Uptick in loan defaults likely

 

Average NIMs of some local banks are expected to broaden slightly this year from the 2.28% registered in 2021. 

 

Higher loan defaults, among individual borrowers and corporates, are expected to emerge as interest rate hikes to reduce inflationary pressures grip the economy.

Although the higher rates are good news for banks in terms of profitability, they may also result in loan defaults in the near term.

UCSI University assistant professor in finance Liew Chee Yoong, who is also a fellow at the Centre for Market Education, said the gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio would be higher due to the latest interest rate hike. 

UCSI University assistant professor in finance Liew Chee Yoong

“The rise in interest rates will raise the interest expense of loan borrowers and increase their financial risk.

“Therefore, I will not be surprised if more individual and corporate borrowers will be in financial distress due to higher interest servicing this year.

“More loans will be impaired due to the higher likelihood of credit default by borrowers,” he added. StarPicks Sunway TES ICAEW- The ideal pathway towards a global career for SPM leavers

The GIL ratio is defined as gross impaired loans as a percentage of gross loans, advances and financing.

Bank Negara has raised its overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25% on July 6 amid positive economic growth prospects. It was the second consecutive increase after the 25 bps hike in May, which was also the first time the OPR was raised since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The OPR, which is a benchmark rate that allows banks to determine their lending and deposit rates, had been reduced by a cumulative 125 bps during the pandemic to a historic low of 1.75%.

RAM Rating Services Bhd co-head of financial institution ratings Wong Yin Ching said higher interest rates could impinge on some highly leveraged borrowers, although most borrowers would likely be able to absorb the slightly higher loan instalments.

RAM co-head of Financial Institution Ratings Wong Yin Ching, https://apicms.thestar.com.my/uploads/images/2022/07/11/1654838.jpg

“We may see the banking sector’s GIL ratio rise to 2.5% by end-2022, which is still deemed manageable in our view.

“Provisioning expenses, however, are not anticipated to increase in tandem with impaired loans as banks had judiciously built up provisioning reserves since the start of the pandemic.

“With most of the loan relief measures being progressively wound down in the first half of the year, defaults have begun to trend up,” she added.

The banking industry’s GIL ratio rose from 1.5% as of end-December 2021 to 1.64% as of end-May.

CGS-CIMB Securities analyst Winson Ng also expected higher GIL ratios this year.

“We expect the gross impaired loan ratio to increase 1.8% to 2% at end-December due to the credit risks from the Covid-19 and negative impact from higher inflation and interest-rate hikes.

“Headwinds, including higher inflation, could also be negative for asset quality and loan growth,” he said.

AmResearch banking analyst Kelvin Ong saw a gradual uptick in GIL ratio as the broad repayment assistance (including the Pemulih moratorium) had expired at end-June.

Asset quality ratio for the sector is expected to be higher at around 2% compared with 1.4% as of end December 2021, amid the transition towards targeted repayment assistance, according to him.

Commenting on the downside risk for the sector this year, Ong said: “Any prolonged or worsening supply chain disruptions will impact the pace of economic recovery and consequently affect our estimates for earnings growth of banks.

“Higher inflation pressures will impact consumer spending as well as profit margins of business loan borrowers which will lead to a potential deterioration in asset quality.”

Although most analysts expected the higher net interest margins (NIMs) to boost banks’ earnings from the latest OPR hike, UCSI’s Liew disagreed.

“I don’t think the higher OPR will improve the NIMs of banks. My prediction is that it will be reduced due to lowering demand for bank loans, which reduces the banks’ interest income and average earning asset value (that is, the amount of bank loans that are given out to borrowers).

“The increase in interest rates by the central bank will reduce the demand for bank loans from companies and individuals as the cost of financing becomes more expensive,” he said.

On the other hand, Liew said lenders would need to continue paying interest to risk-averse depositors who put their monies in banks during an economic uncertainty and this would reduce the NIMs.

According to RAM’s Wong, rising interest rates are a boon to NIMs as a majority of the domestic banking industry’s loans are floating-rate facilities, which would reprice faster than deposits.

