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Sunday 4 August 2013

Youngsters lured by power, money and glamour !

Peddling drugs: Crime offenders are not just getting younger but also more aggressive, preferring ‘high-risk, big-gain’ offences to petty crime.

Serious crimes are no longer just committed by hardened criminals. There has been a rise in the number of cases involving teenagers and youngsters.

BOON was only 16 when he was recruited by a gang. Within months, he was peddling the party drug “ice” at nightspots. “I rose up the ranks very fast and was given the nickname ‘Tiger’.

“The gang leader trusted me and I was even allowed to help ‘manage the girls’ (prostitutes),” recalls the school dropout who comes from a broken home.

Married at the age of 20, Boon decided to leave his life of crime and is now working as a dishwasher in the United Kingdom.

“My wife left me and I have a little daughter to think about now. I need to earn enough to ensure a good future for her,” he adds.

Boon believes that if he had not walked away as he did then, he would have “progressed” to heavier crimes and probably end up in jail.


Young and in trouble

Lured by power, money and glamour, more teenagers and other youngsters are getting involved in serious crimes and living on the edge. Boon is one of the lucky ones who managed to break out of the vicious cycle.

Crime offenders are not just getting younger but also more aggressive, preferring “high-risk, big-gain” offences to petty crime, psychologist and criminologist Dr Geshina Ayu Mat Saat observes.

“Influenced by the glamorous lifestyles of local and foreign celebrities, movies and social networking on the Internet, more youngsters are purposely exposing themselves to criminal activities. Their level of aggression (as seen in the severity of their crimes) is today almost on par with their adult counterparts,” adds Dr Geshina, who is with Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Forensic Science Programme.

Her interviews with juveniles indicate that they see involvement in serious crimes as more exciting because they get a sense of power and higher monetary reward.

“Their logic is, why get involved in petty thefts when distributing drugs provides more money? There’s also an element of ignorance as to the punitive consequences of their actions to themselves and their families.”

Why so violent? 

There are many reasons for aggressive and violent behaviour.

Research has shown that there are the psychological and biological aspects, family dynamics, peer pressure, economic reasons, lack of morality and religiosity and environmental cues at play, Dr Geshina notes.

“There’s no one single ‘formula’ to identify the reasons for violent actions but the dominant determinant is having an anti-social personality which has been shaped during childhood,” she says.

Psychologist and family therapist Datuk Dr Mat Saat Baki finds teenagers and young adults more violent and sexually aggressive these days. Society should shoulder some blame, he says.

“Teenagers are getting more difficult to control because nowadays, society accepts violence as a way of life and a means of getting what you want. Take video games, for example. What’s popular in the market are video games that send the message: the more you kill, the higher you score,” he says, citing the easy access to violent pornographic material as another example.

“Exposure to pornography that glorifies the forced physical act of raping a girl sends the message that the more you control and dominate, the better you are. This can even result in forceful sex in relationships.”

He adds that youngsters are more brazen when they are acting in a group as they reassure and encourage each other to behave in a particular way.

“For instance, in a gang rape situation, they could be daring each other to ‘do it’ or (as a group), they want to punish a girl who has spurned the advances of one of their friends. Add drugs or alcohol into the mix, and the violence just escalates without them even realising it – it can get very dangerous, very fast,” he explains.

Safety activist K. Balasupramaniam says young criminals are not a new phenomenon but the gravity of the crimes and modus operandi are.

Young criminals are noticeably more advanced these days because of their Internet-savvy ways.

Having trained over 260,000 women from all walks of life in urban survival skills to date, he notes that Gen Y criminals have unlimited technological know-how thanks to the World Wide Web.

“Everything is at their fingertips – the latest technologies are a click away.

“They can buy almost any weapon online while CSI episodes and movies show them how crimes can be committed creatively.

“Unlike in the old days, we are not dealing with bicycle thefts any more. Young criminals have moved on to serious offences because they are an IT-savvy generation,” he says, adding that even children as young as nine now have Facebook and are able to see and copy what the adults are doing.

However, unlike adults who may think twice before committing an illegal act, juveniles won’t because they know that the law will be lenient with them.

He says the trend of movies portraying bad guys as heroes is also a problem.

