Malaysia's 1Q18 to 4Q21 GDP performance, International scenario likely to affect trajectory

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International scenario likely to affect trajectory

“Hopefully we will start to see private investments gaining traction, but this depends very much also on what is going on in the international front, especially in terms of the Russia-ukraine war and global inflation.” Carmelo Ferlito

Despite being on a recovery path, the country’s economic growth trajectory could be affected by uncertainties on the global front. 

PMalaysia’s gradual and controlled easing of Covid-19 restrictions as it transitions into edemicity is set to give the country’s economy a much needed boost.

Despite being on the recovery path, economists have however cautioned that Malaysia’ economic growth trajectory could still be affected by uncertainties on the global front.

Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams said the ongoing Russia-ukraine war, China’s lockdowns and likely austerity in the United States and Europe are key factors that could have an impact on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

“The expected negative outlook of the international economic scenario will determine the outcome of Malaysia’s second quarter GDP, not Covid-19 and borders reopening, which we expect to play a marginal role in this phase,” he told Starbiz.

In a base case scenario (which refers to a set of basic assumptions where the results would lead to the most realistic outcome), Williams said Malaysia’s second quarter GDP is forecast to increase 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.6% year-on-year.

“This scenario implies that the GDP will be flat over the first half of 2022. This is in contrast to the consensus view of a rampant recovery with a yearly growth figure close to 5.5% and 6%. In our base scenario, we think that a 3.5% year growth is more likely.” 

 Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams said the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, China’s lockdowns and likely austerity in the United States and Europe are key factors that could have an impact on Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

In a risk scenario, Williams said he foresees Malaysia’s GDP “going into slightly negative territory”.

“In our base scenario, we expect to see a systematic and progressive recovery, consistent with the potential rate of growth of the economy only in the second half of 2022.

“The contribution of the external demand is expected to be close to zero, reflecting the international cyclical weakness we are already observing in the US, European Union and China,” he said.

Malaysia, which has been gradually easing its Covid-19-related standard operating procedures since late last year, finally reopened its borders to international travellers from April 1.

Last week, Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin announced a slew of relaxations to Malaysia’s Covid-19 restrictions.

Centre for Market Education chief executive officer Carmelo Ferlito said the relaxation measures announced recently would be a good incentive for the tourism industry.

However, he said the impact of the relaxations would likely be better reflected in the third quarter of this year, rather than in the current (second) quarter.

“We can still expect a good momentum for export, pulled by a weaker currency (which is temporarily good for export but harmful for the economy in general).

“Hopefully we will start to see private investments gaining traction, but this depends very much also on what is going on in the international front, especially in terms of the Russiaukraine war and global inflation.”

Malaysia’s GDP expanded 3.1% in 2021, after posting a 3.6% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

In a base case scenario, HELP University economist Dr Paolo Casadio said Malaysia’s first quarter 2022 GDP is projected to shrink 1.5% quarter-on-quarter and contract 0.7% year-on-year. 

 

Centre for Market Education chief executive officer Carmelo Ferlito said the relaxation measures announced recently would be a good incentive for the tourism industry.

“This would be due to contraction in investments, negative net external demand and stagnation in private consumption.

“We do not see a clear pattern in private consumption and investments, which would be consistent with a positive transition of the economy toward a systematic and sustained recovery.”

Casadio added that the current phase of recovery is “a delicate transition”.

“There are plenty of weaknesses and risks of a new recessionary phase, although the risk of a recession is only around 25%. Disposable income and wealth among households are not recovering due to weak real wages growth, slow increase in employment and continuing withdrawals from the Employees’ Provident Fund to finance current expenditure, even among the middle-income population.”

Ferlito, meanwhile, said he was “not a big fan of GDP forecasts” when asked about his projections for Malaysia’s economic performance for the first quarter of 2022.

“It’s because they fail to ignore how an eventual growth or decline is built. For example, GDP grew in 2021 by 3.1%, but that growth was mainly driven by government spending and private consumption.

“This means that growth is resting on very unstable pillars, being basically financed by household and government debt and inflation.”

Ferlito emphasised that private investments remained “quite stagnant” in 2021.

“The key drivers of a sustainable growth path are savings, which are not measured by GDP and private investments. “I think that beyond the GDP figure, which in itself is pretty useless, we should look at the microfoundations behind it. We will be on the right path if private investments grow, while a closer look should also be devoted to the savings dynamics, which is not captured by the GDP.”Ferlito noted that Bank Negara foresees a good rebound in private investments for 2022.

“This is what we need to hope for, although I believe that a lot of elements of uncertainty are still weighing on that, in particular for the first quarter of 2022.”

