Bersih 3: 'Hand Gesture Politics' to 'Occupy Dataran' ?

Anwar has some explaining to do, says The Economist

KUALA LUMPUR: Video footage of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim during Bersih 3.0 posted on YouTube shows him making a curious rolling gesture with his hands to PKR deputy president Azmin Ali.

Within seconds, PKR supporters breached the police barricades and charged into Dataran Merdeka, prompting the police to respond with tear gas and water cannons to prevent a stampede.

In an interview with Radio Australia on Tuesday, Anwar denied that his hand gesture was a signal to protestors to breach the barricades, instead claiming that it meant “negotiate with the police”.

While the hand gesture is open to interpretation, a few outside observers had their own take on it.

“Mr Anwar has some explaining to do”, was The Economist's verdict and, here in Malaysia, Anwar's role in Bersih 3.0 has been criticised by people from both ends of the political spectrum.

At a PKR press conference on Monday, independent filmmaker Benji Lim accused Anwar of endangering the lives of protesters, as well as jeopardising Bersih's cause.

“The protest was completely hijacked by the opposition,” he claimed, before being bundled unceremoniously out of the room.

Even Bersih 3.0 chief organiser Datuk S. Ambiga noted Bersih's politicisation by opposition leaders, telling journalists that she “cannot control what they say”.

Anwar has dismissed any criticism of his conduct. Instead, at the press conference, he launched an attack on the government, accusing the Barisan Nasional leadership of behaving like Stalin and Hitler.

He went on to suggest his fate was comparable to a Nazi concentration camp victim a claim made on the exact anniversary of Hitler's death.

Political observers say that Anwar has often been seen indulging in “hand gesture politics”, revelling in grand spectacles but offering voters little in terms of a detailed blueprint for transformation.

Some say Anwar's “hand gesture politics” appears to have backfired.

Don't be surprised to see him spend much of the coming weeks and months explaining what his Bersih hand gesture really meant. -Bernama

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Bersih 3.0: More tests for Malaysian democracy

Bersih 3.0 and its aftermath show deep divisions in our society but many participants deemed it a good day for Malaysian democracy, despite the ugly end.

FEW events have generated so much commentary in so short a time as Bersih 3.0. By now gigabytes of photographs and video material must have been uploaded and shared, despite the recorded cases of seizure and smashing of equipment that occurred on the day.

One might have thought that this sheer amount of data might be able to provide a comprehensive picture of what really happened.

On the contrary, amid accusations of photo manipulation and devious cut-and-paste there seems to be enough material for those who have already taken sides to harden their stances, with no quantity of counter-evidence being sufficient to sway their positions.

As Deputy Higher Education Minister Datuk Saifuddin Abdullah — possibly the most erudite member of the Government — has said, Bersih 3.0 (and its aftermath) show deep divisions in our society.

Big turnout: Thousands of protesters outside Dataran Merdeka last Saturday.

I was not a frontline witness on Saturday. In the morning I attended the Global Donors Forum organised by the World Congress of Muslim Philanthropists outside the Middle East for the first time.

The event brought together civil society organisations from across the Muslim world to discuss how to improve and target charitable giving to strengthen the ummah.

I argued that philanthropy thrives when wealth thrives, and that Muslim societies should pursue open economies and democratic government so that they can compete intellectually, culturally and economically.

En route to the event, I had to negotiate through a police roadblock at Jalan Parlimen, and immediately saw columns of people percolating through the Bank Negara roundabout towards Dataran Merdeka.

Later in the afternoon, I was on Jalan Ampang and witnessed an orderly line of policemen guiding a horde of protesters outside KLCC in a scene reminiscent of the many marches I saw in London.

I was very impressed and excited by this, and thought of having a closer look after my previously set appointments at the former Istana Negara and lunch in town, as I was due at the nearby Royal Lake Club at 3.30pm (which had earlier been a starting point for many marchers).

