China hits back at US tariffs

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Duties show Beijing unfazed by Washington’s pressure

China on Monday struck back at US tariffs on Chinese goods, announcing duties of between 5 percent to 25 percent on more than 5,100 products from the US worth tens of billions of dollars.

The measured but firm response from Chinese officials highlighted China's defiance toward maximum pressure from US officials amid a fresh escalation in the trade war, while also seeking to avoid a full-fledged trade war with the US, analysts said.

China will impose an additional tariff of 25 percent on 2,493 items such as liquefied natural gas and 20 percent on 1,078 items, including fruits and chemicals, starting June 1, the Customs Tariff Commission under the State Council, China's cabinet, said in a statement Monday night.

China will also impose an additional tariff of 10 percent on 974 items, such as vegetables and seafood, and 5 percent on 595 items, including smaller planes, according to the statement. In total, the tariffs cover 5,140 US products worth $60 billion.

The statement said that China's measures were in response to the US' decision to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.

"The aforementioned US action has led to an escalation in China-US trade frictions and is against a consensus reached by the two sides to address trade differences through consultations," it said, adding it hurts both sides' interests.

Following China's tariffs, US stocks tumbled on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 2.17 percent shortly after market opening. Shares of major US companies which rely on Chinese markets also nosedived, with machinery maker Caterpillar stocks down 4.54 percent and aircraftmaker Boeing shares down 3.38 percent.

Firm response

"I think the response is firm but measured," said Huo Jianguo, vice chairman of the China Society for World Trade Organization Studies in Beijing, pointing out that the measures were specifically aimed at responding to the US action.

The US on Friday raised duties on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25 percent from the 10 percent imposed since September 2018, to which China responded with tariffs on $60 billion in US goods.

"While the Chinese tariffs cover less US products than the US tariffs do on Chinese goods, it is sufficient to show that China is not going to back down from pressure," Huo said.

China's response comes about an hour after US President Donald Trump warned China against retaliating on Monday. "China should not retaliate - will only get worse!" Trump tweeted, while repeating false accusations against China.

The Chinese tariffs also followed fresh threats from US officials to impose tariffs on $325 billion in Chinese goods with details expected to be announced on Monday US time.

"Since the US has resumed the trade war, we should hit back hard… to show the Americans that they will not gain anything from their tough approach," He Weiwen, a former senior Chinese trade official, told the Global Times. "But we should also not close the door to talks."

Door open

Though China was forced to impose the tariffs, it also did so in a way that avoided a further escalation and left room for negotiations, said Song Guoyou, director of Fudan University's Center for Economic Diplomacy.

"The country still left some room in the hope that bilateral trade tensions would not further escalate, and that there would be possible future talks with the US," Song said.

Chinese and US officials concluded the 11th round of negotiations in Washington on Friday without reaching any deal. There were no plans for future talks as of press time on Monday.

But in light of the drastic turn of events in the trade talks, China has prepared for all scenarios, officials and analysts said.

"The Chinese side will never succumb to external pressure and we have the resolve and ability to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests," Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told a routine press briefing on Monday.

"Again, we hope the US side could work with China and meet China halfway to address each other's reasonable concerns based on mutual respect and equal terms," he said.

But if the US wants to further escalate the trade war, China will respond in kind and there are many other tools it could take to inflict pain on the US economy, including targeting US financial markets, analyst noted.

Stay focused

However, while fighting back is necessary, it is also equally important for China not to lose focus in carrying out stated reform and opening-up efforts aimed at ensuring long-term growth for the Chinese economy, analysts said.

"We need to commit to our policies because we must keep things at home in good shape. That goes without saying," Huo said, noting that China should continue its reform and opening-up efforts.

Continuing reform and opening-up measures will not only help cope with pressure from the US, but could also ensure long-term growth for the Chinese economy, analysts said.

In the short term, though, China needs to properly evaluate the potential damage of the trade war on Chinese companies and workers and take necessary measures to help them weather the impact.

Yu Yongding, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that given China's deep role in the global value chain, it is hard to evaluate the impact on the Chinese economy, but China needs to prepare for the worst.

"In any case, the Chinese economy will be able to withstand the impact, and China's monetary and fiscal policies still have room," he said at a seminar in Beijing on Saturday.

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Global markets fall as China hits back at US with new import tariffs ...

