UK population nears 62 million

Birth and death rates, rather than immigration, are the biggest growth factor for second year in succession

 

 

The number of births has fallen, but natural change still accounts for the bulk of the growth in the population figure. Photograph: Roger Bamber / Alamy/Alamy

 

The population of the UK reached nearly 62 million last year despite a second successive annual fall in net migration, according to figures published by the Office of National Statistics today.

The population rose by 394,000 from mid-2008 to reach 61.8 million at the end of June last year. The number of people in the UK has risen from 59.1 million in 2001, a reflection of fact that net migration and births outstripped deaths over most of the past eight years.

Last year was only the second time since 2001 that net migration was not responsible for the majority of the UK's population growth. The other was in 2007-8.

The bulk of the growth from mid-2008 to mid-2009 was due to natural change – the difference between births and deaths – which was 217,000. Migration accounted for 70% of population growth in 2001-2, while in 2008-9 natural change was responsible for 55% of growth .

Net migration – the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants – fell 15,000 to 176,000 last year, but the total was still 23% above the 2001-02 figure of 143,000.

Natural change was down slightly on the previous year's figure but the number was still 250% higher than in 2001-2002, when 62,000 more births than deaths were recorded.

The number of deaths in the UK in 2008-9 remained at the same level as in 2007-8, but the number of births fell 4,000 to 787,000.

An ONS spokesman said: "Until mid-2008, the number of births was increasing partly due to rising fertility among UK-born women and partly because there were more women of childbearing ages due to inflows of female migrants to the UK. However the recent decline is driven by a decrease in the UK-born female population of childbearing age."

According to the data, women in their 20s and early 30s who are married are more likely to give birth than those who are cohabiting. But women aged 35 and above who were cohabiting showed fertility levels 58% higher than those who were married.

Last year's figures showed a 4,000 decrease in immigrants to 562,000 and an 11,000 increase in emigrants to 386,000.

The two successive falls in net migration, after years of increases, coincided with the introduction of the UK's points-based system for immigrants which limits the right to enter or remain in the UK to skilled workers. The introduction of the scheme by the Labour government in 2008 followed concerns that the far-right BNP party was winning support by playing on fears that immigration was stretching public services and pushing down the wages of the lowest paid.

The coalition government said today that new measures to curtail the number of migrants coming to the UK would reduce net migration dramatically.

The immigration minister, Damian Green, said: "We believe that immigration has been far too high in recent years, which is why the new government will reduce net migration back down to the levels of the 1990s – to tens of thousands rather than hundreds of thousands.

"Over the coming weeks and months the public will see us tackle this issue by introducing a wide range of new measures to ensure that immigration is properly controlled, including a limit on work permits, actions on marriage and an effective system of regulating the students who come here."

The 394,000 increase in the UK population last year amounts to a 0.6% rise, equivalent to the average annual rate of population growth since 2001. That compares to 0.3% each year between 1991 and 2001 and 0.2% each year between 1981 and 1991.
 
By Haroon Siddique

• Guardian.co.uk, Thursday 24 June 2010 19.03 BST
• Article history

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Asian currencies to rise in looming slowdown: StanChart

By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch 

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Asian currencies could be about to break their long-standing link to the global industrial cycle and transform into good safe havens if the world economy heads for a new major slowdown, according to some analysts. 

Though they have historically tracked movements in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, analysts at Standard Chartered said Thursday that the region's currencies may decouple from this pattern in coming quarters, thanks to China's new currency policy.

 Detail of a 1,000 New Taiwan Dollar note

 The [People's Bank of China] wants to show the market that  the new yuan exchange rate is genuinely flexible and more market-driven than the previous framework," Standard Chartered analysts said Thursday in a note co-authored by Shanghai-based head of research for Greater China, Stephen Green.

 The strengthening yuan, they added, is "medium-term bullish"  for Asian currencies by supporting widening interest-rate spreads with the U.S. dollar that attract capital inflows to the region.

As long as China manages to sidestep a serious economic slump, the region should ride out the coming storm with relative ease. China's economy will grow about 8% in 2011, easing from around 10% this year, according to the Standard Chartered forecasts.