That said, Wong added that the uplift in NIMs would be moderated by the increasingly deposit competition, as well as slower current and savings account expansion as some depositors go for term deposits.

Overall, Wong said the average NIMs of some local banks are expected to broaden slightly this year from the 2.28% registered in 2021.

NIM is a measure of the difference between the interest income generated by banks and the amount of interest paid out to deposits.

CGS-CIMB’s Ng, who forecast loan growth of 4% to 5% for this year, is projecting a 4% net profit growth, mainly driven by the OPR hike and lower loan loss provisioning.

Ong is maintaining a loan growth projection of 5% to 6% this year, premised on an expected gross domestic product expansion of 5.6% this year.

With the additional taxes due to Cukai Makmur or prosperity tax, the earnings growth for banks are expected to be flat at 1.5% this year, according to Ong. 

 Source link

Related posts

 

BANK NEGARA RAISES OPR TO 2,5% , Still a good hedge against inflation

      CLICK TO ENLARGE   PETALING JAYA: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara has increased the overnight policy rate (OPR) by...

Financial literacy and bankruptcy

  Stretching your ringgit: The importance of knowledge in this space cannot be more timely, especially when Malaysians are doing their level...

Latest Covid-19 Omicron BA.5 variant has landed Malaysia!

Five things we've learned about the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants

 

Malaysia entering new Covid-19 wave as Omicron BA.5 variant hits

Malaysia is entering a new Covid-19 wave, with the Omicron BA.5 variant already present in the country.

Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin said the ministry had already detected five BA.5 variants through genomic sequencing as of June 30.

"This means that BA.5 is already present in the country. These cases were found through genomic sequencing on positive cases between May and June.

"There is a big possibility that BA.5 has already spread widely in Malaysia," he told a press conference at Parliament today.

Meanwhile, Khairy said the country has seen a 31 per cent increase in Covid-19 cases from July 3 to 7.

He informed that hospitalisations had also increased by 13.7 per cent, from 835 patients last week to 968 patients this week.

"A majority of the cases are in categories one and two. This is something that we have expected," he said.

<

 

https://dai.ly/x8cbvyu

KUALA LUMPUR: Five cases of the fast-spreading Covid-19 Omicron BA.5 variant have been detected in the country, says Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin.

He warned the public that the ministry expected the number of Covid-19 cases to rise in the next few weeks as the newer Omicron variants spread easily.

ALSO READ: KJ: We may issue compounds if cases spike

Apart from these five cases, other cases of Omicron sub-lineage variants that have been detected were six cases of BA.2.12.1 and two incidents of BA.5.2.

“All these cases were detected between May and June. However, there are no cases of sub-lineage Omicron BA.4 recorded so far.

ALSO READ: Bracing for another wave of Covid-19 infections

“We are expecting that new infections will increase due to Omicron BA.4 and BA.5, especially the BA.5. This is because Omicron BA.5 spreads easily compared with previous Omicron variants BA.1 and BA.2,” he told a press conference here yesterday.

Khairy said the new Covid-19 wave should not be taken lightly as 4,020 cases were reported just on July 7.

ALSO READ: Many having second thoughts on second booster

From July 3 to 7, the ministry had already recorded 14,967 cases, which is an increase of 31% compared with the previous week’s 11,394 cases, he added.

There was also a 13.7% increase in hospital admissions to 968 patients during this period from the 835 patients in the previous week. Ten deaths were recorded.

He added that those who have completed their Covid-19 vaccination or had been infected previously could also be infected with this variant.

“Those who have not taken their booster, especially senior citizens and people who have comorbidities, should get their booster shot, as it is vital against the new wave of Omicron BA.5.

“A total of 7,393,199 (31.40%) people have not taken their first booster shot while 151,018 (6.06%) individuals have received their second booster shot as at July 7,” he said.

Khairy also said that the ministry’s technical committee was still looking into the need for a second booster shot among those aged 60 and below without any illnesses, while vaccination for those aged five years and below was still not recommended.

