Is there a super bull run in 2010?, Mini-bull run soon !

Personal Investing - By Ooi Kok Hwa

Although the economic situation now compares with that of 1993, the last push must come from local retail investors 

THE recent rally in our local bourse has prompted many seasoned investors, especially those who experienced the super bull run in 1993, to wonder whether the current rally is about to turn into a real bull run. Of course, nobody can tell for sure what will happen next, but we certainly can do some homework, comparing the circumstances back in 1993 against the current situation.

In 1991, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad unveiled the philosophy of “Malaysia Incorporated” which was a development strategy for Malaysia to achieve a developed nation by 2020. In the early 1990s, despite slowdown in the global economy, as the third largest economy in South-East Asia, after Indonesia and Thailand, Malaysia was supported by relatively strong macroeconomic fundamentals and resilient financial system. With the real GDP growing at 9.9%, ringgit appreciation, strong export growth and the Government’s measures to hold inflation low at 3.6%, the local stock market became an attractive alternative to foreign investors.

Before 1993, foreign investment in Malaysia was mainly dominated by long-term direct investment in the manufacturing sector. However, as a result of measures taken to develop our domestic equity market, coupled with the strong economic backdrop, we saw a massive influx of foreign capital inflow, which helped fuel the super bull-run in 1993. Within the year, the market increased by 98% to reach an all-time high of 1,275.3 points and foreign investors’ participation accounted for 15% of total trading value of our local bourse. This had also driven the market into a highly speculative one, which lured many retailers into the market, thinking of making fast and easy money.

With the presence of new and unfamiliar players, the market became a huge “casino”. Retail investors bought into stocks based on rumours rather than company fundamentals. Among the hottest topics during that time were the awards of government mega projects, privatisation candidates, sector play and regular news on upward revision of corporate earnings. Examples for the highly speculative stocks were Ekran, Ayer Molek Rubber Co, Berjuntai Tin Dredging and Kramat Tin Dredging.

In 1993, with the economy booming, the Government planned several mega projects, including the KL International Airport (RM8bil), Johor-Singapore Second Link (RM1.6bil) and Kuala Lumpur Light Rail Transit (RM1.1bil). The news of contract awarding immediately sent the market into speculative mood on those potential candidates. Similarly, the news of the Government planning on privatising some of the its own corporations, such as Petronas, KTM and Pos Malaysia had also driven these counters into prime trading targets.

Dreaming: Will the super bull run come?

 

Besides, the ease of accessing bank credit by investors also contributed to the market rally. We noticed that a high percentage of loans was channelled to broad property sector as well as the purchase of securities.

As a result of massive inflow of foreign funds and the super bull run in stock market, Bank Negara introduced a number of selective capital controls in early 1994 to stabilise the financial system.

Recently, our Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak unveiled the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) with the aim to boost our gross national income (GNI) to US$523bil in 2020 from US$188bil in 2009. The programme is to attract investment not only from the Government, but also (more importantly) from domestic direct investment as well as foreign direct investment. In view of strong economic growth, our GDP growth is anticipated to increase by 6% this year.

In September, we notice that there was a net inflow of foreign funds again in our equity market. Over the past few weeks, the average stock market daily volume had been hovering above one billion shares per day. Almost every day, the top 10 highly traded stocks were those speculative stocks with poor fundamentals. In addition, we noticed that some retail investors had started to get excited again in the stock market.

According to Andrew Sheng in his book titled From Asian To Global Financial Crisis, there were two main indicators to irrational exuberance during the super bull run in 1993. The first was the amah (domestic maid) syndrome. We need to be careful when amahs got excited about the stock market. This was because they did not know what they were buying and would always be the last to sell. The second indicator was when businessmen began to speculate stocks in the stock market. This was because they might neglect their businesses and use some of their cash for speculation.

Comparing our current market situation with the 1993 bull run, there are certain similarities that we see, such as strong economic growth, ringgit appreciation, inflow of foreign capital and ease of credit. However, our local retailer participation is yet to get boiling, which may be the last push factor towards the bull run. Hence, once the participation of the local investors starts to get heated up, together with more inflow of foreign fund, that may be the signs of the market heading for a ‘mini’ super bull run.

● Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting.

M'sian market set for a mini-bull run this week?

By Danny Yap, Starbiz 8/11/2010

All signs point to Bursa hitting the magical mark soon

PETALING JAYA: The FBM KLCI, which has generally been on the upward trend, albeit slowly, is expected to test the 1,524.69 mark in the weeks ahead.

Analysts say it is not the case of “if” but “when” the it will pass this mark, but chances are slim that it will happen this coming week.

An analyst with K&N Kenanga said much of the good news on the government initiatives, including the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) roadmap, had been factored into the stock market.

He said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak had said in a CNN interview last Wednesday that a slew of multi-billion ringgit projects would be commencing and that the details of mega projects would be revealed “soon.”

“But any good news is unlikely to be announced in the next few days to spur the market significantly,” said the analyst.

He also said it was noteworthy to point out that 1,524.69 was a significant mark because it was the highest point reached before the global financial meltdown, led by the US sub-prime fallout.

“If and when the FBM KLCI crosses the mark it would technically mean that the Malaysian economy would have recovered from the global financial crisis,” the analyst noted.

The FBM KLCI reached its highest point at 1,524.69 on Jan 14, 2008 and had since been on a slow recovery.

The FBM KLCI created a milestone on Oct 29 when it breached the major 1,500-point psychological mark and had been testing the resistance point at 1,520-1,525 mark ever since.

Another local analyst said when the FBM KLCI surpassed the 1,520-1,525 mark resistance point, it would have strong and positive implications.

She said it would not only signify that the Malaysian economy had fully recovered from the financial crisis, it would likely make Bursa Malaysia a more attractive and stable stock exchange in the region in the eyes of investors, locally and abroad.

“It will be interesting to see the performance of Bursa Malaysia when the FBM KLCI breached this point, going forward,” she said.

She said the next thing to watch was the expected announcement by Najib on the specific projects to be rolled out and implemented under the ETP to stimulate and accelerate the economic growth of the country.

“There should be some exciting times ahead for the stock market, especially for companies that have secured projects under the ETP,” she noted.

The analyst remains optimistic about the stock exchange and the Malaysian economy.

“We have strong economic growth, ringgit appreciation and improved inflow of foreign capital, compared with 2009, and ease of credit. Couple with all these goodies, there’s the ETP projects which will be implemented soon,” she said.

So is the stock market heading for a mini-bull run, perhaps not next week, but in the near future?



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Divided We Fail, US midterm elections, 10 worst political ads

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 Divided We Fail

By PAUL KRUGMAN

Barring a huge upset, Republicans will take control of at least one house of Congress next week. How worried should we be by that prospect?

Not very, say some pundits. After all, the last time Republicans controlled Congress while a Democrat lived in the White House was the period from the beginning of 1995 to the end of 2000. And people remember that era as a good time, a time of rapid job creation and responsible budgets. Can we hope for a similar experience now?

No, we can’t. This is going to be terrible. In fact, future historians will probably look back at the 2010 election as a catastrophe for America, one that condemned the nation to years of political chaos and economic weakness.

Start with the politics.

In the late-1990s, Republicans and Democrats were able to work together on some issues. President Obama seems to believe that the same thing can happen again today. In a recent interview with National Journal, he sounded a conciliatory note, saying that Democrats need to have an “appropriate sense of humility,” and that he would “spend more time building consensus.” Good luck with that.

After all, that era of partial cooperation in the 1990s came only after Republicans had tried all-out confrontation, actually shutting down the federal government in an effort to force President Bill Clinton to give in to their demands for big cuts in Medicare.

Now, the government shutdown ended up hurting Republicans politically, and some observers seem to assume that memories of that experience will deter the G.O.P. from being too confrontational this time around. But the lesson current Republicans seem to have drawn from 1995 isn’t that they were too confrontational, it’s that they weren’t confrontational enough.

Another recent interview by National Journal, this one with Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader, has received a lot of attention thanks to a headline-grabbing quote: “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

If you read the full interview, what Mr. McConnell was saying was that, in 1995, Republicans erred by focusing too much on their policy agenda and not enough on destroying the president: “We suffered from some degree of hubris and acted as if the president was irrelevant and we would roll over him. By the summer of 1995, he was already on the way to being re-elected, and we were hanging on for our lives.” So this time around, he implied, they’ll stay focused on bringing down Mr. Obama.