"Global purchasing manager's indexes have peaked and will head lower in the second half," said Standard Chartered.

South Korea's won and Taiwan's dollar will be among those to lead Asian currencies higher against the U.S. dollar, starting from the fourth quarter, they said. The Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah and Singapore dollar were also seen as currencies that would benefit the most from a rising yuan.

The bank forecast that all major currencies in the region, apart from the Vietnamese dong, will be higher against the U.S. dollar by the fourth quarter of 2011, although the survey also excluded the Japanese yen, the New Zealand and Australian dollars and a few other units.

Chris Oliver is MarketWatch's Hong Kong bureau chief.

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Educating Malaysia the right way

QUESTION TIME By P. GUNASEGARAM
p.guna@thestar.com.my

Improving education quality and making it relevant is needed, not cutting exams.

THAT assessment is largely examinations-based is a significant part of the problems of the education system, but right now that is not the major one because there are so many demands upon the education system, the Govern-ment needs to prioritise them.

But first, let’s deal with the proposal to abolish the Ujian Penilaian Sekolah Rendah (UPSR) and Penilaian Menengah Rendah (PMR) examinations, reportedly to make the system less exam-oriented and provide a more holistic education.

Will it? Most likely not, simply because the problem is not just these two examinations but the overall emphasis on academic results. There will still be examinations at the end of each term etc.

The bad effect of abolishing these exams is we will have no clue as to the standard of our students until they reach Form Five. By then it will be too late to take remedial steps to help the poorer students.

We need UPSR and PMR at least as a gauge to measure the standard of our students. But at the same time, we should look at other means to reduce the emphasis on exams by introducing year-long programmes which are project-based and will take into account extra-curricular activities.

The priority now has to be to improve the quality of education and here are 10 ways to do that.
Yes, many of these steps require time but a start has to be made now.

1. Better quality of teachers. This is simply the most important factor. It calls for the raising of both standards and incentives for teacher education and the continuous training of existing ones. Without this, nothing else will succeed.

2. Ensure a minimal standard of physical facilities for schools. While quality of teachers is most important, all schools must be provided with good basic physical facilities such as a playing field, hall, laboratories, classrooms and everything else that facilitates learning.

3. A syllabus that reflects holistic education. The syllabus itself must reflect the aims of holistic education by including subjects that cover living skills. We should look at greater emphasis on daily commerce – for example opening bank accounts, budgeting and investing.

4. Real emphasis on extra-curricular activities. Emphasis means teachers who are trained in these. Over the years there has been less emphasis on teachers specialising in sports, for instance.
It is necessary to produce teachers who specialise in sports and, within that, in some particular areas of sports.

5. Single-session schools. For proper emphasis on extra-curricular activities and stuff such as additional classes and time for homework, a longer, single-session school would be ideal.

This has been talked about for decades but nothing has happened to date.

6. Provisions for English Langua-ge education. With even science and maths not being taught in English anymore, there is a need to come up with more imaginative ways to ensure that the quality of English among our students improves.

We all know that English is important but we still do very little about it and allow the issue to be repeatedly politicised.

7. Provisions for mother tongue education. The national school system may see an increase in enrolment if adequate provisions are made and time allocated for pupils’ own language or POL classes.

This must not be merely for show and there should be enough hours and resources for a proper education in the mother tongue. A single-session school system will facilitate that.

8. Less politicisation and greater ‘professionalisation’ of education. The emotive issues such as language and culture should be taken out of education and a more accommodative and liberal spirit that takes into account the beliefs of all races and cultures should be part and parcel of the national school system.
Profess­ionals should essentially run education with policy agreed upon and set by the politicians.

9. Continuity of planning – 20-year plans will be good. The education system cannot be left to the whims and fancies of successive education ministers but should be guided by firm policy and a long-term rolling plan of 20 years.

Otherwise, key milestones targeted in earlier years will not be achieved as priorities are shifted elsewhere as new education ministers come in.

10. Keep up to date with education everywhere. Education methods and means are not static anywhere and they constantly change and evolve.