Ferlito said the political situation in Malaysia could also have an impact on the country’s GDP performance.

“Hopefully we will have elections with the emergence of a strong majority supported by a reformist agenda. Then there is the big issue of China, which in 2021 accounted for 15.5% of Malaysian exports. China is Malaysia’s first trade partner and therefore their utopic approach to Covid-19 will surely have an impact on our economy.”

Ferlito added that geopolitical uncertainties in Europe could also have an impact on Malaysia’s economic performance.

“Europe accounts for around 7% of the international trade of Malaysia, both in terms of import and export. Troubles there will lead to repercussions here.”

Williams said the focus at the moment should be on price stability and maintaining expansionary credit conditions.

“The government has managed the containment of inflation well up to now, through the control of petrol and other prices. But it was an error to allow the hike of the electric tariffs for the non-residential users in March. This is adding perhaps 0.5% to the outlook of inflation in a very critical phase.”

Williams said this hike should be reversed to guarantee a low level of inflation, which is necessary to support the purchasing power of salaries.

“This would be possible by redistributing the gains and costs of the increase in oil and gas that the different government-linked companies are experiencing and avoids penalising firms and households.”

Casadio meanwhile said he expects Bank Negara to maintain the current expansionary conditions and not revise the official interest rate of the monetary policy until the second half of 2022. 

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Kindness from staff is always appreciated

 

 

BEING able to walk again must be the deepest wish of every wheelchair user. The sense of helplessness that comes with being unable to walk is especially felt when they need to go out to attend to business because not every place is wheelchair friendly, and not everyone is kind and helpful.

My wife became a wheelchair user several years ago. To make the situation worse, both of us are already in our sunset years. But in spite of this, we don’t have problems going to places where there are ramps or elevators, such as malls or hospitals. Otherwise, going out would be really challenging.

Recently, my wife was required to go personally to a bank in Pantai Jerjak in Sungai Nibong, Penang, to set up an online account.

Being able to do her banking transactions online is now necessary for her because the bank is no longer serving wheelchair-bound customers waiting in their cars.

As the bank is situated among a row of shophouses, accessing it could be difficult for a wheelchair user. I therefore went a day earlier to survey the area. I noticed that the most difficult part would be for the wheelchair user to get onto a nearly 30cm-high step that leads to the lobby because the bank is on a higher level than the five-foot way.

I explained my problems to a bank employee in charge of walkin customers. She told me not to worry as I could enter through the ATM area where there’s a wheelchair ramp. The shutter wall between the ATM area and bank’s lobby could easily be rolled up, she said.

With this assurance, I brought my wife to the said bank a few days later. It was certainly an uphill task for an elderly man to push someone in a wheelchair across a road and raised sidewalk that was uneven and rough. Thankfully, when we reached the five-foot way in front of the bank, a bank employee came out and led us to the ATM area. The shutter was also rolled up almost simultaneously.

Anyway, my wife couldn’t have her online banking account set up because her thumbprints are not readable. She was told that she needed a letter from the Registration Department to facilitate the process.

As we were about to leave, I requested the bank employee at the entrance to kindly roll up the shutter. We were shocked when she said she did not have the key to do so, and directed us to exit by the main entrance. In dismay, I asked loudly why this employee had no empathy at all for the elderly and a wheelchair user.

Another employee kindly came to our aid and had the shutter rolled up immediately. Before leaving, I told the unkind employee to her face, “The key is always there, but you refused to lift a finger to help!”

Everyone will grow old one day and, more likely than not, suffer from serious health problems.

Hopefully, the bank will continue to reach out to customers who are in dire need of assistance.

CK. CHAI Penang 

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Young designer aims to show pride, passion China’s homemade aircraft carrier Shandong brings

http://1253985869.vod2.myqcloud.com/ee20c49fvodtransgzp1253985869/54591bcc387702300148005698/v.f100040.mp4

 

Sailors in the fashion clothing pose in front of the aircraft carrier Shandong for the street style photos. Photo: Courtesy of Glory Made

Editor's note:

China's first white paper published recently on its youth describes its young generation as "confident, aspirant and responsible". According to the document, Chinese youth possess a global vision and stand at the forefront of the times bursting with commitment: pursuing lofty ideals with a firm belief in socialism with Chinese characteristics. Young people are also described in the paper as full of patriotism, displaying the sterling quality of living up to responsibilities and striving to be contributors to the country's development.