Alas, it was around that time that chemical compounds were fired and sprayed into the crowd at Dataran Merdeka — whether due to a breach by agent provocateurs or genuine protesters who were goaded, encouraged or given false pretences — and the whole thing deteriorated.

This is where accounts diverge. It’s worth pointing out, however, that across the country and globe where simultaneous protests were held in dozens of cities (easily the biggest international Malaysian rally in history), there were no reports of violence at all.

As I have written before, I agree with many of Bersih’s demands. But I fully support the right of peaceful protest and have the utmost respect for my relatives, friends and colleagues (and many of their elderly parents) who took part that day, fully in the knowledge that they might be confronted.

They included people who might have little in common with each other, but were generally united in pursuing cleaner elections in our country.

Some friends did complain that the politicians took too visible a role, and it should have been more solidly a civil society effort, but this seems to be true peculiarly at Dataran Merdeka itself.

Certainly, many participants deemed it a good day for Malaysian democracy, despite the ugly end.

Most ugly of all — and indeed, heartbreaking — were the instances of alleged police aggression that day.

Though the aggression was later attributed to rumours of a policeman being killed by protesters, that these violent instances occurred have now been recognised either tacitly (by way of apology to victims) or explicitly by the Prime Minister, Home Minister and Inspector-General of Police.

Now that they have been admitted, every Malaysian should hope that investigations are conducted properly.

If, as some photographs suggest, some of these thugs are not policemen at all, they and whoever issued them with uniforms must be punished. Of course, any thugs among the protesters should also face justice.

> Tunku ’Abidin Muhriz is the president of IDEAS.

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Malaysia's Minimum wage’s benefits and effects

Minimum wage’s benefits are plenty

I HAVE been waiting for a reason to talk about a pizza delivery man I met in a lobby of an condominium while waiting for a lift to arrive. It was in the evening and he was delivering pizza to one of the residents. I struck a conversation about his job, his salary and his aspirations, and got enough from the chat to get his views that the decent salary he was making was insufficient.

The young man claimed he was making RM2,200 a month whizzing through traffic, despite the weather, to send piping-hot pizzas to customers from between 10am and midnight.

He said that after sending back money to his parents in Pahang and paying for his lodging and expenses to live in Kuala Lumpur, the salary was just not enough. Furthermore, the job was wearing him down and he wants to do something else, but is finding it hard to get a new skill with the demands of his current job and the obligations he has.

His story will resonate with many others who are struggling to make ends meet, and whatever little assistance they get will surely be welcome. That small bit of help though came for millions of Malaysians by way of a new minimum wage the Government announced on April 30.

Workers in Peninsular Malaysia were promised a floor wage of RM900 a month and those in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan RM800 a month. The minimum wage will take effect six months from the time the law is gazetted to allow industries to make adjustments to comply with the new law. Non-professional services companies with fewer than five employees will be given a further six months to make their adjustments.

The higher minimum wage will benefit a reported over three million private-sector employees and the net effect economists have calculated is a negligible increase in unemployment and a small drop in investments.

Economic growth and the investments that will take place and the promise of new jobs will be more than enough to offset those small impediments.

One drawback many can expect is higher prices. You can bet employers will pass on the higher staff costs to customers, but the quantum should be kept in check given the competition that exists in business.

The benefits, though are plenty.

The higher wage that almost a third of the workforce will benefit from will be a boost to the economy, which in recent years has been driven by consumption.

The higher wages will also manifest in other benefits for workers. A higher base salary will mean higher contributions to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and the extra will go some way to shore up the retirement savings of many Malaysians.

Companies will see an increase in their payments to the EPF, but with productivity having risen 6.7% per year over the past 10 years and companies making a lot more money than before judging by profits announced by listed companies and tax collection by the Government, they can afford to pay a little more for their workers without diving into bankruptcy.

With a third of the workforce soon enjoying a higher base salary, the increased income will go some way to satisfy the requirement of banks under the new responsible lending guidelines.