“We are dealing with fast learners who are savvy in committing knowledge-based crimes. If nothing is done to curb this breed of young criminals, I fear the worst when Gen Z comes along.”

Dr Geshina, who works with many agencies including the police, is currently doing a holistic study of juvenile behaviour.

Her research aims to determine the reasons for juvenile involvement in crime, their profiles and contri­buting factors, and to chart criminal pathways based on adult criminal behaviour.

“One element in our study is aggressive behaviour,” she says. “The levels (of their aggressiveness) are also higher compared with normal members of the public.” The study is slated for completion by the end of the year.

Nipping crime in the bud 

Education and family intimacy are ways to curb aggression, violent and criminal behaviour, Dr Mat Saat opines. For example, in the case of rape, teenagers must be taught to cope with their sexual desires and peer pressure.

“They must know how to express themselves and channel their sexual energy in a proper, non-violent manner,” he says.

Stressing on the importance of sex education, he says it’s a misconception to claim that it teaches students to sleep around.

“On the contrary, sex education is important because it shows youngsters how to love, care, respect and relate to each other. It is about the art of living and includes topics like fertility and relationships,” he says.

He says it’s not enough for parents to inculcate good values in their kids.

“You need to monitor your children’s behaviour and the crowd they mix with because, ultimately, no matter what you teach them, it’s their choice to act in a certain way,” he stresses.

“Parents are good at giving guidelines but enforcement is another thing. Teenagers will say ‘I know better’ and they will seek validation from their peers and check for themselves to see if what you’ve said is acceptable.

“Parenting now is very different from the old days so you need to change your approach.”

Balasupramaniam emphasises strong family bonds and civic consciousness to prevent a young breed of criminals from booming.

Describing civic consciousness as the “antibody to crime”, he says the police omnipresence is not a long-term solution.

“You cannot stop the Internet and you definitely cannot stop access to knowledge – good or bad, so we need to bring back the days when kids were trained to do the right thing,” he says.

Dr Geshina believes negligent and abusive styles of parenting also increase children’s risk of exposure to crime.

Older criminals and criminal gangs seek out vulnerable youngsters, she opines.

Children in the above situations are “willing to be involved in gangs either because it’s where they can get tender, loving care and acceptance or because their parents simply can’t be bothered with what they are doing,” she says.

Advising parents to play their part in not exposing their children to criminal elements, Dr Geshina says there are “potential criminal” signs and behavioural patterns parents should look out for in their children.

Look out for a drastic change in behaviour, bringing or hiding different sets of clothes that are inconsistent with the reason cited for leaving the house, she says.

“A common sign is withdrawal from family activities, playing truant or skipping classes. (Instead of being with the family) they prefer to spend more time, including at night, with their peers or older children.”

Another tell-tale sign is when the value of the child’s belongings are more than what the parents can afford.

Mood swings, abnormal sleeping and speech patterns, among others, may indicate drug use.

The way children behave with others can also indicate bullying and anti-social behaviour.

“If your children are behaving more aggressively and want to hurt others, don’t engage in aggressive confrontations and hurl accusations. It will only make them less likely to cooperate and want to rebel by getting even more involved in crime.

“There are better ways to address problematic behaviour but parents should have been more aware from the onset so that criminal involvement does not occur in the first place,” she says.

Mother-of-four K. T. Yew, 56, admits to being overly protective of her four daughters but believes she has no choice as more youngsters are in the news lately for serious crimes.

“Every other day, I read about serious crimes being committed. Many of those arrested are so young, some are still in their teens,” she notes.

She makes it a point to tell her daughters, the youngest of whom is 17, of crime reports and repeatedly warns them to be selective of the company they keep.

“I’m very strict but ultimately, it’s they who must differentiate between what’s right and wrong. I can only hope that the values I’ve instilled in them will keep them safe,” she says

By CHRISTINA CHIN The Star/Asia News Network

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CrimeWatch 2013 Ep04 Pt1, Online Sex Scam - 30Jun2013 [HD]

Costly mobile Net surfing overseas!

Data charges can go up to thousands of ringgit if phone usage not monitored

 
Be careful when surfing the Internet on your handphone while overseas — you may end up being asked to pay the price of a car.