Wednesday marks the national Youth Day, which falls on May 4 to honor the patriotic youth movement - the 1919 May Fourth Movement that began 103 years ago. On this special occasion which also marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Youth League of China, the Global Times presents a series of stories about four prominent figures of the young generation, who were nourished in great times with ample opportunities and have been sparing no efforts in promoting Guochao, also known as Chinese trends or "China chic", to the international stage. Looking ahead to the new era, their stories fully showcase that youth is the most active and vital force in society and the hopes of a country and the future of a nation lie in their hands. This is the second part in the series in which we can get to see these young faces, a young designer who is helping popularize China's aircraft carrier culture centering the Shandong vessel.The rest stories are Gen-Z director amazes world with ancient dancing show, pledges to be cultural promoter, and Young Chinese culture promoter presents traditional handicrafts to Oxford Uni and Milan Fashion Week.

It was April 23, the PLA Navy Day in China, and 24-year-old Tang Ziwei was even busier. The designer behind the fashion line of the Shandong, China's first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier, had to catch up for new products to meet the enthusiasm among young people for China's own fast developing naval culture.

"Not only the whole team including me but also thousands of China's navy fans are so excited about the day, when we can cheer for China's navy," the 1998-born Tang told the Global Times. "What's more, I feel even prouder to part of it, being able to contribute to the country's own navy culture with my talent and the understanding of China's culture".

Three years after the Shandong vesselwas launchedin 2017, the Glory Made, the studio that Tang works at, released the first culture products for the ship from baseball cap hats to toy models. "It turned out to be a great success among young public, who show great interest in the Shandong vessel and our navy," recalled Xie dahuan, who runs the studio. "All sold out. People need to make orders first and wait for weeks before receiving them."

Sailors in the fashion clothing pose in front of the aircraft carrier Shandong for the street style photos. Photo: Courtesy of Glory Made

Passion for PLA Navy

The passion and pride for China's own homemade aircraft carrier influence ordinary people who are willing to get close to it, but also the designers like Tang who make it their own dream to getting more people fall in love with China's own naval culture.

In order to achieve that goal, the Glory Made released the fashion clothing line in the summer of 2021, which includes T-shirts, jackets, shorts and even the popular flight jackets full of China's own design languages and culture elements.

"You see the logo that we designed, the Chinese characters as well as the pandas graphic designs ... they are unique and represent our young people's cultural confidence," said Tang, who visited the Shandong ship for inspiration only months after joining the studio.

Having been fully prepared to see such a large ship, 300 meters at length and over 20 floors tall, she was still stunned to stand in front of the 75,000-ton sea giant. "It is too spectacular. Words can't even express my feelings that time: pride, excitement, joy and more," she recalled.

Claiming she wasn't a military fan herself, the young girl fell in love with the ship after the trip. "Stepping on the ship and talking with these young people, soldiers, pilots, most at my age, help me make up the mind to introduce to more people with the pride feeling, passion and positive energy that I learned from them and experienced myself," she said. Even her PC's wallpaper is a picture of the Shandong vessel.

Photo: Designer Tang Ziwei

Chinese aesthetic culture

How to make young people be attracted to these cultural products has been something that Tang and her colleagues started to plan from the very beginning. Every detail has been carefully added with China's elements like propitious clouds embroidery on the baseball cap.

To Tang, create things with Guochao or China chic style is the reason why she started. "Staying true to my original heart means that I need to apply these inspirations that our own culture brings and show the cultural confidence that wearing these products can bring," she said. Tang hopes to spread traditional culture among her peers especially those born after 1995.

As one of them, Tang knows better than anyone else. "We are growing up during the country's fast developing period and witnessing the strength of China. So we are eager to tell the world about our sincere patriotic feelings and cultural pride."

Clothing is the best carrier of that cultural onfidence. In Tang's designs, the name of the Shandong ship in Chinese characters is embroidered on the front of their most popular flight jacket, bring a feeling of "fancy and high class"; "Serve the People," the Chinese writing of the Communist Party of China's motto is also attached on several styles of T-shirts that both young people and sailors on the Shandong ship love to wear.

A series of street-style photo shoots that the sailors and pilots in these clothes posed in front of the ship has been widely covered by both Chinese media outlets and overseas ones like CNN.

According to Tang, the T-shirts imprinted with the image of a robot panda are also popular with young sailors due to the design which they find cool, half of the lovely beast in the suit of a jet pilot and the other half in the X-rayed mechanical structure while its claws being boosted with jets.

Besides, due to the safety requirement on the ship, these sailors have to wear clothes made of pure cotton in some occasions. "Xinjiang cotton, one of the best in the world has been wildly used on the whole clothing line. It feels soft and comfortable," she added.