Under the new loan criteria, banks will look at the basic salary and decide whether a person can afford a loan. With higher salaries, maybe that will be enough for low salaried people to qualify for a loan to get the small car or home they need.

The minimum wage will help those in need. It might help those like the pizza delivery man if the minimum salary together with allowances are fixed. It is a start that many Malaysians will be thankful.

● Deputy news editor Jagdev Singh Sidhu needs to get a lucky charm ahead of this weekend's FA Cup final.

Minimum wage effects manageable

Effects of the minimum wage policy are expected to be manageable and unlikely to have a significant impact on companies, with rubber glove manufacturers seen to be the hardest hit, analysts said.

UOB KayHian Research head Vincent Khoo said there will be no significant wage rise for most listed companies, especially given the flexibility for the floor wage to include allowances and benefits, hence no wage restructuring is required.

"However, small and medium enterprises in particular, may still be impacted by higher overtime and there may be an upward cascade effect for some listed companies."

In terms of sector, he said glove manufacturing remains the most impacted but the effect should be significantly softened with the incorporation of some allowances into wage calculations.

"Minimum wages would lower industry profits by as much as over 10% as a significant portion of the industry's staff force earn only RM600 to RM700 a month before allowances and benefits."

Consumer companies emerge as the winner as overall demand for fast-moving consumer goods should improve with higher disposable income among low-wage earners.

"We expect manufacturers to raise product prices during the implementation grace period to maintain profitability," Khoo said.

Affin Investment Bank economist Alan Tan said: "The direct effect of a minimum wage increase will result in increases in the relative prices of goods produced. However, even if minimum wages were to lift prices (especially in low-wage industries), we expect the inflationary impact to be manageable, as the minimum wage is set at a relatively low level, which will not raise production costs and overall price level significantly.

"Overall, we expect the broader economic effects of minimum wage in the country on company profits, prices, and inflation, to be manageable and unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy."

However, CIMB Research said higher wages will release pent-up consumption, albeit with some inflationary impact.

"Our view is that an appropriate minimum wage could over time achieve a big push, which is moving the low-wage, low-consumption and informal labour market to a high-wage, high-consumption and formal labour market."

For rubber glove makers, HwangDBS Vickers Research said staff costs would increase by 17-22% while earnings could fall by 5-19% .

"We expect the additional staff costs to be passed to customers over time, but in the immediate term, we expect earnings and margins to be dampened."

It said Hartalega Holdings Bhd is the least affected while Top Glove Corp Bhd would be most affected.

"Based on our estimates, Hartalega's salary costs could rise by RM10 million a year, an increase of 17% and this would lower the 2013 estimated net profit by 5%. For Top Glove, staff costs could rise as much as RM39 million (an increase of 22%), denting 2013 earnings by 19%. Meanwhile, we estimate Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd's annual salary costs to increase by RM18 million (a rise of 17%) and net profit to fall by 13%."

However, it said that if fixed allowances or cash payments are allowed in the calculation for minimum wages, the impact will be softened.

It maintained a hold on Top Glove at a target price of RM4.80 and Hartalega (RM7.70) and Kossan (RM3.30).

Affin Investment Bank said rubber glove makers have indicated that they will most likely reduce or re-categorise certain allowances to help offset the increase in their workers' basic salary.

Ee Ann Nee
sunbiz@thesundaily.com

Glove makers to gain from wage rule in long run

PETALING JAYA: While the new minimum wage will dent glove makers’ earnings in the near term, it is expected to be beneficial for the industry in the long run, CIMB Research said.

“It will encourage glove makers to reduce their use of low-skilled labour and improve their manufacturing processes by using more advanced technology and methods.

“Also, we believe that wage inflation will make the smaller glovemakers less competitive and catalyse consolidation in the sector. This will strengthen the positions of the large glove makers, favouring those with more efficient processes such as Hartalega (Holdings Bhd),” the brokerage said in a note to clients.

On Monday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak announced the details of the country’s wage floor for the private sector, with the monthly benchmark set at RM900 for Peninsular Malaysia and RM800 for Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan.