PETALING JAYA: A mobile user was in the Middle East for 12 days and was slapped with a RM122,703 bill for data roaming. Another went on a four-day trip to Singapore and was charged RM23,000 for checking her e-mail during the trip.

Be careful with that smartphone. Surfing the Internet on your mobile phone while overseas can be very costly. If you are not careful, you could end up with data roaming charges exceeding the price of a car.

Even the big names are not spared. One “victim” of excessive roaming charges was Communi­cation and Multimedia Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Shabery Cheek, who received a bill shocker after a short trip to Indonesia.

“I only used data roaming for a few minutes towards the end of my stay but I was billed RM4,500 for it,” he told The Star.

According to the Communica­tions and Multimedia Consumer Forum of Malaysia (CFM), complaints against telcos increased in the last two years, with mobile data charges and data roaming being the main grouses.

How to save on your data

CFM said it received 1,191 cases on billing and charging last year. In the first half of this year, it received 1,018 complaints.
CFM director Ahmad Izham Khairuddin added: “The complaints used to be mostly about poor coverage, but they’ve changed since 2011.”

CFM was set up by the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission in 2001.

In the case involving the complainant with the RM122,703 bill, CFM mediated and the consumer was given an 88% discount, with a 10% rebate and partial payment arrangements.

The complainant, however, has yet to accept the settlement.

In another case, Sara Kamal (not her real name), 45, complained that she was sent a bill for RM23,000 after using data roaming for four days while on a business trip to Singapore in 2011.

“I was shocked when I got the bill as I had only checked my e-mail during lunch and dinner while I was there. The telco said it was because my data roaming was on. Even though the bill was settled by my company, I felt really bad,” said the manager.

The National Consumer Com­plaints Centre (NCCC), too, has received many similar complaints.

“Since January, we’ve received about 300 complaints on telcos. Two main issues are consumers disagreeing with the amount charged and being charged for items they did not subscribe to,” said NCCC deputy director K. Ravin.

Ahmad Shabery cautioned telcos to be more responsible in their billing.

“It’s illogical that a phone bill should cost so much. Companies should be more responsible when charging.

“Perhaps they should emulate credit cards and put a cap on how much one can spend on roa­ming to avoid cases where people get charged tens of thousands of ringgit on their phone bills,” he said.

Expert: High price of data roaming 'very possible' 

Data charges mobile internet

PETALING JAYA: It is “very possible” for you to be charged tens of thousands of ringgit for data roaming, said an IT consultant who specialises in customer relationship management and billing systems for telcos.
“If you check your phone bill, you will see how much data actually cost (refer to actual bill cut-out).

“In this case, for example, you have actually incurred RM15,467.70 for 1,546,770KB (1.546GB), which amounts to 10 sen/KB (kilobyte), but this is waived because of your data plan. If you’re roaming, it will definitely be much more,” said the consultant, who declined to be named.

For example, Celcom charges RM12/MB in Singapore, RM18/MB in Australia and RM20/MB in Britain on a pay-per-use basis for data roaming (with their roaming partners).

Maxis charges RM30/MB worldwide and Digi RM38/MB. However, all telcos have data roaming plans which are more cost effective. Pricing information was obtained via the telcos’ customer carelines and websites.

“All these prices are fixed by the individual telcos based on their pri­cing strategy and arrangement with their roaming partners.

“They vary from country to country, so your roaming charge in Singapore may be different from that in the Philippines, or Britain, for example,” said the consultant.

For comparison, a single A4 Word document page takes up about 15KB, while a one-minute YouTube video clip takes up between 2MB and 3MB.

“Data roaming is expensive because you’re paying a premium for a value-added service to data roam in another country.

“It’s like having nasi lemak and teh tarik in England,” he said.

Chances are, you’ll have to pay a lot more there than back home.”

We have stringent billing process, say telcos 

PETALING JAYA: Telecommuni­cations companies say they adhere to a stringent billing process to ensure that customers receive accurate and timely bills.

Celcom Axiata Bhd in a statement said it believed that one reason for a spike in customers’ mobile spending was that many users were not “completely familiar with the features of their smartphones and the third-party apps they support”.