True, Mr. McConnell did say that he might be willing to work with Mr. Obama in certain circumstances — namely, if he’s willing to do a “Clintonian back flip,” taking positions that would find more support among Republicans than in his own party. Of course, this would actually hurt Mr. Obama’s chances of re-election — but that’s the point.

We might add that should any Republicans in Congress find themselves considering the possibility of acting in a statesmanlike, bipartisan manner, they’ll surely reconsider after looking over their shoulder at the Tea Party-types, who will jump on them if they show any signs of being reasonable. The role of the Tea Party is one reason smart observers expect another government shutdown, probably as early as next spring.

Beyond the politics, the crucial difference between the 1990s and now is the state of the economy.

When Republicans took control of Congress in 1994, the U.S. economy had strong fundamentals. Household debt was much lower than it is today. Business investment was surging, in large part thanks to the new opportunities created by information technology — opportunities that were much broader than the follies of the dot-com bubble.

In this favorable environment, economic management was mainly a matter of putting the brakes on the boom, so as to keep the economy from overheating and head off potential inflation. And this was a job the Federal Reserve could do on its own by raising interest rates, without any help from Congress.

Today’s situation is completely different. The economy, weighed down by the debt that households ran up during the Bush-era bubble, is in dire straits; deflation, not inflation, is the clear and present danger. And it’s not at all clear that the Fed has the tools to head off this danger. Right now we very much need active policies on the part of the federal government to get us out of our economic trap.

But we won’t get those policies if Republicans control the House. In fact, if they get their way, we’ll get the worst of both worlds: They’ll refuse to do anything to boost the economy now, claiming to be worried about the deficit, while simultaneously increasing long-run deficits with irresponsible tax cuts — cuts they have already announced won’t have to be offset with spending cuts.

So if the elections go as expected next week, here’s my advice: Be afraid. Be very afraid.

US midterm elections 2010: the 10 worst political ads

The US midterm elections of 2010 will be remembered for a flood of toxic advertising. Here's 10 of the worst seen on TV

It used to be that TV attack advertising was the province of the most well resourced US election campaigns. But that changed in the midterm elections of 2010 as a torrent of donations, proliferating cable channels, the internet and falling production costs put the price tag within reach of even the most modest campaign.

The result was airwaves filled with outlandish claims and barely credible accusations from both parties – with corporate political spending unstopped by a recent court decision – obscure interest groups that sprung up almost over night.

Of the hundreds of ads aired on television during the 2010 election season, this can't claim to be a comprehensive list. But here's the 10 worst that we saw.

10. Ben Quayle, Arizona Republican primary

10. Ben Quayle trapped in a dark place Ben Quayle, the son of former Republican VP Dan Quayle, was in a contested primary for an Arizona House seat. His solution? An ad that begins with a ludicrous claim and ends with him wandering off into what could be a gloomy opium den. Just weird.

9. Jim Marshall, Georgia congressional election
9. Those damn San Francisco hippies A lot of ads attacked Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives from San Francisco. This one does more than most and even uses cliched images of California hippies. But what's most bizarre is that Marshall is a House Democrat, just like Pelosi. Not that you'd know it from watching this mendacious ad.

8. Carly Fiorina, California Republican primary
8. Carly Fiorina's silly Demon Sheep ad The silliest ad of the season, it became widely mocked as "Demon sheep". It looks as if it was conceived and executed by someone using heavy medication. Fiorina won the primary for California's Senate contest but this ad only harmed her image with mainstream voters.

7. Dale Peterson, Alabama Republican primary
7. Great ad but the wrong race This was a brilliant ad and only makes this list because it was so utterly inappropriate that it was almost a parody. Peterson was running in a primary for Alabama state agricultural commissioner, making this ad way over the top. Otherwise it's a masterpiece – unless you don't give a rrrrip about Alabama. (The voters didn't: Peterson lost.)