This translates to an hourly rate of RM4.33 and RM3.85 respectively.

Some analysts say the new minimum wage rule may encourage glove makers to reduce their use of low-skilled labour and improve their manufacturing processes by using more advanced technology and methods.

The policy applies to all workers in the private sector, save for those in domestic services, but it will only take effect six months after the Minimum Wages Order is gazetted.

The law, which will be reviewed every two years, affords some flexibility to employers as they can absorb a certain amount of allowances and fixed cash payments in calculating the new wages.

According to CIMB Research’s forecasts, the minimum wage could shave some 1% to 7% off glove makers’ financial year 2013 core net profit, but the brokerage has kept its “neutral” rating for the sector and estimates for the companies under its coverage as they may yet find ways to mitigate the impact of higher staff costs.

Other research houses have also maintained their ratings pending further clarification from the companies and the actual gazetting of the law.

Among the glove makers, Hartalega is the least affected by the setting of a wage floor due to its highly automated production facilities and high margins relative to its peers.

“We believe Hartalega will emerge the strongest from the higher wages as its operations are already lean and management is working hard to further automate its manufacturing process.

“With the highest margins (lowest post-tax cost base), technologically advanced manufacturing process and an aggressive eight-year expansion plan, Hartalega has the most wiggle room in the sector to price gloves competitively and gain market share,” CIMB Research said.

Management was aggressively working on further automating the stripping and packaging portions of its manufacturing process to reduce the use of low-skilled labour and optimise operating expenditure, it added.

CIMB Research said Top Glove Corp Bhd would be the hardest hit as a result of low margins and an oversupply for its gloves that could take two to three years to work off.

“We believe it would be challenging for management to pass on the cost of the minimum wage to customers. This would put further pressure on margins and Top Glove’s high-volume low-price model.”

Top Glove shares have reflected this, with the counter losing 13 sen, or 2.72%, to RM4.65, making it one of the day’s top losers.

In contrast, Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd and Supermax Corp Bhd dipped one and two sen respectively to RM3.24 and RM1.87 yesterday, while Hartalega was unchanged at RM7.80.

For Supermax, CIMB Research said the manufacturer was ramping up nitrile production to 53% of capacity by financial year 2013. This could help curb rising staff costs, the brokerage added, as the cash cost of producing nitrile gloves was 20% lower than natural rubber.

Kossan, meanwhile, is poised to tap on the growth in China, where glove usage is a mere two gloves per person per annum versus 50 in Europe and 96 in the United States. Kossan entered the market in financial year 2012 via its 53%-owned Cleanera HK Ltd.

Moving forward, HwangDBS Vickers Research expects the additional staff costs to be passed on to customers over time.

Affin Investment Bank, in a report, also noted that Top Glove had previously said it would likely pass on 80% to 90% of the higher costs by increasing prices, which could prompt other glove makers to do the same. - The Star Business

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Eurozone unemployment hits record 10.9% as manufacturing slumps to recession!

Eurozone unemployment hit a record in March, with Spain's 24.1% rate setting the pace.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Unemployment in the eurozone rose to 10.9% in March, another sign of the broad economic weakness and possible recession across the continent.

The unemployment rate across the broader 27-nation European Union remained at 10.2% in March, according to a organization report Wednesday.

10 largest economies

But the 17-nation eurozone unemployment edged up from 10.8% in February. The EU and eurozone rates are the highest since the creation of the common euro currency in 1999.

There are now 13 nations in Europe struggling with double-digit percentage unemployment, led by a 24.1% rate in Spain, which was a record high, and 21.7% in Greece.

The rising jobless rates are primarily blamed on the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, which has forced governments to take tough austerity measures to cut spending.

Europe's next recession risk: Germany

There are 12 countries in Europe that have had two or more consecutive quarters in which their gross domestic product has dropped -- a condition many economists say define a recession. Nine of the countries are in the eurozone, and three use their own currency.