“Various apps, especially those for social media, GPS and messaging, rely on data connections and geo-location services that can constantly run in the background and drive up data charges for those on limited quotas.

“We encourage our customers to take some time to familiarise themselves with any new mobile device by reading the manual carefully and learning how to turn off unnecessary services,” the statement said.

When asked how it was possible for a mobile user to rack up a bill of tens of thousands of ringgit when data roaming, Maxis Bhd sales and service head Tan Lay Han said: “Maxis is committed to providing our travelling customers roaming experience via affordable data passes in over 60 destinations.

“However, not all countries fall under this arrangement. Hence, customers will be charged based on pay-per-use rates in countries that we do not have preferred data roa­ming agreements with. Therefore, customers roaming in these destinations are more likely to incur high data bills.”

A Digi spokesman said that when searching for a phone plan, consumers should make comparisons first, as “information is readily available online” for them.

“Consumers first need to understand their usage patterns, ie, how much they usually spend for voice calls and SMS versus surfing or using mobile apps, to find a plan that suits their needs,” he said via e-mail.

Should there be discrepancies in their bills, the telcos urge customers to contact them immediately for clarification.

By LISA GOH The Star/Asia News Network

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Saturday 3 August 2013

Fitch downgrade bad for Malaysian stockmarket

People in the market are aware of the issue revolving around Fitch Ratings’ downgrade, hence it did not result in any immediate implication.

The situation, however, is a temporary hiccup, say market observers 

THIS week was a rough one for Malaysia. The stock market fell the most in seven weeks, the ringgit dropped to the lowest in three years and the yield of Malaysian government’s 10-year debt paper increased to the highest point since January 2011. That reaction stems from Fitch Ratings downgrading its outlook for Malaysia’s credit rating.

Market observers agree that the revised outlook is bad news for the stock market, but they also agree that the situation is a temporary hiccup.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index (KLCI) closed 1.25% or 22.46 points lower at 1,7772.62 on Wednesday. But on Thursday, the local bourse rebounded to close 0.3% or 5.2 points higher to 1,777.82. It continued its uptrend yesterday, advancing 0.26% or 4.69 points to 1,782.51 yesterday.

Inter-Pacific Research Sdn Bhd head of research, Pong Teng Siew tells StarBizWeek over the phone that there was a massive “knee-jerk” pullout by foreign funds in the equity market the day after the revised outlook by Fitch Ratings.

“On Wednesday, RM436.5mil foreign selling took place and it continued on Thursday at RM262.1mil,” he says.

He explains while foreign investors are prone to a cash out their positions in the market, the situation is instead cushioned by the local investors.

Yet, the sell-off could represent a temporary hiccup because Malaysia’s public finance (the reason for Fitch Ratings to downgrade its outlook) is considered old news, Pong notes.

He adds that people in the market are aware of the issue, hence it did not result in any immediate implication. “It would not hold the market from advancing”.

Areca Capital chief executive officer Danny Wong says that the stock market will bounce back again because the country’s strong economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are still robust.

“Those factors will drive the stock market to recovery,” he adds.

He notes that the foreign investors may use the downgrade as a reason to exit Malaysia.

“There is a concern that the downgrading may affect foreigners to exit Malaysia in a big way,” he says, noting that the impact could be minimal in the stock market but a greater concern for the bond market.

Public Finance

High debt levels have been a growing concern in recent years for the country, as the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio is among the highest in South-East Asia.

Malaysia debt-to-GDP ratio is almost touching its ceiling limit of 55%.

The country’s budget deficit had widened to 4.7% of GDP in 2013 from 3.8% in 2011, Fitch notes. It said the downgrade in its outlook was because it feels Malaysia’s public finances are its “key rating weakness”.

“I believe that the Government will pursue its target to reduce the budget deficit by 4% this year, or at least show a sign of reduction,” says RAM Holdings Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng.

The ringgit has depreciated further to RM3.25 against the US dollar as the greenback strengthens.

CIMB Research in a report says the depreciation of the ringgit benefits exporters, such as plantation, rubber glove and semicon players, as well as those with foreign currency revenues.