From the raw material and designs, Tang and her colleagues are choosing the best of the best of the Shandong cultural products. "Young people like me, who refuse the idea of tangping (lying flat), are working in every area to let the world see the strength of Chinese people, the power of Chinese design and feel the warmth of Chinese culture," Tang said. 

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Prodigy makes US$1mil sales

  In the bag: Chua just snagged Clickfunnel’s Two Comma Club Award. ClickFunnels Official Site - Welcome to ClickFunnels.com‎   PETALING ...

 

Prodigy makes US$1mil sales

 

In the bag: Chua just snagged Clickfunnel’s Two Comma Club Award. ClickFunnels Official Site - Welcome to ClickFunnels.com‎

 

PETALING JAYA: Royston Chua has come a long way since buying his first share at Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway company as a 14-year-old

The US-based Malaysian has turned into a business prodigy, bagging international awards and being featured in famed publications.

He recently bagged Clickfunnel’s Two Comma Club Award for hitting US$1mil (RM4.35mil) in sales on the platform with a marketing agency firm he founded..

Clickfunnel is a website that assists entrepreneurs build sales funnels in order to grow their companies through e-commerce.

“This gives me great confidence to go on and conquer greater heights,” declared the 24-year-old Kuala Lumpur-born entrepreneur.

Chua, who has a penchant for fashion, was also behind a luxury lifestyle brand called Good Purpose Life which highlights sustainability and ethics.

“I love streetwear and luxury, as well as sustainable fashion, but there are few brands that encompass all traits. So I decided to create my own brand that combined all that..

“I started the clothing company as a college student in 2016 when I was intrigued by all things fashion. But I wanted to be an entrepreneur with a mission to do good,” the accounting and finance graduate from University of Melbourne said in an interview..

While studying for the degree, he attended an exchange programme at University of Southern California and summer school at Harvard University in the US where his business know-how flourished.

He spent five years in the US before returning to Malaysia this year for a break and to spend more time with his parents and siblings while preparing for his next business venture.

Chua was listed in American portal New York Weekly 30 under 30 last year, and has featured in US and international news and media such as Forbes, Bloomberg, USA Today and Tatler Asia, among others.He has also been awarded the Marketing Conference 2.0 Outstanding Leadership Award, and Fox News and CBS News affiliated Top 20 Entrepreneurs 2021.

Besides his lifestyle brand company, he also helms an advisory for brands and start-ups to expand their businesses and is also involved in investment management.

Chua, who is known as Royston G. King in the United States, said he owes his success to his parents, particularly businessman dad Datuk Seri Garry Chua for his guidance and support.

“I’m very thankful that my parents did not tie me down to a career of their choice. I was fortunate to have had a good start by pursuing accounting and finance,” he said, adding that this led him to work at some renowned firms which included Bain & Co (top three management consulting firms to McKinsey and Boston Consulting Group).

Chua pledged to always hold firm to the principle of striking a balance between profit, the environmental and the social impact of business./p> “I would not advise anyone to start a business without first learning about corporate social responsibility

“There are many fashion brands making money but they are a net negative to the world,” added the enterprising entrepreneur, who also runs a charity called the Good Purpose foundation.

As part of his philanthropic effort, he has joined several charitable organisations as either a trustee, board member or committee member and provides strategic advice on digital marketing.

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NASA Engineer Florence Tan presented a Maniac Lecture entitled, "From Malaysia to Mars." Florence talked about her journey from Malaysia to NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, where she has been working on planetary mass spectrometers, which is characterized by challenges, frustration, excitement, and rewards

Humans are nutritionally wise; Say goodbye to daily aspirin

  Our food choices may be smarter than previously thought.

 

 

Researchers say our food choices may be influenced by nutritional requirements rather than calories.

PIONEERING research has shed new light on what drives people’s basic food preferences.

The international study, led by the University of Bristol, United Kingdom, set out to re-examine and test the widely-held view that humans evolved to favour energy dense foods and our diets are balanced simply by eating a variety of different foods.

Contrary to this belief, its findings revealed people seem to have “nutritional wisdom,” whereby foods are selected in part to meet our need for vitamins and minerals, and avoid nutritional deficiencies.

Lead author Jeff Brunstrom, professor of experimental psychology, said: “The results of our studies are hugely significant and rather surprising. For the first time in almost a century, we’ve shown humans are more sophisticated in their food choices, and appear to select based on specific micronutrients rather than simply eating everything and getting what they need by default.”

The paper, published in the journal Appetite, gives renewed weight to bold research carried out in the 1930s by an American paediatrician, Dr Clara Davis, who put a group of 15 babies on a diet which allowed them to “self-select”, in other words eat whatever they wanted, from 33 different food items.

While no child ate the same combination of foods, they all achieved and maintained a good state of health, which was taken as evidence of “nutritional wisdom”.