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World markets plunged further on Tuesday following heavy losses on Wall Street after China delivered a swift rebuff to Donald Trump by imposing retaliatory tariffs on $60bn of US imports. Beijing ignored warnings from Trump about the dangers of escalating the trade conflict and ..

Tall tales won't help US win trade war

The Chinese side is obviously more realistic while the US is falsifying. This will, to a large extent, influence how the two countries digest the trade war impacts.
Source: Global Times

US' maximum pressure policy is useless

China's stance is clear-cut. It is willing to reach a deal but will never make concessions on issues of principle, nor trade its core interests. In contrast, the US' attitude is swaying. Driven by unrealistic anticipation, it has drifted between expressing optimism that exceeds the actual situation and arbitrarily waving the tariff stick. China has clarified its stance and will try to push the situation in a good direction. If the US is to play a roller coaster-style thriller game, it will bear the consequences.
Source: Global Times

US companies set to pay price of trade row with China

US-based software company Oracle attracted a lot of attention in recent days after firing hundreds of employees, mainly engineers, from its China team.
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We are never too old to work, old is gold

Old Is Gold

NASIR Ahmad’s father, Ahmad Ismail or better known by his pseudonym Ahmady Asmara, was a legendary journalist and a sasterawan (man of letters). He used to work for publications like Saudara, Warta Ahad, Majlis and Utusan Zaman back in the 50s and 60s. Among his protege was the late Tan Sri Zainuddin Maidin (Zam).

Like his father, Nasir joined the press. In 1973, he started as a repor­­ter with the Utusan Melayu group. Eighteen years later, he joined Berita Harian.

Upon reaching 55, Nasir worked on a contract basis from 2011 to 2017. He has no major financial commitments and all except one of his four children are married.

In December 2017, he was diagnosed with colon cancer. It was devastating news to him and his family. He survived but his life was never the same again.

His close shave with death taught him many valuable lessons. For one, he can’t remain idle. He gets restless not doing anything.

He joined Grab service last August. It was more like an experiment for him initially. He was hooked. He has been driving ever since. In fact, he is one of Grab’s prized drivers, attaining 5-star ratings many times over. He starts around 10 in the morning and finishes around 9 at night, stopping only for prayers and lunch or quick bites.

Nasir is not alone. On May 2, this newspaper highlighted a growing number of Malaysians working well after 60.

For those who have their pension, they can afford to sit back and enjoy what’s left of their life. But things are not easy for others. They have mouths to feed. In most cases, adult children have their own commitments and parents seldom want to bother them over financial matters.

However, it is not easy to join the job market at that age even with experience and the necessary expertise. Nasir was a journalist; driving for Grab was a totally new experience.

As highlighted by this newspaper, based on a report published by the Institute of Labour Market Information and Analysis (Ilma), the supply of workers of Nasir’s age and above currently outstrips the demand for them.

According to the report, by 2030, the number of aged workers in Malaysia would be about 1.2 million but the demand for such workers would be just slightly a third of that.

If you are at Changi Airport, Singapore, most likely the first people you meet after the immigration officers are the ushers to guide you to the taxis. At most food courts, the elderly are employed to clear the trays or clean the floors.

There are certain jobs young people are not interested in. We see less of them here because the foreigners are doing the job for us.

Singapore, understandably, is giving a lot of attention to senior citizens. The republic is seriously looking into what it “needs to do differently in the coming years” as its population ages. In fact, it is considered one of the most urgent challenges for the government today.

The world population is ageing. According to the latest United Nations’ data, the number of those above 60 years globally is expected to more than double by 2050 and triple by 2100.

In 2017, there were 962 million of them, there will be 2.1 billion in 2050 and 3.1 billion in 2100. Shockingly too, according to the data, people aged 60 or above is growing faster than all younger age groups!

This is not just a problem in advanced countries. Most countries in the world have substantial numbers of ageing population. With better healthcare, humans are living longer.

There are loads of other issues pertaining to people of 60 and above. Moreover, living in the 21st century has its challenges.

There are issues about acceptability and competition with the younger generation, and certainly the need for respectability and dignity. But more importantly is coping with the demands at workplaces.

It is the question of how governments are coping with an ageing population.

One way is to make people work longer. We have done that, raising the retirement age to 60. Should we raise that to 65?

It is not a popular policy especially when younger people believe they will be deprived of the chance to climb up the ladder in public service or in the private sector.

