The outlook has improved in tandem with recovery, but remaining household and financial balance sheet weaknesses -- along with elevated unemployment -- are likely to continue to restrain private spending," the Fund said.

The IMF also said commercial real estate continued to deteriorate, posing risks for smaller banks. Further tipping the balance of risks to the downside, it said Europe's sovereign debt crisis could worsen financial market conditions and hurt trade.

David Robinson, the IMF's Western Hemisphere deputy director, conceded in a news briefing that recent data had come in on the weak side since the report was completed on June 21. If the weakness continued, the Fund may have to revise its forecasts downward, he said.

In a separate report on the world economy, the IMF raised its 2010 global growth forecast to 4.6 percent from the 4.2 percent it had projected in April.

DEBT BURDEN

Apart from dealing with economic risks, the IMF said the key challenge for the United States was to develop a credible strategy to put its budget on a sustainable path without jeopardizing the recovery.

The fund said U.S. federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product would rise from 64 percent in 2010 to 80.4 percent by 2015, 96.3 percent by 2020 and 135 percent by 2030. These debt forecasts are higher than those of the Obama administration and the Congressional Budget Office, which projects debt-to-GDP at 77.4 percent in fiscal 2015, and 90 percent by 2020.

A U.S. Treasury official said the IMF's forecasts for future growth and interest rates were "overly pessimistic". The Fund, for example, predicted U.S. growth at 2.8 percent in 2012, compared to the Blue Chip consensus of private forecasters at 3.4 percent growth for that year.

But the IMF welcomed commitments by the Obama administration to stabilize this at just over 70 percent of GDP by 2015 but called for a downward path after that, a step that would require both spending cuts and increased revenues.

The IMF said the biggest contribution the United States could make to global growth and stability would be to increase its domestic savings -- particularly by reducing deficits.

"The U.S. is no longer going to be the global consumer of last resort and therefore other countries, especially those with current account surpluses, will need to take up the slack," Robinson said.

"With our assessment that the dollar is now somewhat overvalued from a medium-term perspective, I emphasize medium-term, this will also need to be accompanied by greater exchange rate flexibility and appreciation elsewhere," he added.

Robinson said he believed the dollar's value would decline moderately over the next five years based on economic fundamentals. The dollar's rise in recent months was "not helpful" in sustaining global recovery but was not a "deal breaker" either, he said.

The Fund said the Federal Reserve's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low was appropriate to fight deflation and the drag on the economy from reduced government spending, but said the U.S. central bank must clearly communicate its plans for exiting its supportive policies.

The IMF also said that while the United States has made considerable progress in restoring financial stability, more capital will be needed in the banking system to support additional lending -- particularly if securitization markets remain impaired.

It said U.S. financial reform legislation would reduce systemic risks in the financial system, but noted that Congress missed an opportunity to consolidate bank regulators, maintaining a burden on agencies to cooperate and avoid gaps in supervision.

(Additional reporting by Emily Kaiser, Tim Ahmann and Lesley Wroughton; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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Thursday, 8 July 2010

Krugman Says U.S. Economy Is Facing a ‘Long Siege’


Washington -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the U.S. should have a “kitchen-sink strategy” that uses all fiscal and monetary policies possible to prevent the economy from sliding back into a recession.

“We are looking at what could be a very long siege here,” Krugman said in an interview today in Princeton, New Jersey, with Carol Massar of Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” “We really are at a stage where we should have a kitchen-sink strategy. We should be throwing everything we can get at this.”


At a time when European countries such as Germany are calling for austerity measures to rein in budget deficits, Krugman is calling for more stimulus to prevent a repeat in the U.S. of Japan’s decade of economic malaise in the 1990s.

“The most effective things you can do, in terms of actual bang for the buck, is actually having the federal government go out and hire people,” he said. “We are deep in the hole here, and you need to be unconventional to get out of it.”

He said too many policy makers and commentators are overly concerned that the ballooning U.S. deficit would set off a crisis of confidence similar to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. Krugman said he’s concerned U.S. policy makers would be unable to agree to short-term stimulus for the economy along with long- term measures to curtail the deficit.

“I worry about the politics,” he said. “I worry about our ability to get a consensus to do the pretty straight-forward things we need to do to balance our budget in the long run.”

Long-Term Deficits

The projected U.S. budget gap in 10 years can be brought under control with a “combination of modest tax increases and reasonable spending cuts,” particularly on health care, Krugman said, adding it’s “extremely unlikely” the U.S. would ever default on its debt.

“I’m not aware of any example of a country that got into fiscal difficulty because it began a stimulus program and couldn’t take away the stimulus program,” he said. “If you’re serious about fiscal responsibility, you should not be saying, ‘let’s skimp on aid to the economy in the middle of a financial crisis.’”

Krugman forecast the economy will grow at about a 1 percent pace or slightly faster within six months, and that job growth would be less than the rate of growth of the population. He said in six months, the U.S. would be facing a “labor market that’s getting worse not better.”

Job Gains

The U.S. Labor Department reported last week that employment fell by 125,000 workers in June, the first jobs decline this year, because of layoffs of temporary census workers. Private companies added 83,000 people, a smaller-than- forecast gain that capped a month of data indicating weakness in industries from housing to manufacturing.

Other reports last month showed a plunge in home sales, a slump in consumer confidence, cooler manufacturing and less growth in the first quarter.

The lack of jobs will curtail consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy, and restrain sales at retailers including Barnes & Noble Inc. The rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s faces risks from the European debt crisis and slower growth in China at the same time that fiscal stimulus measures fade.

“We are, I think, sliding into a situation where we’re likely to see several bad years ahead,” Krugman said. “Given what I see in the political process, the odds are against us avoiding a really prolonged bad period.”

By Bob Willis and Carol Massar
Bloomberg