Its findings were later scrutinised and criticised, but replicating Dr Davis’ research was not possible because this form of experimentation on babies would today be considered unethical.

Hence, it has been nearly a century since any scientist has attempted to find evidence for nutritional wisdom in humans – a faculty which has also been found in other animals, such as sheep and rodents.

To overcome these barriers, Prof Brunstrom’s team developed a novel technique which involved measuring preference by showing people images of different fruit and vegetable pairings so their choices could be analysed without putting their health or well-being at risk.

In total 128 adults participated in two experiments.

The first study showed people prefer certain food combinations more than others.

For example apple and banana might be chosen slightly more often than apple and blackberries.

Remarkably, these preferences appear to be predicted by the amounts of micronutrients in a pair and whether their combination provides a balance of different micronutrients.

To confirm this, they ran a second experiment with different foods and ruled out other explanations.

To complement and cross-check these findings, real-world meal combinations as reported in the UK’S National Diet and Nutrition Survey were studied.

Similarly, these data demonstrated people combine meals in a way that increases exposure to micronutrients in their diet.

Specifically, components of popular UK meals e.g. fish and chips or curry and rice, seem to offer a wider range of micronutrients than meal combinations generated randomly, such as chips and curry.

The study is also notable as it features an unusual collaboration – Prof Brunstrom’s co-author is Mark Schatzker, a journalist and author.

In 2018, the two met when Schatzker delivered a talk about his book, The Dorito Effect, which examines how the flavour of whole foods and processed foods has changed, and the implications for health and wellness.

Prof Brunstrom explained: “Mark challenged the view among behavioural nutrition scientists that humans only seek calories in food. He pointed out, for example, that fine wine, rare spices and wild mushrooms are highly sought after but are a poor source of calories.

“This was all very intriguing, so I went to see him at the end and basically said: ‘Great talk, but I think you’re probably wrong. Do you want to test it?’

“That marked the start of this journey, which ultimately suggests I was wrong. Far from being a somewhat simple-minded generalist, as previously believed, humans seem to possess a discerning intelligence when it comes to selecting a nutritious diet.”

Schatzker added: “The research questions the modern food environment – does our cultural fixation with fad diets, which limit or forbid consumption of certain types of foods, disrupt or disturb this dietary ‘intelligence’ in ways we do not understand?”

“Studies have shown animals use flavour as a guide to the vitamins and minerals they require.

“If flavour serves a similar role for humans, then we may be imbuing junk foods such as potato chips and fizzy drinks with a false ‘sheen’ of nutrition by adding flavourings to them.

“In other words, the food industry may be turning our nutritional wisdom against us, making us eat food we would normally avoid, thus contributing to the obesity epidemic.” - The Star Malaysia 

 

Say goodbye to daily aspirin 

Daily aspirin no longer recommended for adults 60 and older

Doctors reverse recommendation on daily aspirin

THIS might be a tough pill to swallow.

People aged 60 and older are no longer recommended to take aspirin medication as a way of avoiding heart disease because of the potential health risks, the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) announced last week.

The new stance by the leading task force serves as an update to its 2016 guidance, which said people between 60 and 69 years old with at least a 10% risk of suffering from cardiovascular disease over the next 10 years should view taking low-dose aspirin daily as an “individual” decision.

“Based on new evidence since the 2016 Task Force recommendation, it is now recommended that once people turn 60 years old, they should not consider starting to take aspirin because the risk of bleeding cancels out the benefits of preventing heart disease,” reads the announcement by the USPSTF.

Meanwhile, people aged 40 to 59 with at least a 10% risk of 10-year cardiovascular disease should look at taking daily aspirin as an individual choice, the task force said.

“Daily aspirin use may help prevent heart attacks and strokes in some people, but it can also cause potentially serious harms, such as internal bleeding,” John Wong, a member of the task force, said in a statement.

“It’s important that people who are 40 to 59 years old and don’t have a history of heart disease have a conversation with their clinician to decide together if starting to take aspirin is right for them.”

The new guidelines apply to people who don’t have cardiovascular disease but are at high risk to develop it and haven’t begun taking aspirin each day.

The organisation also notes that about 605,000 people in the US suffer their first heart attack each year on average, while about 610,000 have their first stroke.

Heart disease accounts for more than 25% of deaths in the US, making it the leading cause in the country.

Aspirin is an anti-inflammatory drug that has been used for more than a century. It’s often taken to treat symptoms such as headaches, body aches and other cold-like ailments.

The task force is made up of 16 appointed volunteers who are each considered leaders within a field of health or medicine.- TNS