The Global Age Watch Index Report shows high-income countries fare better in managing their ageing population. The enabling environment too for ageing people is much better in richer countries.

Like it or not, people of Nasir’s age are transforming society of today and the future. Just like the UN report on ageing says, ageing population is poised to become one of the most dramatic and significant transformations of the 21st century.

Never take Nasir and people his age for granted!

Johan Jaaffar was a journalist, editor and for some years, chairman of a media company, and is passionate about all things literature and the arts. The views expressed here are entirely his own.


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South Korea's latest big export: Jobless college graduates

South Korea's latest big export: Jobless college graduates - Reuters

Left: A jobseeker stands as he gets into the 2018 Japan Job Fair in Seoul, South Korea. Jobseekers attend the 2018 Japan Job Fair in Seoul, South Korea. (Filepics)

SEOUL: Cho Min-kyong boasts an engineering degree from one of South Korea's top universities, a school design award and a near-perfect score in her English proficiency test.

But she had all but given up hope of finding a job when all her 10 applications, including one to Hyundai Motor Co, were rejected in 2016.

Help came unexpectedly from neighboring Japan six months later: Cho got job offers from Nissan Motor Co and two other Japanese companies after a job fair hosted by the South Korean government to match the country's skilled labor with overseas employers.

"It's not that I wasn't good enough. There are just too many job seekers like me, that's why everyone just fails," said the 27-year-old, who now works in Atsugi, an hour southwest of Tokyo, as a car seat engineer for Nissan.

"There are numerous more opportunities outside Korea."

Facing an unprecedented job crunch at home, many young South Koreans are now signing up for government-sponsored programs designed to find overseas positions for a growing number of jobless college graduates in Asia's fourth largest economy.

State-run programs such as K-move, rolled out to connect young Koreans to "quality jobs" in 70 countries, found overseas jobs for 5,783 graduates last year, more than triple the number in 2013, its first year.

(Graphic: Korea's young talents going abroad png - https://tmsnrt.rs/2LwlSUU)

Almost one-third went to Japan, which is undergoing a historic labor shortage with unemployment at a 26-year low, while a quarter went to the United States, where the jobless rate dropped to the lowest in nearly half a century in April.

There are no strings attached. Unlike similar programs in places such as Singapore that come with an obligation to return and work for the government for up to six years, attendees of South Korea's programs are neither required to return, nor work for the state in the future.

"Brain drain isn't the government's immediate worry. Rather, it's more urgent to prevent them from sliding into poverty" even if it means pushing them abroad, said Kim Chul-ju, deputy dean at the Asian Development Bank Institute.

In 2018, South Korea generated the smallest number of jobs since the global financial crisis, only 97,000.

Nearly one in five young Koreans was out of work as of 2013, higher than the average 16 percent among the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

In March, one in every four Koreans in the 15-29 age group was not employed either by choice or due to the lack of jobs, according to government data.

(Graphic: S.Koreans landing overseas jobs by country 2018 png - https://tmsnrt.rs/2DZCTR9)

LABOR MISMATCH

While India and other countries face similar challenges in creating jobs for skilled labor, the dominance of family-run conglomerates known as chaebol makes South Korea uniquely vulnerable.

The top 10 conglomerates including world-class brands such as Samsung and Hyundai, make up half of South Korea's total market capitalization.

But only 13 percent of the country's workforce is employed by firms with more than 250 employees, the second lowest after Greece in the OECD, and far below the 47 percent in Japan. "The big companies have mastered a business model to survive without boosting hiring," as labor costs rise and firing legacy workers remains difficult, said Kim So-young, an economics professor at Seoul National University.

Yet while increasing numbers of college graduates are moving overseas for work, South Korea is bringing in more foreigners to solve another labor problem – an acute shortage of blue collar workers.

South Korea has the most highly educated youth in the OECD, with three-quarters of high school students going to college, compared with the average of 44.5 percent.

"South Korea is paying the price for its overprotection of top-tier jobs and education fervor that produced a flood of people wanting only that small number of top jobs," said Ban Ga-woon, a labor market researcher at state-run Korea Research Institute for Vocational Education & Training.

