China three decades from now

CHINA in the Next 30 Years is a new collection of 17 essays published in October 2011 on the future of China, of which eight authors are foreigners. This is one of the few books published simultaneously in Chinese and English.

Reading the book in both the original and translatied versions gave me sometimes a complete different reading of the authors' sentiments, and I had to go back often to the original to find out what the author was really trying to get at.

This is a valuable book precisely because it reflected not only some of the leading thinkers in China but also a number of very original thinkers outside looking in.

The first essay by Michael Hudson of the Institute for Study of Long-term Economic Trends is nothing short of iconoclastic.

He sees the era of debt-driven consumption in the West (1945-2010) coming to an end, and China in the next 30 years must not only avoid the finance, insurance and real estate bubble (FIRE) trap, where China will be blamed by the West, but also go down a path in strengthening its real economy, solving the wealth gap and improving efficiency (subject to ecological constraints).

The future economic prospects are considered by three leading Chinese thinkers.

Prof Wu Jinglian, the most respected Chinese economist of his generation, argues that reforms have gone into deep waters due to the complex battle against vested interests and rent-seeking activities.

There is no alternative except to deepen reforms, particularly re-balancing the playing field between minyin (private) enterprises and the dominant state-owned enterprises.

Tsinghua University Prof Li Daokui regards the three great challenges facing sustainable development as an open mind, more inclusive and harmonious development and formulating China's role in global affairs as a major power.

Returned scholar Wang Huiyao examines the strengths and weakness of the “Chinese models of development”.

He clearly recognises that the pragmatic and adaptive models of the past may not work in the future as sustainable development faces a more complex, interactive and geo-politically fragile world, especially in the ecological, resources and energy issues.

The political challenges are considered by two thoughtful commentators.

In considering Chinese politics within the geo-political order, Peking University Prof Pan Wei argues that any bright prospects in the next 30 years would depend on three key conditions no economic vacillation, no political distraction and no international partiality.

He refutes the argument that there has been no political reform, since the massive economic reforms could not have been possible without significant changes in China's political system.

At the same time, the pillar of China's politics has been its civilisational constancy, based on its humanist democracy, meritocracy at all levels of government and a unified ruling group.

Fellow Peking University Prof Yu Keping identifies the challenges of governance reform as social inequality, corruption, social instability, crime, environmental degradation and ignorance of citizens' human rights.

He recognises the need for a realistic review of China's socialist democratic theories, but also a rethink of popular Western democratic theories.

On the new global order, Nobel laureate Robert Fogel's essay warns that China's future geo-political position may be stronger than estimated.

Taking a long historical and demographic view, he sees Chinese income per capita being double that of Europe by 2040 and accounting for nearly 40% of world GDP, significantly larger than the United States and Europe.

His higher estimates are due to currently favourable demographics, good education and resilience in the political system, overtaking aging population in the West with a different work and lifestyle.

Singapore diplomat Tommy Koh echoes the recognition that China will become more powerful in terms of soft and hard power, and wishes that China will continue to practice good neighbourliness, play a constructive role in global governance and embrace sustainable development.

Five out of the 17 essays are devoted to green growth, with the best article by Tsinghua Professor Hu Angang, who sees a Green Vision as China's third generation of modernisation.

He powerfully argues that the idea of greenness is essentially the ancient Chinese philosophy of harmony of man with nature and that innovation and realisation of green modernisation is a civilizational objective that has global benefits.

The message of cutting carbon emissions, clean energy, green technological innovation, and central importance of Chinese agriculture and rural development are reinforced by essays by Copenhagen Professor Bjorn Lomborg, Swiss agriculturalist Hans Herren, Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin and Shanghai Professor Li Wuwei.

The last and longest essay is an intriguing and wide-spanning exploration on China's “Civilization-State Model” by Malaysian-born, India-based scholar Tan Chung.

He argues that China is the longest surviving civilization-state that is actually a commonwealth of different tribes, languages and cultural communities that has lived within its borders for more than 2,000 years.



China has absorbed different cultures, particularly Buddhism from India, more recently Marxism from the West and has evolved its own concept of “grand universal harmony.

He actually laments the fact that many modern Chinese scholars have learnt “whole-hog Westernization of China” without drawing upon the inner cultural confidence of ancient China.

His suggestion that Chinese leadership is differentiating between the “kingly way versus the hegemonic way”, echoes an important book by Tsinghua political scientist Yan Xuetong, which I shall review shortly.

Professor Yan argues that modern statecraft depends on kingship, founded by humane authority and strong moral standing.

Hence, for China to be a superpower modeled on humane authority, she has to forge a harmonious society from which other states are willing to learn.

The fundamental contribution of this book is that it has pointed the way on how China intends to move towards a harmonious green economy through the recent 12th Five Year Plan (2011-2015).