However, he said there were some people who used a loophole with the excuse of travelling to get a second booster shot.

The second booster is available free of charge at registered private vaccination centres listed at https://vaksincovid.protecthealth.com.my/find.

For those aged 18 to 59 in the immunocompromised category, Khairy advised they undergo an evaluation first before getting the second booster shot.

He also said that as at July 3, 4,001 patients who have taken the Paxlovid antiviral medicine showed no serious side effects. 

 Source link

Related stories:

Bracing for another wave of Covid-19 infections

Many having second thoughts on second booster

KJ: We may issue compounds if cases spike

Subvariants spreading like wildfire

Free Paxlovid for Covid-19 patients offered at health clinics

Join our Telegram channel to get our Evening Alerts and breaking news highlights

 

 

 Related posts:

 

 

Covid-19 patients can get antiviral drug Paxlovid for Free

 

Take second boosters

Financial literacy and bankruptcy

 

Stretching your ringgit: The importance of knowledge in this space cannot be more timely, especially when Malaysians are doing their level best to stretch their ringgit in order to cope with the increasing cost of living from inflationary pressures, which are spiralling out of control.

It is not enough to be good at your job. Managing your money well is as important as having good hygiene.

Lack of financial discipline reasons for bankruptcy

Using a credit card or apps wisely to accumulate points for future spending, waiting for bargains such as free shipping options or vouchers on ecommerce platforms on special days of the months to purchase necessities are just a few examples of being financially aware. 

FINANCIAL literacy is an important agenda for a country’s economic well-being.

Most governments around the world would like for their citizens to be financially literate, be it entrepreneurs, working professionals, white collar or blue collar workers.

It is not enough to be good at your job. Managing your money well is as important as having good hygiene.

Recently, the Malaysia Department of Insolvency (MDI) reported that 287,411 people in the country have been declared bankrupt as of March 2022.

Between 2018 and May 2022, there was an increase of 46,132 new bankruptcy cases.

Of this number, 59% (amounting to 27,365) of the bankrupt were aged below 44.

This led to the Prime Minister highlighting his concern on youth bankruptcy and requesting for the relevant authorities to look into this matter including potentially revamping the laws on insolvency.

It is important to note that due to the pandemic, our government has in fact raised the threshold of bankruptcy from RM50,000 to RM100,000 in 2020.

Many legal actions against defaulters of loans were also postponed due to the effects of the pandemic.

Personal loan main reason for default

Diving into the MDI’S statistics, I realised that the main reason for bankruptcy was due to default of personal loans with an overwhelming percentage at 42%, followed by hire-purchase loans (15%) and business loans (13.5%).

Personal loans have often been touted to charge exorbitant interest rates, especially credit card schemes.

A simple illustration: when month end comes, there are often three options to settle your credit card bill, namely statement balance, outstanding sum or minimum sum.

The right thing to do would be to settle the statement balance. Settling the outstanding sum in full means that the credit card user is paying down the credit card debts which isn’t yet due, which defy the purpose of utilising credit card in the first place.

Paying only the minimum sum, which many people often do, would lead to one incurring high interest on the outstanding credit card debt.

This would snowball to levels which are highly exorbitant.

The statistics above is telling because it shows that excess consumption pattern is a key reason for bankruptcy.

In terms of youth bankruptcy, it makes sense especially with social media propagating binge spending, splurging on luxury goods and the shallow mindset of keeping up with the Joneses.

Living beyond one’s means owing to social pressure simply isn’t going to go out of fashion, more so in today’s digital age.

Proliferation of get-rich-quick schemes and scams

There is no doubt the lack of financial discipline and bad spending habits are reasons which contribute to this social issue.

However, I believe another major contributing factor is the increasing number of scams and get-rich-quick schemes. These schemes often tap on the most vulnerable segment of the society, namely those who are greedy, desperate or naive.

Greed is one of human nature’s biggest weaknesses. Despite the evolution of mankind, this primal instinct has continued to flow through the DNA of mankind. I do not doubt the importance of greed as a driver for progress, but too much and it becomes fatal.