Even amid a glut of over-educated and under-employed graduates, most refuse to "get their hands dirty", says Lim Chae-wook, who manages a factory making cable trays that employs 90 people in Ansan, southwest of Seoul. "Locals simply don’t want this job cause they think its degrading, so we're forced to hire a lot of foreign workers," Lim said, pointing to nearly two dozens workers from the Philippines, Vietnam and China working in safety masks behind welding machines.

In the southwestern city of Gwangju, Kim Yong-gu, the chief executive of Kia Motor supplier Hyundai Hitech, says foreign workers are more expensive but he has no choice as he can't find enough locals to fill vacancies.

"We pay for accommodation, meals and other utility costs in order not to lose them to another factory," said Kim. Out of a staff of 70, 13 are Indonesian nationals, who sleep and eat at a building next to his factory.

NO HAPPY ENDING FOR EVERYONE

For those who escaped Korea's tough job market, not all has been rosy.


Several people who found overseas jobs with government help say they ended up taking menial work, such as dishwashing in Taiwan and meat processing in rural Australia, or were misinformed about pay and conditions.

Lee Sun-hyung, a 30-year old athletics major, used K-move to go to Sydney to work as a swim coach in 2017 but earned less than $A600 ($419) a month, one-third what her government handlers told her in Seoul.

"It wasn't what I had hoped for. I could not even afford to pay rent," said Lee, who ended up cleaning windows at a fashion store part-time before she returned home broke less than a year later.

Officials say they are making a "black list" of employers and improving the vetting process to prevent recurrence of such cases. The labor ministry also established a "support and reporting center" to better respond to problems.

Many on the programs lose touch once they go overseas. Almost 90 percent of the graduates who went abroad with the government's help between 2013-2016 didn't respond to the labor ministry's requests about their whereabouts or changed their contact details, a 2017 survey showed.

Still, the grim job market at home is driving more Koreans to the program every year. The government has also increased relevant budget to support rising demand - from 57.4 billion won ($48.9 million) in 2015 to 76.8 billion won in 2018, data released by lawmaker Kim Jung-hoon shows.

"The government isn't scaling up this project to the extent we would worry about brain drain," said Huh Chang, head of the development finance bureau at South Korea's finance ministry, which co-manages state-run vocational training programs with the labor ministry. Rather, the focus was on meeting growing demand for overseas experience given so many graduates are outside the workforce, Huh added.

A hopeful scenario would be for the economy to one day make use of the resources these graduates bring home as experienced returnees, Huh said.

For 28-year-old K-move alumni Lee Jae-young, that feels like a distant prospect.

"The one year abroad added a line in my resume, but that was about it," said Lee, who returned to Korea in February after working as a cook at the JW Marriott hotel in Texas. "I'm back home and still looking for a job." - Reuters

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‘Money/cash is King’ comes back to bite Pakatan

Politicians using cash to buy power and votes has created a culture in Malaysia in which people have started valuing money more than truth, hard work and honesty. 

THE enduring potency of the ringgit caused by former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s “Cash is King” regime came in for much ridicule in the last election campaign, much to the chagrin of the perpetrator of this philosophy.

In all his speeches and media interviews in the last two years before 2018’s 14th General Election, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad never failed to hammer home the point that Najib told him this when he asked why he was giving out cash hand-outs in so many forms to the people, and very freely too.

His intended message to the voters was that Najib used this tactic to “buy” votes, as Malaysians will eventually be beholden and grateful to the man who dishes out cash. Whether those receiving it deserved it or not did not matter, everyone wanted the money and many did not care where it came from.

For a long time, money and power worked like a firewall around Najib and his Cabinet, which made him believe cash was indeed king as they blithely went about plundering the nation.

It has been established or is being established at Najib’s on-going corruption trial involving the alleged siphoning of funds from SRC International Sdn Bhd, that money was freely dished out for political support, popularity and reverence, among others.

Mahathir’s campaign was direct and simple, that it was borrowed money and stolen funds from the people that was being given out, and this campaign strategy worked. It thus showed that anti-corruption is an easy sell and proved that most Malaysian voters did care about abstract ethical issues like corruption.

Unbelievably, even many of the beneficiaries of Najib’s largesse had obviously voted against Barisan Nasional while some others became turncoats shamelessly, leaving the flagging party.

But one year after dismantling the Cash is King mantra, it somehow appears to be coming back to bite Dr Mahathir and the Pakatan Harapan leadership. The new mantra among many Malaysians now is that they don’t seem to have enough money all the time.