We have to make sure that we keep with the trends by getting people with both breadth and depth and put them in charge of the educational agencies.

Without a doubt, education is a pet peeve among all Malaysians.

The deterioration in quality over the years is terribly worrying and the time for doing something drastic and at the same time constructive is long past.

The rakyat will be eternally grateful to anyone who can put education right so that we start producing a new generation of really educated Malay-sians.
But the question remains as to who or what that will be.

> Managing editor P Gunasegaram started working life 33 years ago as a maths and science teacher in a Government school.

China funds set to flow into M’sia

By RISEN JAYASEELAN
risen@thestar.com.my

Malaysia recognised as approved investment destination by China

PETALING JAYA: China’s banking regulator has recognised Malaysia as an approved investment destination, paving the way for an inflow of Chinese funds into this country, the Securities Commission (SC) said.

The SC said Malaysia had now become an approved investment destination under China’s Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) scheme and thereby joined the ranks of 10 other such recognised jurisdictions.

They are Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Germany, Japan, Luxembourg, Singapore, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States.

SC chairman Tan Sri Zarinah Anwar and China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) chairman Liu Mingkang signed letters of exchange in Beijing yesterday to formalise the recognition. CBRC is China’s banking regulator.

Zarinah said in a media statement: “The QDII programme presents a major opportunity for Malaysian capital market intermediaries to gain access to the Chinese market. They should therefore make full use of the opportunity to broaden their reach to this new pool of investors.”

The programme enables Chinese nationals to invest in overseas markets through approved institutions.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) had also confirmed that based on an existing memorandum of understanding with the SC, Malaysia is an approved investment destination under the QDII programme for Chinese fund management and securities companies.

CSRC is China’s capital market regulator.

“With the recognition, approved institutions regulated by CBRC and CSRC may now invest funds pooled from their clients into Malaysian securities, including equities, fixed-income products and collective investment schemes approved by SC.

“Such Chinese institutions may also engage the services of licensed Malaysian fund managers to assist with QDII investment matters,” the SC said.

Bursa Malaysia Bhd said the QDII recognition augured well for the exchange.

“It is aligned with our other initiatives such as improving our country classification for the capital market. We also see this benefiting us in terms of enhancing our attraction as a capital-raising platform for foreign companies, particularly Chinese companies.”

Bursa noted that Malaysia was the second Asean country to be recognised as an authorised market for Chinese investors.

Inter-Pacific Asset Management Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Robbin Khoo said this development paved the way for joint ventures and collaborations between Malaysian fund asset managers and their Chinese counterparts.

“Our relationships can now be reciprocal. Market players can now build relationships where each can be directly involved in the other’s market,” he said.

Khoo added that with Malaysia having promoted itself well as an international Islamic finance hub, there should be keen interest from the part of Chinese investors looking for exposure into syariah-compliant investment products.

It is understood that the Chinese government had mandated the QDII programme to get their institutional and other investors to diversify their funds into different asset classes and different parts of the globe.

“Commodity-based securities or derivatives could be a target investment by China, given its increasing bilateral trades with Malaysia,” pointed out a fund manager familiar with the programme.

It is still unclear how much funds will actually flow into the Malaysian market as a result of this development.
It is understood that Chinese authorities have approved its banks and securities-related firms under the QDII scheme to invest up to US$47.7bil so far. However, it is unclear how much of this has been invested in approved markets.

Canada was the last recipient to gain the QDII status in April. Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty had then said in a statement that the recognition would give Canadian financial markets access to up to US$8bil in investment capital.

China makes good on flexibility vow, yuan falls

China makes good on flexibility vow, and shows that floating the currency does not include one-way bets for appreciation

Enlarge image

22/06/2010 17:06

By Jason Subler and Lu Jianxin

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China pulled back the veil on its new currency regime a little further on Tuesday, appearing to engineer a fall in the yuan to make clear its vow of flexibility did not include one-way bets for appreciation.
Big Chinese state-owned banks kept the yuan in check, a day after its biggest rise since the currency was revalued in 2005, and the Foreign Ministry said change would be gradual, indicating the yuan's appreciation will be far slower than the pace demanded by critics in the West.
The two-way movement in the yuan is not great by the standard of freely floated currencies but is rare in China, where until this week the central bank had squashed intraday volatility via intervention on most trading days.