“Malaysia’s current account balance is expected to narrow to around 3% of GDP or lower this year,” its chief economist Lee Heng Guie tells StarBizWeek.

Since the first quarter, the current account surplus had narrowed to 3.7% of GDP. In 2012, current account surplus stood at 6.1% of GDP compared with 14.4% of GDP in 2005 to 2010.

He adds that the downward pressure on the current account is due to the slowdown in export growth and an increase in imports as the domestic demand grows.

“Going forward, we expect two developments in the balance of payments to influence the direction of Malaysia’s current account, which includes export earnings volatility and private investment growth picking up as a result of the Economic Transformation Programme implementation and import of investment capital goods for the construction, oil & gas and service sectors.

“The sustained inflows of private capital and a large war chest of foreign reserves will provide a strong buffer against the weakness in the current account,” he says.

He notes a deterioration in the balance of payments should not be a cause for alarm. “It is the speed, magnitude and cause of deterioration that should warrant a pre-emptive action”.

“Nevertheless, further erosion of the current account surplus and given that Malaysia also incurs persistent years of budget deficit, the emergence of ‘twin deficits’ if they materialise could flag investors’ concerns about their sustainability and net external financing issues to bridge the gap. This underscores the urgency for the government to take remedial action to contain the budget deficit,” he explains.

Response

On Thursday, Fitch Ratings head of Asia-Pacific sovereign Andrew Colquhan over a conference call said that a downgrade in Malaysia’s credit rating is “more likely than not” over the next 18 months and 24 months, after cutting the Malaysia’s outlook, highlighting a concern over the Government’s commitment for fiscal consolidation and budget reforms step.

“It is difficult to see the Government pressing forward any of those steps after the general election,” he says, adding that the rating could reverse if action was taken to address the fiscal issue.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak gave his assurance that the Government would address the concerns over the Fitch Ratings outlook in his budget speech this year.
“We have already put in place a fiscal committee, which is looking into some of this challenges that we face, and all these will be addressed shortly, especially in the forthcoming Budget,” he said yesterday.
Budget 2014 is expected to be tabled on Oct 25.

Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz says Malaysia has the capacity and capability to address its fiscal vulnerabilities in a gradual and sequenced manner.

“Malaysia still has time to do it, but of course it is now more urgent because the global environment has become more challenging,” she said, adding that policymakers were putting emphasis on increasing national resilience and boosting its potential to sustain economic growth.

The Government has targeted to reduce budget deficit to 4% this year, 3.5% in 2014 and 3% by 2015.

Bond yields

The revised outlook by Fitch also pushed up the yield on the 10-year Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) to the highest since January 2011.

On Wednesday, the yield increased to 4.13% and remain above 4% on Thursday.

“The pullout by foreign funds started in June 2012 judging from the decrease in the foreign holdings in MGS to RM137.9bil in June from RM144.5bil in May.

“The downgrade of Malaysia’s outlook by Fitch Ratings has compounded the impact as local bond market is still digesting what had transpired in the US Treasuries (UST) market on possible tapering of assets purchase programme by the US Federal Reserve,” said Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia chief executive officer Meor Amri Meor Ayob in an email reply.

He says that the local bond market is sensitive to the spread between UST and MGS. “The UST yields have spiked up substantially for the past two months, so have the MGS yields”.

“That being said, in the longer-term perspective, the MGS yields will depend on the health of the economic fundamentals, such as GDP growth, inflation outlook, current account balance as well as fiscal and monetary policy,” he notes.

Zeti says there is not reason to overreact over the recent sell-off of Malaysian bonds.

She adds Malaysia is a highly open market and that it could cope with such volatility because its financial market is one of the most developed among emerging economies.

By INTAN FARHANA ZAINUL - The Star/Asia News Network

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Friday 2 August 2013

How stolen handphones would be useless?

Retrieved goods: Some of the handphones and an iPad recovered from the businessman.

KUALA LUMPUR: Stolen handphones will be rendered unusable within three hours of the owners reporting the devices missing. And even changing the SIM cards will not reactivate them.

The system, to be introduced before the end of the year, is part of a government crime-prevention initiative to reduce phone thefts.

A telecommunications industry source said that industry regulator, the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC), issued a directive to telcos in April to comply with the new requirements for this initiative.