True, the cost of living never came down substantially after the abolition of the GST (goods and services tax), but we cannot deny that it did lower shopping bills in places like hypermarkets as there was no SST (sales and services tax) levied at such outlets.

RON 95 petrol, which is currently used by most motorists, is capped at RM2.08 a litre which is about 40 sen lower than the actual price it would have been if the old managed float system based on global crude oil prices was in place

Not very tangible for the average Malaysian, right? Do they even care to understand the intangibles that they are benefiting from as a result of several new policies and taxes? No! Looks like Malaysians are not prepared to ask what they can do for the country, it is always what the country must do for them.

Nearly every person I meet seems to have just one thing to say: nothing has come down. All prices have remained the same while some have only gone up. And that Pakatan has not delivered or is slow in keeping its promises.

And strangely, I have been noticing a pattern where those providing certain home services like courier and telecommunication technicians actually volunteer to say that times were better under the Barisan government as they had more money to spend.

“It is very difficult now, we have less money to spend compared to last time when BN was in power. Pakatan Harapan is not keeping its promises,” a Pos Laju staff told a friend of mine without being asked.

I’m one who views surveys by certain groups and parties, especially the random ones, warily as the respondents do not necessarily reflect the actual feelings on the ground. So I make it a point to talk to strangers about this subject whether in public stations or while in a queue waiting to pay something.

What I notice is that while people may be a tad bit sympathetic when I tell them they have to give Pakatan more time because of certain extenuating circumstances, generally, they are unhappy.

The bottom line of their unhappiness now is all about cash. They are receiving less money from the government, never mind what they were enjoying in the past was stolen or borrowed money.

This group of people don’t seem to be outraged, which we all should naturally be, at past leaders who had virtually abused their power to rob the nation’s coffers, a fact which has emerged or is being exposed in many key institutions.

They claim that the BR1M (Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia) payments are now lower and many recipients have also been removed from the list as they do not qualify under the minimum household income requirement. So what is wrong with that? Why do you want money that does not belong to you or you don’t deserve?

Yes, it’s true that the Bantuan Sara Hidup (BSH, as BR1M is now called) has been reduced by RM200 to RM1,000 but Pakatan has made sure that only really needy Malaysians get such welfare aid, as it had been greatly abused in the past.

And to make sure those really in need receive more help, the government is giving out an additional RM100 for each child below 18 years of age whose guardians are BSH recipients, for a maximum of four children. And if the child is disabled, it is for a lifetime, no age limit. So if a BSH recipient has four children below 18, he or she gets a total of RM1,420. This is higher than before.

Malaysia has thrived because of a culture of opportunity that encourages hard work in the private sector. Of course, the social restructuring policy, which was aimed at giving a hand to the have-nots to give them a lift, played a role.

But this should not go on forever, the number must reduce eventually as those benefiting should finally be able to help their families to grow away from this dependency.

The growth of this form of welfare state funded by projected or borrowed income -- or worse still, by funds siphoned from government coffers -- is turning Malaysia into a land where many expect, and see no stigma attached, to receive regular financial support.

I find this a growing and dangerous trend, when undeserving Malaysians sit back idly and wait for these cash hand-outs as an entitlement instead of a privilege. And what’s more distressing is to see politicians feeding this cancer as a way of continuing to stay in power.

The actual meaning of the phrase “Cash is King”, as most of us know, is a term reflecting the belief that cash money is more valuable than any other form of investment tool for businesses. For individuals, it is meant to be a fund which is easily accessible for urgent expenditures or purchases.

It is not a phrase that politicians or others use to indicate that they can buy power and votes so that they are able to be in absolute control of the nation for as long as they want. Unfortunately, though, many have done this and it has created a culture in Malaysia in which the people have started valuing money more than truth, hard work and honesty.

Cash is not king when it is stolen from others or, worse still, from public funds placed under your trust or control. That is called cashing in. It is surely not king if it is obtained by unfair trade practices or it is beyond a fair deal.

In this context, something that Dr Mahathir said about two years before the last election shortly after he decided to re-enter politics stands out in my mind. He had said: “You see the collapse of moral values in Malaysia is terrible. In the future we are going to be like those countries where bribery is a part of daily life -- you can’t do anything without bribery.”

This is what he is trying to dismantle after he came back into politics at the age of 93, so we should give our wholehearted support to him and Pakatan for a better and cleaner Malaysia for all.