China has started to relax its control over the yuan ahead of this weekend's G20 summit of world leaders in Canada, breaking a two-year dollar peg that had been a lightning rod for critics who say the currency is undervalued and gives Chinese exporters an unfair trade advantage.

"China has backed up all the talk with action, and President Hu (Jintao) will arrive in Toronto later this week with tangible evidence that China is serious about increasing the flexibility of its exchange rate," said Brian Jackson, strategist with Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

"We still may see moves in either direction from day to day, but we think the trend in the weeks and months ahead will be for the yuan to make limited but meaningful gains against the dollar."

Under its new freedom, the yuan rose on Monday more than 0.4 percent, the biggest rise in a day since its landmark revaluation in 2005. It also came close to hitting its trading limit of 0.5 percent, an amount the currency can move either side of a reference point set each morning by the central bank.

On Tuesday, the yuan fell just over 0.2 percent.

The fall disappointed many market players, who had initially thought the central bank's decision to set the reference rate in line with Monday's close was a sign that it was willing to let the currency strengthen further.

State-owned banks stepped in to the market by mid-morning and aggressively bought dollars, traders said, suggesting authorities want to control the pace of the yuan's appreciation.

The People's Bank of China, the central bank, made no secret that it would not allow the yuan to appreciate too fast when it announced the currency reform at the weekend.

The Foreign Ministry reiterated on Tuesday that any change in the yuan would come only gradually.

By allowing for greater ups and downs day to day, though, the central bank will move a step closer to its long-stated aim of developing a more mature market in which companies learn to hedge against foreign exchange risks, part of China's overall efforts to develop Shanghai into a global financial centre by 2020.

The central bank signalled another step on the way to ultimately allowing the yuan to become fully convertible on Tuesday, confirming it would expand a pilot programme under which companies can invoice and pay for imports and exports in yuan.

Still, markets and critics in the United States and other countries are unlikely to be easily convinced of the depth of the currency reforms unless they see a significant rise in the yuan.

Markets surged on Monday after Beijing's weekend vow, on optimism a stronger currency would boost the fast-growing economy's purchasing power.

But doubts about the speed of yuan appreciation had already begun to surface in the United States on Monday. Asian stocks then reversed their gains on Tuesday as investors took profits from the rally on Monday.

Commodities also pared their gains, as did commodity-linked currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars.

HOW FLEXIBLE?

Many economists see China's currency strengthening further in coming days but at a very modest pace, further diluting hopes for big market gains.

A Reuters poll of 33 economists forecast the yuan would rise to 6.67 per dollar by the end the year, a increase of 2.4 percent from late last week before China's policy announcement and similar to the appreciation implied by offshore non-deliverable forwards.

The central bank is likely using a basket of currencies as a reference for the exchange rate, meaning that if other currencies such as the euro start to strengthen again, the yuan could rise against the dollar with them, said Ha Jiming, chief economist for China International Capital Corp in Beijing.

"There's an automatic adjustment mechanism embedded in this policy," Ha told Reuters Insider TV.
"By using a basket of currencies as a reference, it means that when the dollar appreciates against the euro, the RMB could appreciate against the euro as well but may not necessarily appreciate against the dollar. And the opposite is true."

Even with such increased movement expected in the long run, the challenge for China going into this weekend's G20 summit will be to convince other countries that it has made a genuine move to a more flexible currency.

"We're obviously encouraged, but we'll be monitoring the progress," White House spokesman Bill Burton said in Washington. "Implementation here is going to be key, and so we're just going to be keeping an eye on that."
Canada's Prime Minister Stephen Harper made a similar point.

"The proof will be in the pudding over time," he told Reuters in an interview.

"But I think it's fair to say this is a very positive announcement by China. More broadly it does show China not simply doing some positive things, but China assuming a more global view," he said.

(Additional reporting by Koh Gui Qing and Karen Yeung; additional writing by Wayne Cole; Editing by Neil Fullick)