The United Kingdom, which had an 8.2% unemployment rate in its most recent reading, is the largest economy now in recession.

The entire EU and and eurozone are widely believed to be in recession as well, a fact likely to be confirmed when their combined GDPs are reported on May 15.

Even some of the healthier countries in Europe are likely to meet that criteria, including Germany, the EU's largest economy and one in which unemployment is 5.6%, the fourth-lowest rate on the continent.

German GDP declined 0.2% in the fourth quarter and many economists are forecasting another drop in the first quarter, suggesting Germany could be in recession soon.



By contrast to Europe, the U.S. unemployment rate has been steadily falling, reaching 8.2% in March. The jobless rate here reached a 26-year high of 10.0% in October 2009, but it has declined in six of the last seven months, shaving almost a full percentage point off the 9.1% rate of last August.

Economists surveyed by CNNMoney forecast that the rate will stay unchanged in the April jobs report this Friday, while hiring is expected to pick up to a gain of 160,000 jobs

By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney, Newscribe : get free news in real time

Eurozone manufacturing heads towards recession

 

(BRUSSELS) - Gloom over eurozone manufacturing deepened in April, highlighting the impact of policies to control budgets and signalling recessionary pressures, a Markit survey showed on Wednesday.

A key index of activity based on a survey by Markit fell to almost the lowest level for three years.

Markit publishes closely watched leading indicators of economic activity and in its latest survey for its purchasing managers' index the firm said: "The eurozone manufacturing downturn took a further turn for the worse in April."

The adjusted manufacturing PMI figure, closely watched as an indicator of economic trends, fell to 45.9 from 47.7 in March.

A figure of below 50 points to contraction and Markit noted that "the headline PMI has signalled contraction in each of the past nine months."

The chief economist at Markit, Chris Williamson, said: "Manufacturing in the eurozone took a further lurch into a new recession in April, with the PMI suggesting that output fell at (a) worryingly steep quarterly rate of over 2.0 percent."

He said that "austerity in deficit-fighting countries is having an increasing impact on demand across the region" and that "even German manufacturing output showed a renewed decline."

Williamson commented that the latest forecast from the European Central Bank "of merely a slight contraction of GDP (gross domestic product) this year is therefore already looking optimistic."

He added: "However, with the survey also showing inflationary pressures to have waned, the door may be opening for further stimulus."

His remarks highlight controversy over policies in many countries to correct budget deficits and heavy debt to install confidence on debt markets where governments borrow.

There are increasing warnings that the eurozone must raise economic growth, but opinions differ on the best route, with some saying that budget austerity opens the way to structural reform and competitiveness and others saying that extra stimulus is essential.

Markit said that "the April PMIs also indicated that manufacturing weakness was no longer confined to the region's geographic periphery."

In Germany, which has the biggest economy in the eurozone and has shown broad resilience to downturn elsewhere, Markit also noted a setback.

"The German PMI fell to a 33-month low, conditions deteriorated sharply again in France and the Netherlands also contracted at a faster rate," it said.

Markit said: "There was no respite for the non-core nations either, with steep and accelerating downturns seen in Italy, Spain and Greece. Only the PMIs for Austria and Ireland held above the 50.0 no-change mark."

Markit said that manufacturers reported weak demand from clients inside and outside the zone and this had hit even German companies.

The worsening outlook for eurozone manufacturing was also affecting the job market, Markit said, just as eurozone data put the unemployment rate at a record high level.

In manufacturing "job losses were reported for the third straight month in April, with the rate of decline the sharpest in over two years," Markit said on the basis of its survey. - AFP.

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Malaysia's Education Setback

We need to know where we truly are and accept that before we can move the education system forward.

Hishammuddin Hussein, Malaysian Minister for Education.>

THE experts tell us one thing about any programme of self-improvement. That includes the whole gamut of losing weight, improving self-confidence, widening your knowledge base, playing a better game of tennis, speaking well, aiming to win a gold medal at the Olympics, climbing Mount Everest, and, yes, to drastically improving the education system.