6. David Vitter, Louisiana Senate election
6. Why people distrust politicians such as David Vitter Louisiana doesn't share a border with Mexico but that doesn't stop Vitter from stooping as low as possible with these images and distortions aimed at his Democratic opponent Charlie Melancon. Just nasty.

5. Sharron Angle, Nevada Senate election
5. Viagra for sex offenders? Tax breaks for illegal aliens? The Nevada Senate contest between Angle and Harry Reid was toxic and several ads from either side could have appeared on this list. But this is the worst, with the outlandish claim that Reid voted to give Viagra to sex offenders. Other claims in the ad, such as Reid voting to give "illegal aliens special tax breaks" were also false.

4. Pat Quinn, Illinois governor's election
4. This man wants to kill your dog! An entirely vicious ad, claiming Republican Bill Brady wants to gas dogs. With the most glancing relationship to the truth, this is one of the nastiest attack ads of the cycle. And yet Quinn's staff also proved they could do far better and produced one of the best ads of 2010.

3. Christine O'Donnell, Delaware Senate election
3. I'm not a witch. Or a serious candidate Dogged by unwise public statements, including that she had "dabbled in witchcraft," O'Donnell's first ad was a chance for a fresh start. Instead the ad's opening line "I'm not a witch" confirmed in the minds of viewers that she was a flake. And the creepy "I'm you" catchphrase has become a punchline for a disastrous campaign.

2. Jack Conway, Kentucky Senate election
2. Aqua Buddha and Rand Paul Perhaps the dumbest ad of the season, "Aqua Buddha" may even have cost Conway a chance of defeating Republican Rand Paul. Dredging up an obscure event from Paul's student years, this ad lacks any subtleness while making hysterical smears that it couldn't possibly support. Idiotic.

1. Citizen's Against Government Waste, "Chinese Professor"
1. The worst of the worst A nakedly political ad aimed at the Democrats by a supposedly non-partisan organisation, this ad ladles out xenophobia and untruths in equal measures in conjuring up a new Red Menace. The cost of production must have been vast. As an example of the increasing spending power of outside groups distorting US politics, this is a prime exhibit. And a clever parody wasn't far behind.

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Asia's largest supercomputer production base established in Tianjin

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The Specialty Association of Mathematical and Scientific Software (SAMSS), the Research and Development Center for Parallel Software, and the State Key Laboratory of Computer Science jointly published the list of the Top 10 High-Performance Computers of China on Oct. 28.

On the list, the "Tianhe-1" supercomputer in Tianjin and the product series developed and produced by the Dawning Computer Base in Tianjin ranked at the top in calculation speed and in market share, respectively. After the list was released, Tianjin immediately attracted the attention of many computer industry insiders.

On the top-10 list published by authoritative organizations, the technically upgraded "Tianhe-1" supercomputer jointly developed by the National University of Defense Technology and the Tianjin Binhai New Area, ranked at the top for its peak speed of 4.7 petaflops and sustained speed of 2.5 petaflops. Its peak and sustained speeds are both faster than the published records of the world’s supercomputers.
Currently, the "Tianhe-1" has been put into operation at the National Super Computing Center in the Tianjin Bainhai New Area.

Thirty-four high-performance computers developed and produced in the Dawning Computer Base also ranked in the top 100 of the list, indicating that the base's share in China's high-performance computer market has exceeded 30 percent. Among the 34 computers, the Nebula, China's first supercomputer capable of sustained computing of more than 1 petaflop, ranked second on the list with a sustained speed of nearly 1.3 petaflops. Furthermore, four Dawning series supercomputers ranked in the top-10 of the list.

The Dawning Computer Base started construction in Tianjin in July 2006. The industrial base covers an area of more than 4 hectares and can produce 100,000 servers a year after the first phase of the construction project was finished. At present, the second phase of the project has been partly finished. In the following two years, the base will be able to produce 500,000 PC servers and 2,000 high-performance computers a year and will become the largest production base of high-performance computers in Asia.

Because the Tianhe-1 has been put into use in Tianjin and the Dawning Computer Base will soon evolve into the largest production base of its kind in Asia, the city has decided to include the promotion of supercomputing applications in its 12th Five-Year Plan.