This is a bold and arduous journey unprecedented in history in terms of scale and difficulties.

All hopeful global citizens must wish its success, because its failure could have geopolitical consequences beyond contemplation.

Andrew Sheng is president of Fung Global Institute.

THINK ASIAN By ANDREW SHENG

China's VanceInfo Technologies Tries To Outdo Indian Outsourcers

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Ron Gluckman, 10.26.11, 06:00 PM EDT Forbes Asia Magazine dated November 07, 2011

Two tech guys named Chen are trying to answer the question: Can China do IT outsourcing like India?

When David Chen met his future business partner, Chris Chen, in 1992, David was a Chinese student struggling to make ends meet in Southern California and Chris was working at a Great Wall computer store. Happy to find a fellow mainlander behind the counter, David put in an order for one of the cheap knockoffs the company sold. "It was all I could afford," he says.

Over the years, whether to fix a mafunctioning keyboard or brainstorm big ideas, they kept in touch. Today the pair, who aren't related, run one of China's fast-growing info-tech outsourcing businesses, VanceInfo Technologies. It's a long way from playing in the same league as the Indian giants--Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Infosys and HCL Technologies--but it does list blue chips such as Microsoft, 3M, IBM, Citibank and AirAsia among its customers. VanceInfo collected $212 million in revenue last year and turned in a $30 million net profit. This year consensus estimates call for $276 million in revenue and a $40 million profit. Analysts say revenue could jump to $345 million next year.

Typically, big companies turn to outsourcers such as VanceInfo to handle some part of their operation. The outsourcer supplies the office space, employees and the ability to scale up quickly to fill a need. Last year Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways delegated some of its growing IT and software development workload to VanceInfo, which set up an office across the border in Shenzhen. Cathay's chief information officer, Tomasz Smaczny, says outsourcing an IT operation pays better dividends than buying individual IT services or hiring more staff: "We didn't do this so much for cost savings as for effectiveness and increasing our capabilities. Outsourcing allows us to dial up or dial down as needed."

VanceInfo runs such offices around the country and works with some 25 universities to provide and train staff. Many of the offices are scattered around a huge new computer park on the outskirts of Beijing, though there's no way to tell from the outside--they often sport only the customers' sign. There's a big office for Microsoft, a customer since 1997, where VanceInfo worked on Windows 7.

VanceInfo also keeps its headquarters here. Despite the marquee clients, and stakes that make them both well off--Chris' 8.6% stake is worth $37 million, David's 0.7% stake $3 million--each Chen drives his own car, unusual for Beijing executives, and works out of a nondescript office when he's not traveling. David, 43, the company vice chairman and president, has files piled to the rafters in his. Chris, 48, the chairman and chief executive, sits in the next one, which does boast a window but it looks out at the wall of another IT office. "It's our style to be frugal," he says. "We're in an industry where there aren't big margins. What impresses our customers is good service at good prices."

The austerity is certainly part of the company culture. One example cited by Alicia Yip, a former Citigroup analyst who followed VanceInfo, involves the chief financial officer, who found that his flight to the U.S. had been booked in business class. "He quickly went online and changed the ticket to economy," she says. Another time, at a conference, she remembers that VanceInfo executives checked out of the pricey conference hotel and moved to a nearby budget inn.

Chris Chen grew up in Wuning, a remote village in remote Jiangxi Province that had scant electricity. His mother is illiterate. "She cannot even write her name," he says. Nonetheless, he scored high on the national college test and won a place at Tsinghua University, considered the MIT of China, and graduated in 1986. He didn't know anything about information technology then, so when he started working for Great Wall, then China's biggest computer company, "Some people thought I was useless," he says. "My major was mechanical engineering."



Chris' skills were more suited to an entrepreneurial age that hadn't yet dawned in China. He spent six years with Great Wall and was posted to California, partly to scout new technology. In addition to selling computers to walk-in customers such as David, he was always on the alert for opportunities. One arose when IBM asked Great Wall to translate its operating system software into Chinese. The profit margin didn't interest Great Wall. Chris pounced.

Raising money from friends and relatives, Chris started a business. That morphed into a company called Worksoft, which later changed its name to VanceInfo (see box, p. 38). It quickly enjoyed success in localizing software for China and helping foreign IT firms operate there. "We had no concept of outsourcing," says Chris. "We just did projects, focusing on opportunities to make money. If I knew anything about outsourcing then, we'd be much, much bigger now."

David brings a dab more international expertise to VanceInfo. From Fujian Province, he went to the University of California, Irvine, earning a computer engineering master's in 1994. He moved to Silicon Valley, where he worked as a software engineer at Oracle and a consultant at KPMG. After a decade in the U.S. he returned to China in 2001 and joined Chris. With his Silicon Valley background, David comfortably courts new customers and oversees operations. Chris is more of the strategist, as well as the closer. "Chris has great people skills, and is a good storyteller," says David.