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US hits China with higher tariffs, raising stakes in trade talks

Punitive duties on US$200bil in goods raises stakes in trade talks. 

https://youtu.be/82NLXvMtn64

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He arrives at the the Office of the United States Trade Representative for negotiations on a trade deal

The United States pulled the trigger Friday on a steep increase in tariffs on Chinese products and Beijing immediately vowed to hit back, turning up the heat before a second day of trade negotiations.

President Donald Trump got a briefing from his trade negotiators after the first day of talks with the Chinese side on Thursday, but made no move to hold off on the tariffs -- dashing hopes there might be a last-minute reprieve as the negotiations continued.

Minutes after the US increased punitive duties on $200 billion in imports from 10 to 25 percent, the Chinese commerce ministry said it "deeply regrets" the move and repeated its pledge to take "necessary countermeasures", without elaborating.

Locked in a trade dispute for more than a year, officials from the world's two biggest economies returned to the bargaining table late Thursday, led by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

Since last year, the two sides have exchanged tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade, gutting US agricultural exports to China and weighing on both countries' manufacturing sectors.

Trump began the standoff because of complaints about unfair Chinese trade practices.

The US team met with Trump late Thursday night to brief him and "agreed to continue discussions" on Friday, the White House said in a statement.



AFP / Jonathan WALTER US-China trade

Lighthizer and Mnuchin met the Chinese delegation for about 90 minutes Thursday evening and they had a working dinner with Liu.

"We hope the US and the Chinese side can meet each other halfway and work hard together to resolve existing problems through cooperation and consultation," the Chinese commerce ministry said in a statement.

Despite optimism from officials in recent weeks that the talks were moving towards a deal, tensions reignited this week after Trump angrily accused China of trying to backpedal on its commitments.

"They took many, many parts of that deal and they renegotiated. You can't do that," Trump said on Thursday.

But he held out hopes of salvaging a deal.

"It's possible to do it," Trump said. "I did get last night a very beautiful letter from President Xi (Jinping)."

At the same time, he said he would be happy to keep tariffs in place. And he has threatened to extend the tough duties to all Chinese goods.

Michael Taylor, a managing director for Moody's Investors Service, said the tariff hike "further raises tensions" between the two countries.

"While we believe that a trade deal will eventually be reached between the US and China, the risk of a complete breakdown in trade talks has certainly increased," Taylor said.

- Tariffs increase -

The renewed tensions roiled global stock markets this week and unnerved exporters, though Chinese shares led gains across most Asian and European markets on Friday.

AFP / ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (L) and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin wait to greet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He for trade talks

Liu said on his arrival in Washington that the prospects for the talks were "promising," but warned that raising tariffs would be "harmful to both sides," and called instead for cooperation.

"I hope to engage in rational and candid exchanges with the US side," he told Chinese state media.

"Of course, China believes raising tariffs in the current situation is not a solution to the problem, but harmful to China, to the United States and to the whole world."

The higher duty rates will hit a vast array of Chinese-made electrical equipment, machinery, auto parts and furniture.

But due to a quirk in the implementation of the higher tariffs, products already on ships headed for US ports before midnight will only pay the 10 percent rate, US Customs and Border Protection explained.

That could effectively provide a grace period for the sides to avert serious escalation.

AFP / Andrew Caballero-Reynolds An anti-China protester (C) yells at a pro-China demonstrator outside the Office of the United States Trade Representative as US and Chinese officials hold tariff negotiations in Washington

"While we are disappointed that the stakes have been raised, we nevertheless support the ongoing effort by both sides to reach agreement on a strong, enforceable deal that resolves the fundamental, structural issues our members have long faced in China," said business lobby the American Chamber of Commerce in China.

The US is pressing China to change its policies on protections for intellectual property, massive subsidies for state-owned firms, and reduce the yawning trade deficit.

Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute, said the two sides had clashed over how much of the final trade agreement should be enshrined in a public document, something Beijing has long resisted.

"What the Chinese step-back primarily says is they don't want to publicly acknowledge that their existing laws, especially on IP, are flawed," he told AFP.

Washington is counting on the strong US economy to be able to withstand the impact of higher costs from the import duties and retaliation better than China, which has seen its growth slow.

A Chinese central bank advisor told state-run Financial News that Trump's tariff hike and Chinese retaliation would lower economic growth by 0.3 percentage points.