During the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-1015), the Tianjin Binhai New Area will provide high-performance computing support to strategic emerging industries for more technological innovations and attach equal importance to high-tech public services, the development of the information industry, and the training of information technology specialists

By People's Daily Online

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See earlier post :  China claims supercomputer crown, a threat?
http://right-waystan.blogspot.com/2010/10/china-claims-supercomputer-crown.html

When sleep won’t come

A DIFFERENT SPIN By JO-JO STRUYS
jojostruys.com@gmail.com

Sleep problems are not to be taken lightly as they affect more than our physical and mental health.

IT is way past your bedtime. Your body is exhausted but your mind is still ticking away. You’re tossing and turning but you can’t seem to sleep. Or you find yourself waking up in the middle of the night or waking up too early, though you’re still tired.

If this happens for a few days or up to a few weeks, you’ve got short-term or transient insomnia. If it goes on for most nights for more than a month, it’s considered chronic insomnia.

I remember what my lecturer said about those suffering from chronic insomnia when I was studying psychology: “Whatever deep-seated fears you have or issues you are not dealing with in your waking hours can affect you in your sleep. Sometimes, they’re so deeply rooted, we are unaware of them but not being able to sleep night after night, gives us a clear sign that we are not at peace with ourselves.”

Years ago, I met a girl through work who was really attractive but she was teased about the fact she never dated anyone. No one knew her tragic story but when we all found out what happened to her with her first boyfriend, it was the last time anyone ever teased her again.

One night, she had a heated argument with him. He drove off in a temper and was killed in a car accident that night. To make matters worse, she later received a small parcel from one of his family members. As it turned out, he had purchased an engagement ring for her just days before his death.

She started having sleepless nights, imagining the life they could have had together and the “what-ifs” had they not argued that fateful night.

Six years later, she was still having sleepless nights and was diagnosed with chronic insomnia.

When she was in a counselling session, it hit home when she was told: “I’m sure you’ve tried everything possible to sleep at night and it hasn’t worked. All you have to do is something no one can give you medicine for. Just forgive yourself.”

Slowly but surely, she started letting go of the guilt of her boyfriend’s death and coming to terms with it. Peaceful sleep eventually found its way back into her life.

Lack of sleep is not characterised just by major events or traumas. Things like work stress, financial worries and anxious thoughts can trigger off short-term insomnia and affect our ability to focus at work.

According to the Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, a study on Malaysians between the ages of 30 and 70 showed that a staggering 33% of them had symptoms of insomnia, similar to global statistics.

In the United States, at least 70 million people are suffering from sleeping problems.

On the home front, it is important for us to bear in mind that a tired workforce is a less productive one. If bosses are increasing everyone’s workload, and everyone is putting in longer hours, it does not necessarily mean better work is produced. People are not machines and we cannot expect them to produce work, especially creative work, like a factory without rest.

When you’re stressed and overworked and surviving on lack of sleep, your creative juices might dry up and you’re actually better off stopping for a while just to recharge your batteries before resuming your work. It doesn’t need to be for a whole day. Think along the lines of quality rather than quantity.

Even five minutes of deep breathing at your work desk can clear the mind and calm your thoughts down. In fact, in an insomnia programme conducted at Northwestern Me­­morial Hospital in Illinois, those practising a form of meditation called Kriya yoga in the daytime, had actually increased their sleep time at night in just two months.

For all of us living in Asia, we have no excuses if we want to take up the ancient breathing and relaxation techniques found in tai chi, qi gong or yoga. Take your pick! So many of our public parks conduct group sessions together and it’s free of charge.

The health benefits of meditation are too long to list but it slows down our breathing and heart rates, so it’s incredibly therapeutic. Not to mention, it energises the body because it improves our blood circulation.

Sleep problems are not something to be taken lightly. Not only do they affect our physical and mental health, they even affect road safety.

According to the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, one in every five serious motor vehicle injuries is related to driver fatigue, with 80,000 drivers falling asleep behind the wheel every day and 250,000 accidents every year related to sleep.

Prof Jim Horne, one of the foremost sleep researchers in the world, said: “The test of insufficient sleep is whether you are sleepy in the day or if you remain alert through most of the day.”