Desperation, especially in the case of hardcore poverty or extreme emergency without anyone to rely on, there is hardly any choice to seek help.

We have seen this episode played out, especially in the times of economic recession, high unemployment not unlike the period of pandemic we have all been through recently.

Of the three, the most addressable would be the one who is naive, in short, one who lacks the necessary knowledge.

Stretching your ringgit

The importance of knowledge in this space cannot be more timely, especially when Malaysians are doing their level best to stretch their ringgit in order to cope with the increasing cost of living from inflationary pressures, which are spiralling out of control.

I would like to put it on record: Accumulating financial knowledge does not mean becoming an investment prodigy. It can be as simple as understanding the various options for people to stretch their money.

One of the most common savings hacks would be to channel your monthly salary to a “flexi” or “semi-flexi” home loan account. This simple gesture every month automatically lowers the interest on the loan to be incurred.

Your unused funds will be utilised to further reduce the principal and interest while you have the option to withdraw the excess amount if you require to use the funds.

Using a credit card or apps wisely to accumulate points for future spending, waiting for bargains such as free shipping options or vouchers on ecommerce platforms on special days of the months to purchase necessities are just a few examples of being financially aware.

Of course, the best thing to do is to be prudent in spending, in essence practicing delayed gratification at all times.

The best investment is knowledge

It is a good sign that there is an increasing number of licensed financial professionals such as Chartered Financial Analysts and Certified Financial Planners out there today.

We also do see many more collaborative efforts between industry professionals working hand in hand with regulators in adopting social media to reach out to the masses.

With the advent of social media, it is also crucial to sift out genuine financial literacy advocates. After all, there are many free resources online today.

It is not to say the smartest people from the top of their professions cannot be hoodwinked. We have seen how 34-year-old Ng Yu Zhi of Envy Asset Management and Envy Global Trading swindled prominent people like the general counsel for Temasek Holdings Pek Siok Lan, criminal lawyer Sunil Sudheesan, ex-president of the Law Society Thio Shen Yi, chairman of Vickers Capital Group Finian Tan and CEO of Chuan Hup Holdings Terence Peh, among others.

This purported nickel trading scheme amounting to S$1bil (Rm3.2bil) was the largest fraud or Ponzi scheme in Singapore’s history. The best part, red flags were obvious where both of the perpetrator’s entities above were not licensed by Monetary Authority Singapore and he was promising 15% returns in three months to his clients.

Ultimately, it comes down to the individual and a good sense of financial awareness when managing one’s own hard-earned money.

The best investment is in yourself. Whether it is learning a new skill or advancing your education, self enrichment gives the best return on investment.

As Benjamin Franklin once said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest”. He can’t be wrong considering his face is literally on the US dollar bill even till today. - StarBiz,

Ng Zhu Hann, the CEO of Tradeview Capital. He is also a lawyer and the author of “Once Upon A Time In Bursa”. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

 

Switching banks for better deals 

 

Related posts:

 

Financial literacy and technology are key factors, will attract young investors

 

Promoting women entrepreneurs; mind your finances 

 

Be wary of these four types of financial predators

 

BANK NEGARA RAISES OPR TO 2,5% , Still a good hedge against inflation

      CLICK TO ENLARGE   PETALING JAYA: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara has increased the overnight policy rate (OPR) by...

 

A July jolt Handy price checker apps for you

  Consumers can download them to look for low prices and comparisons Cooking oil prices are up as of today, so are those of chicken and ...

 

A matter of Cost: Stretching their ringgit further

  Janet Chia, 48, watering the lettuce plants at her house compound in Seri Kembangan, Selangor. Chia and her husband have planted several v...

 

Food for thought on footing the bill

CLICK TO ENLARGE DEPRESSED wages, and a rising cost of living – these are the biggest tribulations facing the man on the street these days....