MCMC chairman Datuk Mohamed Sharil Tarmizi said the system was to reduce street crime and handphone thefts since stolen smartphones can be sold at half the retail price in the black market.

“Yes, we are doing this. Many countries like the United States, Australia and Britain already have such a system in place. We got the consumers’ backing,” he said.

[ Type in your image caption here ]

He said MCMC was ironing out some technical issues with the network operators before the service was launched.

Mohamed Sharil added that the telcos were not to charge their subscribers for the new service.

The operators had been told to instal an Equipment Identity Register (EIR) so that the 15-digit International Mobile Station Equipment Identity (IMEI) code that is unique to every phone can be blacklisted if the device is reported stolen. Each EIR will be linked to a Malaysian Central Equip­ment Iden­tity Register (MCEIR), to which the IMEI codes of stolen phones will be forwarded.

The source said all blacklisted IMEI codes would then be stored in the EIRs to render the phones unusable on any network and to block any attempt to reactivate the devices with new SIM cards. Once blocked, the phone cannot ever be reactivated.

“This can help reduce phone thefts and at the same time, assist the police to identify the thieves or anyone trying to reactivate the device,” the source said.

The telcos had been given three months to comply with the MCMC directive and the deadline expired yesterday.

Malaysia will be the first country in the region to introduce this IMEI barring system, according to the source.

MCEIR will be operated by the MCMC, which has outsourced the managing of the system to Nuemera Malaysia Sdn Bhd. The deal was signed about two months ago.

“Nuemera will operate MCEIR round the clock. It will be responsible for monitoring and generating the IMEI code blacklist. The information will be forwarded to all telcos within 180 minutes of the phones being reported stolen or missing,” said the source.

The source said the initiative would be extended regionally and the effort had been endorsed at the recent Asean Telecommunication Senior Officials Meeting and Asean Telecom­munication Ministerial Meeting.
The Star reported in December last year that the rising popularity of smartphones has made them one of the most sought-after loot.

Consumers laud move to block stolen handphones

PETALING JAYA: Consumer associations have given the thumbs up to the initiative to block stolen handphones from being reused or circulated back into the market.

Describing it as a long-overdue move, Federation of Malaysian Con­sumers Associations (Fomca) deputy president Muhammad Sha’ani Abdul­lah said it would contribute towards lowering street crime, especially snatch thefts.

He called on the Malaysian Com­munications and Multimedia Com­mission (MCMC) to work with other regulators in the region so that this initiative can be expanded to other neighbouring countries too. He was responding to a move to reduce phone thefts as part of the Government’s crime prevention measure.

Penang Consumer Protection Asso­ciation president K. Koris Atan said consumers would embrace the move as it would give them peace of mind knowing that their phones would be rendered useless if stolen.

He also warned telecommunication companies (telcos) not to charge consumers for this as the system was already in place.

Muslim Consumers Association of Malaysia secretary-general Datuk Dr Ma’amor Osman said while this was a good move, he was unsure as to how consumers would reap the benefits as the likelihood of getting back their lost devices was slim.

“I also hope this will not cost the Government much,” he said.

One mobile phone user questioned whether having such a mechanism could work a little “too well”.

“What’s the point of getting your phone back if you can’t use it any more? It is better off lost,” said music teacher, Susan Kuee, 39.

She is also concerned over whether unscrupulous parties could take advantage of the new system to maliciously block other people’s phones.

“Perhaps victims could provide some verifying details before they allow authorities to render a phone useless so that malicious people do not abuse the system,” she said.

- The Star/Asia News Network

Thursday 1 August 2013

Fitch downgrades Malaysia due to high government debts and spending


PETALING JAYA: Fitch Ratings, after cutting Malaysia’s credit rating outlook to “negative”, sending the stock market and the ringgit reeling, has said it is more likely to downgrade the country’s rating within the next two years on doubts over the Government’s ability to rein in its debt and spending.

The Government, in response to Bloomberg News, rebutted such concerns and said it was committed to fiscal responsibility, stressing that it would rationalise subsidies and broaden the tax base.

It said the economy was fundamentally healthy, with strong growth and foreign currency reserves.