For those of you who have trouble sleeping at night, here’s what may be of help. Your bedroom should be a place to unwind after a long day, so activities like reading a book or listening to relaxing music create the right atmosphere for bedtime.

Do not use your bedroom like an office. Ideally, you should be associating your bed only with sleep rather than stressful triggers. Avoid using your phone, taking calls, doing work in bed or even watching television because like cigarettes, these are stimulants. If you feel you must watch some television, do it in another room.

Avoid caffeine at night because it can stay in your system for several hours from the point of your last coffee cup. Don’t have a nap in the daytime or consume a heavy meal with alcohol before bedtime because it will only make it harder to fall asleep at night.

Last but not least, remember the same mind that keeps you awake at night is the same mind that can put you to sleep. Keep your thoughts peaceful at bedtime.

If you know what’s really bothering you, don’t obsess about it just before you sleep. It’s important to deal with your issues but find the right time in the day, away from your bedroom to really address them.
> Jojo Struys is a TV host, producer of content at www.kyanite.tv and an avid health enthusiast based in KL. Catch up with more of Jojo’s thoughts on her blog at www.jojostruys.com or twitter @jojo_struys.

Good movie generates economic spin-offs

Monday Starters - By Soo Ewe Jin

THE Lord of The Rings trilogy was one of the first books I bought when I started earning a salary. It is a classic that any father would want to introduce to his sons the moment they could read.

Although my two boys were voracious readers from young, they were not the least interested in the book initially. My version was very thick and the print was very small.

Things changed when the first movie from the trilogy, The Fellowship of the Ring, was released in 2001.

The marketing strategy included the books being repackaged into interesting versions and Tolkien soon became one of their favourite authors.

Now they not only know the Tolkien tale by heart, they can even remember the lines in certain scenes in the three movies. And I am the one struggling to remember who is Aragon and who is Boromir.

File pic shows Actor Elijah Wood is shown in a scene from New Line Cinema's "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring," in this undated photo. (AP Photo/New Line Cinema) 

 

The reason I bring this up in the business pages is that a movie is not just about box-offfice sales but also the economic spin-offs that it can generate.

And the LOTR trilogy is an example of how New Zealand reaped the windfall because Peter Jackson decided to shoot the movies there.

Jackson and his team scoured New Zealand for the most beautiful and diverse areas. The rolling hills of Matamata became Hobbiton, while the volcanic region of Mt Ruapehu transformed into the fiery Mt Doom where Sauron forged The Ring.

The tourism figures after the first movie came out went up by more than 10%. Overnight, New Zealand became Middle Earth.

And that is not to mention the 2,000 people employed during production which included artisans including prop builders, set creators, make-up artists and costume designers.

The filming was done in over 274 days in more than 150 locations all over the country; so you can imagine the supporting industries that benefitted from LOTR.

So, it is no wonder that when Warner Brothers threatened to take the long-awaited prequel, The Hobbit, elsewhere after some union dispute, the government was quick to react.

It not only agreed to make changes to its employment laws but also offered additional tax incentives to convince the Hollywood moguls to film in the country.

Prime Minister John Key was quoted in The Financial Times: “Making the two Hobbit movies here will not only safeguard work for thousands of New Zealanders but it will also follow the success of The Lord Of The Rings trilogy in once again promoting New Zealand on the world stage.”

An economist estimated that the US$500mil to be spent on the production of The Hobbit could be worth an additional US$1bil to the economy, which could certainly do with a boost after the recent earthquake.

The Kiwis certainly understand the power of a good brand. They now have Middle Earth and the All Blacks.

Malaysia, likewise, is blessed with breathtaking natural scenes with quaint towns and kampungs scattered throughout the country, as well as a very developed Klang Valley.

We were the setting for movies like Anna and the King and Entrapment. But we could certainly reap more benefits if we are prepared to see movie-making for what it is – fiction rather than fact.

We cannot be overly sensitive if the script takes certain liberties; one needs to give some latitude for artistic licence. This applies whether a movie is local or foreign.

A good local movie, after all, can make waves internationally and bring in the economic spin-offs as well.

● Deputy executive editor Soo Ewe Jin, who has been told that the two countries closest to Heaven on earth are New Zealand and South Africa, still dreams of visiting Middle Earth.