 

MALAYSIA Upbeat GDP forecast between 5.3% and 6.3%, Inflation to hover between 2.2% and 3.2% in 2022

 

 

 

 

BANK NEGARA RAISES OPR TO 2,5% , Still a good hedge against inflation

 

 

 CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

PETALING JAYA: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank Negara has increased the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.25% amid positive growth prospects for the local economy.

“For the Malaysian economy, economic activity continued to strengthen in recent months.

“Exports and retail spending indicators affirm the positive growth momentum, supported by the transition to endemicity, “ the central bank said in a statement yesterday.

The ceiling and floor rates of the corridor of the OPR are correspondingly increased to 2.5% and 2%, respectively.

The OPR, which is a benchmark rate that allows banks to determine their lending and deposit rates, had been reduced by a cumulative 125 basis points during the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, bringing it to a historic low of 1.75%.

Yesterday’s increase was a second consecutive one after a 25-basis-point hike in May, which was also the first time the OPR was raised since the onset of the pandemic.

OCBC Bank economist Wellian Wiranto said the fact that the central bank had not gone more “ballistic” with a 50-basis-point hike yesterday speaks of a “heavy preference for a gingerly approach in tightening.”

“That is a prudent thing, given how global recession fears are on the rise,” he said.

Going forward, he said he expects at least one more 25-basis-point hike this year that will be seen as a further normalisation of policy rate rather than outright tightening.

“It might then pause in the last meeting of the year in November to assess the balance between inflation and recession risks before undertaking any action thereafter,“ he added.

In its statement, the central bank said the extent of upward pressures on inflation will remain partly contained by existing price controls, fuel subsidies and the continued spare capacity in the economy.

“The inflation outlook continues to be subject to global commodity price developments, arising mainly from the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine and prolonged supply- related disruptions, as well as domestic policy measures,“ it said.

Year-to-date, headline inflation averaged 2.4%.

 

.In its statement, the central bank said the extent of upward pressures on inflation will remain partly contained by existing price controls, fuel subsidies and the continued spare capacity in the economy.

“While it is projected to remain within the 2.2%-3.2% forecast range for the year, headline inflation may be higher in some months due mainly to the base effect from electricity prices.

“Underlying inflation, as measured by core inflation, is expected to average between 2% and 3% in 2022, as demand continues to improve amid the high-cost environment,” it said.

Bank Negara said that in recent months, the unemployment rate had declined further, with higher labour participation and improving income prospects.

“Looking ahead, while external demand is expected to moderate, weighed by headwinds to global growth, economic growth will be supported by firm domestic demand.

“Additionally, the reopening of international borders since April 1 would facilitate the recovery in tourism-related sectors.”

Nevertheless, the central bank warned of downside risks to growth that continue to stem from a weaker-than-expected global expansion, further escalation of geopolitical conflicts and worsening supply chain disruptions.

“Even as it continues to project a strengthening economic recovery, things are likely to turn less rosy from here,” OCBC’s Wiranto said.

Bank Negara said that at the current OPR level, the stance of monetary policy remained accommodative and supportive of economic growth.

“The MPC will continue to assess evolving conditions and their implications on the overall outlook to domestic inflation and growth.

 

Rakuten Trade head of equity sales Vincent Lau told StarBiz yesterday’s hike was a reflection of confidence in the continued growth of the Malaysia economy.

“Any adjustments to the monetary policy settings, going forward, would be done in a measured and gradual manner, ensuring that monetary policy remains accommodative to support a sustainable economic growth in an environment of price stability.”

Meanwhile, Rakuten Trade head of equity sales Vincent Lau told StarBiz yesterday’s hike was a reflection of confidence in the continued growth of the Malaysian economy.

“With the increase in our benchmark rate, this may also stem the outflow of foreign money, which will technically see higher returns alongside the higher rate,” he said.

That said, the stock market fell over 20 points at the close yesterday after the hike was announced.

“It was probably a knee-jerk reaction as the hike had more or less been priced in already,” Lau said.

Bursa Malaysia’s fall was also in line with most regional markets as the fear of a global recession continued to rear its ugly head.