It is "within a controllable range", the advisor Ma Jun saidA.

By AFP / ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS

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Chinese Vice Premier Liu He (left) shakes hands with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (center) alongside US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin as Liu arrives at the Office of the US Trade Representative for trade negotiations in Washington DC, Friday. Photo: AP

After months of truce, the trade war between China and the US escalated on Friday, after the US shrugged off widespread warnings and moved to hike tariffs on Chinese goods, drawing a firm response from China, which vowed to retaliate.

Though Chinese and US officials are continuing talks, the renewed tensions between the world's two largest economies significantly complicated ongoing negotiations, dimmed the prospects of any potential trade agreement and stoked fear that a full-fledged trade war could still break out. And the US is to blame for the risky turn of events, Chinese officials and analysts stressed.

After days of repeated threats, US officials on Friday noon (Beijing Time) increased an existing 10 percent tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25 percent, breaking a truce reached by the leaders of the two countries in December 2018 and highlighting the unreliable and unpredictable nature of the US administration.

Minutes after the US tariff hike took effect, China struck back. In a statement, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said that China "will have to take necessary countermeasures," while still urging the US to meet China halfway in ongoing negotiations in Washington.

Even as tensions escalated, officials pushed through with the 11th round of negotiations as they try to make a last-ditch effort to bring the months-long talks back on track for a trade agreement.

The Chinese delegation was seen arriving at the Office of the US Trade Representative at around 5 pm on Thursday US time and left about an hour and half later. The talks will continue on Friday morning, according to US media reports.

 "We are now at a very delicate place, where further negotiations have become significantly more difficult… the risk of a further escalation also increased," Song Guoyou, director of Fudan University's Center for Economic Diplomacy, told the Global Times on Friday. "We cannot allow this to become normal. That would be dangerous."

Forced retaliation

Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that China does not want to fight a trade war, but Washington's aggressiveness and belligerence left them no other option but to fight back, analysts said.

"China will also have to make good on its own words, otherwise, it will be at a huge disadvantage to the US team at the negotiations," said He Weiwen, a former senior Chinese trade official, told the Global Times on Friday, referring to China's earlier vow to retaliate if the US went ahead with the tariff threat.

Though the MOFCOM on Friday did not say what countermeasures China will take and when it will implement them, there are many ways China can inflict pain on the US economy, according to analysts.

"The most direct countermeasure would be raising existing tariffs on US goods or imposing tariffs on more US products," Song said. "However, we cannot rule out other policy tools."

Song pointed out that with the overall trade relationship souring, US companies' operations and investments in China could also be impacted, given the rising anger among the Chinese public toward the US.

In the wake of renewed tensions, calls on Chinese social media to boycott US products rose, including US films, iPhones and computers. "Why retaliate? All we need to do is boycotting US products," one internet user said on Sina Weibo.

Chinese analysts also suggested that China could target the US financial system, the backbone of the US economy, including unloading China's holdings of US Treasury bonds.  Big US corporations and products, such as agricultural goods, will also likely encounter more scrutiny and resistance in China.

"Such an impact on US companies and industries will not be less severe than from the tariffs," Song said.

Many US business groups have expressed strong opposition to the  tariffs. On Wall Street, US stocks have also suffered losses in the past few days, as have stocks in major bourses across the world.

Complicated outlook

While it remains to be seen whether trade officials could still make a breakthrough at the talks, it is clear that the escalation complicates the talks and dims prospects for a deal, analysts said.

"I don't expect too much from this round of talks," a source in Washington  familiar with the talks told the Global Times on Friday, noting that US President Donald Trump had miscalculated.

"He initially wanted to show how he forced China into making concessions," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. "But that is like forcing China not to sign the deal quickly."

However, citing US eagerness, other observers have also argued that there is still a chance for the two sides to reach a deal.

"I think there is still a chance for the two countries to reach an agreement," Sang Baichuan, director of the Institute of International Business at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, told the Global Times on Friday, noting that the two sides still appear eager to reach a deal, despite their tough rhetoric.

In what appears to be an attempt to leave room for talks, US officials offered a grace period for the tariff hike. Trump also said on Thursday that a deal is still "possible" this week and that he might speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping by phone, CNBC reported.

Asked about the phone call, Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on Friday that he was not aware of such a plan but the two leaders have maintained close contact.


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