Standard & Poor’s had last week, however, reaffirmed its credit rating on Malaysia and said it might raise sovereign credit ratings if stronger growth and the Government’s effort to reduce spending resulted in lower-than-expected deficits. “With lower deficits, a significant reduction in Government debt is possible,” it said.

It might lower its rating for Malaysia if the Government fails to deliver reform measures to reduce its fiscal deficits and increase the country’s growth prospects.

“These reforms may include implementing the Goods and Services Tax or GST, reducing subsidies, boosting private investments and diversifying the economy,” said S&P.

The downgrade in Malaysia’s rating outlook by Fitch on Tuesday took a toll on the capital markets, and sent the ringgit to a three-year low against the US dollar.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index closed 1.25% or 22.46 points lower at 1,772.62, and the ringgit fell to RM3.2425 against the greenback, its lowest since June 30, 2010.

The bond market, where foreign shareholding recently was at an all-time high, also saw yields climb dramatically. The yield for the 10-year tenure for Malaysian Government Securities rose seven basis points yesterday to 4.13%. The yield for the 10-year Government bond has climbed 77 basis points since April 30.

In a conference call yesterday afternoon, Fitch Ratings warned that a downgrade in Malaysia’s credit rating was “more likely than not” over the next 18 to 24 months. It highlighted Malaysia’s public finances as its key issue for the rating weakness.

Its head of Asia-Pacific sovereigns Andrew Colquhoun said over the phone that there was a concern over the Government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation after the May general election (GE).

“It is difficult to see the Government pressing forward with any fiscal reform steps or budget reforms,” he said, adding that the rating would reverse if any action was taken.

CIMB Research, in a note by its head of research Terence Wong and economics research head Lee Heng Guie, said Fitch’s revised outlook on the country was “bad news” for the stock market.

“While we believe there will be a knee-jerk selldown, the average lifespan for a rating outlook is about 18 to 24 months before a downgrade is enforced, giving Malaysia time to prevent that,” the report said.

They said the Fitch downgrade was a warning to Malaysia to improve its macroeconomic management, and was of the opinion that the Government had time to get its house in order.

“We believe the authorities will take the warning seriously and move to address any weaknesses,” they noted.

Both Wong and Lee, however, felt that any weakness in the stock market was an opportunity for investors to accumulate shares.

“The depreciation of the ringgit benefits exporters, such as plantation, rubber glove and semiconductor players, as well as those with foreign currency revenues,” they said.

Meanwhile, Areca Capital chief executive officer Danny Wong told StarBiz that foreign investors might use the downgrade as a reason to exit from Bursa Malaysia.

“There is a concern that the downgrading may affect foreigners to exit Malaysia in a big way. Hence, it created a ‘knee-jerk’ reaction to the market.

“However, I think the impact would be minimal on the equity market but the concern is on the bond market because of the 33% foreign ownership,” he said, adding that the outlook by Fitch was earlier than expected since the 2014 budget is set to be announced in two months’ time.

RAM Holdings Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng said the cut in the outlook by Fitch had rattled the market, but feels the country’s fundamentals such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth, high foreign reserves and current account surplus would soothe worries over any rating concerns.

“I believe the Government will pursue its target to reduce the budget deficit by 4% this year, or at least show a sign of reduction.

“However, Malaysia’s current account balance will narrow further by end-2013 due to a weakening in exports, although a deficit account is unlikely to happen,” he opined.

High debt levels have been a growing concern in recent years in Malaysia, as the Government debt-to-GDP ratio is among the highest in South-East Asia. At 53.5% as at the end of last year, it is higher than the 25% in Indonesia, 51% in the Philippines and 43% in Thailand, noted a report by Bloomberg.

The ratio for Malaysia is almost to the debt ceiling limit of 55%.

Fitch, it its notes accompanying its decision to downgrade Malaysia’s credit outlook, said the country’s budget deficit had widened to 4.7% of GDP in 2012 from 3.8% in 2011, led by a 19% rise in spending on public wages ahead of the May GE.

It believes that it will be difficult for the Government to achieve its 3% deficit target for 2015 without additional consolidation measures.

By INTAN FARHANA ZAINUL intanzainul@thestar.com.my