But can the Chens propel VanceInfo out of the crowded ranks of midsize Chinese outsourcers and into the global big leagues? It's probably one of the three or four biggest outsourcers now. (Comparisons are tricky--larger companies, such as Insigma, Neusoft and DHC, get some of their revenue from software and product sales and other sources.) Analysts also see VanceInfo as one of the two or three best run and most reputable. Frances Karamouzis, an analyst for Gartner and the coauthor of a report last year on the Chinese outsourcing sector, praises VanceInfo's adoption of Western-style accounting, which led to a New York Stock Exchange listing in 2007; most competitors opt to trade in China.

The comparisons with India are inevitable. Outsourcing has mushroomed into a $70-billion-a-year business in India, while some analysts value the Chinese sector at $20 billion; CLSA predicts that it will reach $30 billion in 2014. "China is almost exactly where India was a decade or so ago," says Pierre Samec, former chief technology officer of U.S. Internet travel company Expedia. "I think it will follow the same rapid growth curve." VanceInfo set up an outsourcing operation for Expedia in Shenzhen.

But times are different, and China is a different country--it may never produce another Infosys. Just as the Chinese industry is today, the Indian industry was once very fragmented, with dozens of small companies vying for business. The industry underwent a rapid consolidation, but in China, where analysts have been predicting the same trend for five years, it's been slow in coming. Karamouzis says that when it does arrive, the key for VanceInfo will be how well it handles the numerous deals and the integration of thousands of added employees. It's done four deals this year, spending almost $9 million to buy three Chinese outsourcers and one in Australia.

A hiccup for VanceInfo over the past six months was the drastic drop in its share price after an accounting scandal at rival Chinese outsourcer Longtop erupted in May (see box, p. 36). With consolidation a key to growth, the lower share price leaves VanceInfo with a weaker currency for buying other companies. Indeed, of its four deals this year, it did the two before May with cash and stock while the two since May were cash only. But David says: "We are actually in good shape. We have a lot of cash on hand ($130 million as of June 30), and are still looking at acquisitions." He added that a lower share price could be an advantage in buying companies, giving the sellers more potential upside.

Another difference from India is that most of the Chinese outsourcing business is in Greater China--with Chinese companies or multinationals operating in China. Indian companies exported most of their work to the West (and have never been able to make many in-roads in China). VanceInfo's headcount numbered 12,542 at the end of the second quarter--up by 25% from a year earlier--but only 200 of those were outside Greater China. The company does seek to grow in Europe and North America by moving into consulting and business solutions, allowing it to travel up the value chain by taking on more lucrative projects.

But despite VanceInfo's digital culture, change can be slow. In fact much of the industry looks inward, because business has been so abundant in China. "This is a very Chinese company," says Samec, noting that there has been much talk of adding foreign expertise to help the company grow and especially to expand overseas, but little action. Says David Chen: "This is something we have talked about and agreed upon, but we have been slow to implement. We really need to step up."

Punished for a Rival's Misdeeds
 
VanceInfo began the year tipped as one of the world's hottest stocks. Then in May a scandal erupted at rival Chinese outsourcer Longtop Financial Technologies, hitting the shares of the entire sector. From around $32 a share, VanceInfo's stock fell to almost $5 early last month before beginning to rebound to around $11. And it didn't help that VanceInfo Chief Financial Officer Sidney Huang served as CFO of Longtop in 2005–06; he has not been connected to the scandal.

Investors were giving the sector's wave of listings increased scrutiny, albeit a bit late. Both Longtop and VanceInfo went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2007. Choosing the U.S. over markets in China opened the vaults to bigger investments, at the price of more regulation and paperwork. The scandal came to light when its auditor for several years, Deloitte Shanghai, resigned, alleging that financial information had been falsified.

By the time trading in Longtop was halted in August, over $1 billion in value had evaporated. Scores of lawsuits are pending and a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigation guarantees that the matter will remain in the news. "It will take some time to recover," says VanceInfo's David Chen. Yet he downplays any long-term impact. Rising costs and the yuan's continuing strength, he maintains, are bigger concerns that also contributed to the stock drop. Now, with a chance for the sector to feast on Longtop's clients, analysts see VanceInfo becoming a hot stock again, climbing to a $16 to $20 range. --R.G.

The Name Remains The Same
 
VanceInfo's first name was Worksoft, but the company later discovered a U.S. company called Worksoft. When it changed its English name to VanceInfo, it decided it didn't need to change the Chinese name. The first character denotes literature or culture, and the second, contemplation and thinking. In Chinese they sound similar to "vance," so the company chose VanceInfo for the English name. It's a play on "advancing information," says President David Chen. "It is really what we are about, to advance your potential." --R.G.

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