Nevertheless, at the close of the market yesterday, lenders like Malayan Banking Bhd and CIMB Group Holdings Bhdfinished higher as investors bought the stocks, banking on a higher OPR that could likely boost the lenders’ earnings. 

 Source link

 

Still a good hedge against inflation 

 

 https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/07/07/still-a-good-hedge-against-inflation

 

Higher rates may hurt real estate sector - The Star

 

Insight - The need to raise interest rates explained | The Star

 

 

Related:

 

Banks the big winners | The Star

 

Public Bank to raise base rates by 25 pct effective from Friday

 

Public Bank, Public Islamic Bank to increase its base rate by

 

Public Bank is16.1pct more profitable at RM5.66bil in 2021

More banks raise base rate by 25 bps | The Star

• Public Bank to raise base rates by 0.25% effective from Friday

• 

• CIMB to raise base rate by 0.25% following OPR...

• 

• Alliance to increase lending, deposit rates effective July 13

• 

 

CIMB to raise base rate by 0.25% following OPR revision

 

The Top 5 Ways to Hedge Against Inflation - Investopedia

 

Five reasons why you should buy a house - StarProperty

 

US seeks China's help to ease inflation in latest interaction

The US looks at reducing China tariffs amid soaring inflation in the country 

 

US and China Discuss Trump-Era Tariffs Biden May Ease

Yang Jiechi (center), a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Leading Group for Foreign Affairs, criticizes human rights issues in the US at the opening session of US-China talks in Anchorage, Alaska on March 18, 2021. Photo: AFP

 

The US is seeking help from China to ease its economic pressure, hinting that it may ease tariffs on Chinese goods and engage in dialogue with senior Chinese officials more often. However, analysts said Beijing will approach Washington's overtures with caution, as it is still trying to use the tariffs as bargaining chips rather than sincerely correcting its mistakes that have harmed both sides.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chief of the Chinese side of the China-US comprehensive economic dialogue, held a conversation via video link with US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen at the latter's request on Tuesday morning, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

As agreed by China and the US, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the meeting of G20 foreign ministers, Chinese Foreign Ministry announced on Tuesday. In June, the defense chiefs of both sides met in Singapore on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, and Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, met with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Luxembourg.

Such frequent communications between senior officials of the two sides show that China and the US are making efforts to manage the differences and competition to prevent escalation caused by miscalculations, while at the same time, the US is trying to seek China's help to ease the serious inflation the US is being confronted with, analysts said.

Chinese analysts said on Tuesday that although its economy is in disarray, the US is still being provocative in geopolitical issues to contain China. This means the US should not expect China to provide significant support for it to solve its domestic problems. The US tariffs have turned out to have a limited impact on the Chinese economy, and these are just part of the mistakes that the US must correct to bring bilateral ties back on track.

Heavy pressure

During the Liu-Yellen conversation on Tuesday, the two sides had a pragmatic and candid exchange of views on such topics as the macroeconomic situation and the stability of global industrial and supply chains. Their exchanges were constructive, the Xinhua reported on Tuesday.

The two sides agreed that as the world economy is facing severe challenges, it is of great significance to strengthen macro-policy communication and coordination between China and the US. Jointly maintaining the stability of global industrial and supply chains is in the interests of both countries and the whole world. The Chinese side expressed its concern about issues including the lifting of additional tariffs on China and sanctions by the US side, and fair treatment of Chinese enterprises, the Xinhua reported.

Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the US has been forced to engage with China because of its dreadful domestic economic situation.

"Joe Biden now is having a big headache as his approval rating is even lower than his predecessor Donald Trump at the same stage of presidency, which is a great humiliation. The pressure to win the midterms is heavy and serious, so he must find solutions to at least make some changes," Lü said.

Biden's approval rating was 39 percent as of June 30, according to an analysis by poll tracker FiveThirtyEight, while 56.2 percent of Americans disapproved of the way the president is handling his job, according to the Newsweek.

Trump's approval rating on July 1, 2018 was 41.8 percent, while 52.3 percent of Americans disapproved of him, figures from FiveThirtyEight show.