We must know our starting point.

If you want to lose weight, you must accept that you are overweight and chart a programme to reduce your weight over time. It’s a good idea to lose it healthily. You don’t want to lose too much or you may put it back in half the time that it took you to lose it.

You want a permanent solution to the problem. You want to take the weight off and keep it off through a re-education of your eating and lifestyle programme so that the changes that you institute are for life.

But before you choose a programme you need to know if it’s good for you, if you can follow its regimen, if it makes sense and if it is in line with all known scientific principles.

You have to be sure that it has a good chance of working and it does not make you worse off than you started with.

Choose the wrong programme and you wreck your body and physique forever and make it nearly impossible to reprogramme your body so that its metabolic rate does not always stay on starvation alert caused by your ill-considered move to go on a severe diet.

Changing the education system is similar to weight reduction, only enormously more complicated.

But you first have to admit that your education system needs changing. If you hang on to that mistaken, myopic belief that your education is better than those of most developed countries, you are sunk.

If you are 200 pounds and five foot three, there is no way you are not overweight even if you have tonnes of muscle!

The authorities now quote a study by Introspek Asia that in a survey of 1,800 Malaysian adults, 55% believed our education system to be comparable to other countries, without saying which countries.

And 35% believed education standards to be higher than developed countries, again without stating which countries.

The short and long of this is without much more detail, this survey amounts for little if anything, and if its methodology is right and defensible, we may even have to come to the unpalatable conclusion that Malaysians are a rather misinformed lot.

Let me put down here 10 clear symptoms that our education system is sick and needs a major overhaul to move forward.

It’s my hope that those responsible for coming with up with yet another major blueprint will take heed for I am sure many fellow Malaysians share the same sentiments. Here goes:

> By the end of Standard Six we still have whole classes unable to write their names. If the authorities don’t believe this, let them make a survey of the schools through the administration of a simple test — and use independent auditors and make the results public.

> The quality of teachers and schools has fallen steadily. This is reflected in the poor quality of those who leave school, many of whom can’t read and write in Bahasa Malaysia, let alone English.

> The quality of English has plummeted. Employers in the private sector where English is commonly used as the de facto language of choice, lament the poor English skills of even graduates educated in universities where English is the medium of instruction. Government flip-flops over English has only exacerbated the problem.

> It has become much easier to score A’s. The seemingly easy manner in which thousands score straight A’s in end-of-school exams has raised serious doubts over the integrity of the education system and whether our standards are set too low.

> We don’t have a proper system of vocational and technical training. We have a system which is academic based and does not provide enough vocational and technical training for those who may want and need it.

> We have a racially polarised school system partly largely because of falling standards. There was a time when most students of all races went to national schools simply because they were considered the best.

But Chinese schools are now seen to be much better with most Chinese enrolling their children there.

We have at least four, perhaps five, educational systems — national, national type Chinese and Tamil and religious schools. The fifth are private schools, both with international and Malaysian curricula.

> We produce thousands of unemployable graduates, especially from public universities. We moved a long time ago to quantity instead of quality.

> Qualifications from public universities are not as well recognised as before. Most people opt for non-public universities if they can afford it, a sad change from before when getting a place in Universiti Malaya was considered prestigious.

> We don’t have a top 100 university, and university standards have declined. While most Malaysian university qualifications were recognised worldwide at one time, that’s no longer the case.

> We continue to politicise education at the expense of students. Why do our politicians insist that our education is tops and then promptly send their children to private schools and overseas to educate them — in English?

For changes to take place, we must recognise where we are right now, we must get our bearings first.

Let’s open our eyes, absorb the unvarnished truth, seriously soul-search, and provide a real, deep, thinking education to young Malaysians without politics, propaganda and proselytising so that education is wholesome, complete and secular.

Comment by P. GUNASEGARAM

 > Independent consultant and writer P. Gunasegaram likes this quote from Horace Mann: A human being is not attaining his full heights until he is educated.

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