In 2018, Republicans suffered a major defeat in the midterm elections and lost 40 seats in the House of Representatives, handing control to the Democrats and allowing Nancy Pelosi to return as speaker.

Experts said the main factor that could influence the midterms later this year is the economy, so if the Biden administration cannot deliver some positive changes to ease inflation and gas prices and stop the economic decline, the Democrats are likely to repeat the failure of the Republicans in 2018.

Far from easing tension

According to Bloomberg on Tuesday, Biden may announce as soon as this week a rollback of some US tariffs on Chinese consumer goods - as well as a new probe into industrial subsidies that could lead to more duties in strategic areas like technology.

Although decreasing tariffs on Chinese goods has become an option for the US to solve some of its economic problems, it is still not clear what measures the US government will take next, experts said.

According to one estimate by the New York Federal Reserve, US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods through the middle of 2019 cost the American household an average of $831 per year.

"Decreasing tariffs on Chinese goods is a way to decrease inflation without the danger of hurting economic growth, but the US is not sure about the extent to which the tariff cuts would be effective in controlling price hikes. Therefore, the US government is still worrying about gains and losses and can't make up its mind," Gao Lingyun, a trade specialist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research institute at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Tuesday that "under the US' general strategy of containing China's rise, which is unlikely to change in the short term, the US might adjust some of the punitive tariffs on Chinese consumer goods, but at the same time intensify pressure on China, such as increasing sanctions on Chinese tech firms."

Lü said that judging from the US' failed COVID-19 pandemic response, Afghanistan withdrawal, inflation and the Ukraine crisis, we found "the US system of command is problematic, and the coordination between White House staff and cabinet officials is desperately wanting. Therefore, in the future, we have to be prepared for many uncertainties and even some overnight contingencies." He added that it is caused by the problematic decision-making system of the US side.

What should China do?

Gao said that China should insist on an reciprocal tariff policy with the US, meaning cutting the same amount of tariffs on US goods if the US reduces tariffs on Chinese products. China should also insist that tariff reductions should bring benefits to both countries, he said.

Bai noted that China should stick to its dual circulation policy, especially focusing on internal circulation so external policies would not affect China's economy to a great extent.

Chen Jia, a research fellow at the International Monetary Institute of the Renmin University of China, said that market data show that the US economy is deeply bogged down in stagflation, while recessionary risks are increasing, which means the US is still far from reaching a turning point to stop its economic situation from worsening.

On the other hand, the US is not making even small concessions in global strategies, rather it is showing an inclination to toughen the strategic encirclement of China, such as the recent Partnership for Global Infrastructure to target the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative.

"If the US is willing to seize the opportunity to restart China-US high-level communication on the basis of economic cooperation, and move to repair the damage it has caused in the past, China would of course welcome and support those moves. But if the US continues to treat its global partners arrogantly, then it won't get any help from developing countries including China," Chen told the Global Times. 

 Source link

 

RELATED ARTICLES

US changing cross-Straits status quo fearing China’s rise

The US is fundamentally reluctant to see the reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.

US’ Taiwan policy is ‘all gas, no brakes’

The US will continue to support the Taiwan island in ways that will irritate China, and is taking ...

China, US senior officials hold video talk, with Beijing raising concerns over tariffs and sanctions: report

 

China urges US to stop lies-based Xinjiang bill and to fulfill promise of no support to 'Taiwan independence'

The US should abide by the provisions of the Three Joint Communiqués, stop hollowing out the one-China principle, stop supporting “Taiwan independence” forces, and take concrete actions to safeguard the political foundation of China-US relations, Zhao Lijian, spokesperson of the ...

 

Related posts:

 

A new cold war in trade wars also is a tech war and currency war now !

US cannot break China’s supply chain

 

US ‘hegemonic tariff’ will not make America great again 

 

China-US high level strategic dialogue: Chinese diplomats deal vigorous counterblows to condescending US representatives; common ground hard to reach on contrasting logics