Here's a diet to help you live a long life

 

The sooner one starts eating healthy, the better, but research shows that even making the appropriate dietary changes in one’s 80s can lead to a longer life. — dpa

 

Humans have sought the fountain of youth and long life for millennia.

For longevity at least, scientists think they’ve found a potent intervention: proper nutrition, which, in contrast to our genetic makeup and certain living conditions, is alterable.

And it appears that not only what and how much we eat is important, but also when.

In an article published in the journal Cell, gerontologists Professor Dr Valter Longo and Dr Rozalyn Anderson examine hundreds of ageing and nutrition studies on simple organisms, laboratory animals and humans, and combine them with their own studies to come up with a “longevity diet”.

Lovers of calorie bombs such as burgers, chips and cola, or comfort foods like white chocolate, will be disappointed.

The two experts link limited calorie intake and periodic fasting to a lower disease risk and longer life expectancy.

Their longevity diet calls for 45%-60% of calories from non-refined complex carbohydrates, 10%-15% from mostly plant-based proteins, and 25%-35% from mostly plant-based fats.

Translated into practical terms, this means: “Lots of legumes, whole grains and vegetables; some fish; no red meat or processed meat and very little white meat; low sugar and refined grains; good levels of nuts and olive oil, and some dark chocolate,” says Prof Longo.

While meat lovers may turn their noses up at the sound of the diet, his recommended “recipes for longevity” include couscous with mixed fish, tomatoes, almonds and garlic; Tuscan bread salad; and pasta with eggplant and tomato sauce topped with ricotta salata, which hardly sound unpalatable.

The longevity diet also calls for restricting eating to an 11-12 hour timeframe daily and a few yearly cycles of five-day fasting-mimicking diets – a low-calorie meal plan developed at the Longevity Institute that’s formulated to simulate the body’s fasting state.

Must be adapted

Prof Longo and Dr Anderson emphasise that their longevity diet should be adapted to individuals based on sex, age, lifestyle, health status and genetics,

This is as no diet is equally suited, say, to a physically fit 20-year-old and a 60-year-old with a metabolic disorder.

People over age 65 may need to increase protein intake to prevent frailty and diseases resulting from reduced bone or muscle mass, or low blood cell counts, they write.

According to German Institute of Human Nutrition Department of Nutrition and Gerontology head Dr Kristina Norman, modifications of this kind are very important.

“It’s often difficult in old age to ingest sufficient protein, too little of which can cause muscle loss and increase the risk of falling and breaking a bone.

“Eating somewhat more meat than generally recommended can therefore be advisable.”

She sees many parallels in the proposed diet with familiar dietary recommendations, e.g. those of the German Nutrition Society (DGE), as well as an eating plan aimed at healthy – and environmentally responsible – nutrition proposed by scientists some time ago.

“Contrary to popular belief, recommendations on healthy eating don’t change every few years – for the most part, they’re highly stable,” she notes.

“The Longo study can be regarded as old hat, but the matter has been reassessed and backed by stronger evidence.”

Never too late

In the view of Dr Bernhard Watzl, former head of Hamburg-based Max Rubner Institute’s Department of Physiology and Biochemistry of Nutrition, which advises Germany’s Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture on consumer health protection in the nutrition sector, the overarching finding in the Cell review is that the quantity and quality of nutrition are key to long life.

“It’s better to consume too few calories than too many,” he says, adding that “The more demands that are placed on a system, the greater the wear it’s subjected to.”

So it’s important, he says, to keep demands at low levels.

As regards fasting, Dr Watzl is less convinced by the available data than Prof Longo and Dr Anderson are.

“Fasting is only for people unable to limit their calorie intake,” he says.

In such people, temporary abstinence from food can help to resensitise certain receptors in the body.

While he stresses it’s never too late in life to start eating healthily, Dr Watzl says sooner is better than later when it comes to preventing diseases that develop gradually over decades.

Prof Longo cited a Norwegian study that found even 60- to 80-year-olds gained several years in life expectancy when they followed many of the recommendations that are also part of the longevity diet.

The biggest gains, according to the study, came from eating more legumes, whole grains and nuts, and less red and processed meat.

Dr Watzl sees the dietary trend towards more wholemeal bread and muesli positively, but says “too much cheese or sliced sausage is often put on the bread – or white bread is eaten.”

He’s also critical of heavily-processed foods, not only because of the additives, but also the quick nutrient availability, which he says overtaxes metabolism.

ALSO READ: Ultra-processed foods are bad for your mind, heart and life

To optimise their longevity diet, Prof Longo and Dr Anderson advise personalising it in consultation with a nutrition specialist.

They also recommend focusing on smaller, more tolerable changes, rather than large ones that cause major weight loss followed – when the diet is abandoned – by a rapid “yo-yo-like” regain of fat.

“We propose that the longevity diet would be a valuable complement to standard healthcare and that, taken as a preventative measure, it could aid in avoiding morbidity, sustaining health into advanced age,” they write. – By Gisela Gross/dpa 

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US the biggest obstructer of global recovery in 2023, Ballooning US debt a ticking time bomb for world economy

 

llustration: Chen Xia/Global Times

The IMF said in its latest staff report that after decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of fragmentation, which could reduce global economic output by up to 7 percent. And with the addition of technological "decoupling," the loss in output could reach 8 to 12 percent in some countries, it warned.

In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation, geopolitical conflict, and regional economic uncertainty, among others, the IMF report actually points to one of the biggest worries for the global economy in 2023. At a time when the US push for the technological "decoupling" and abnormal transfer of industrial chains is "killing" globalization, it seems that fragmentation of the global supply chains and trade has become an inevitable trend, which is bound to seriously affect the global economic recovery.

The US is to blame for the current anti-globalization trend of the global economy. Over the years, the US has been trying to promote the returning of manufacturing jobs through various policies. During the process, these policies are gradually deviating from the principles and rules of free trade time and again as Washington increasingly doesn't care whether it hurts the interests of the rest of the world, such as requiring TSMC and South Korean chipmakers to shift production to the US.

For example, at the "relocation ceremony" of TSMC's first plant in Arizona last month, TSMC founder Morris Chang said that globalization and free trade are "almost dead," while US President Joe Biden claimed "American manufacturing is back" in his speech. This is perhaps the perfect manifestation of the US' disdain for globalization. 

Against this backdrop, there is an increasing tendency that factors determining global industrial chains and resource allocation are politicized, deviating from economic considerations. Some countries have a strong desire to strengthen their domestic industries and become wary of international cooperation, which may be the biggest crisis to globalization. 

By distorting and politicizing industrial policy, the US may be able to see a certain degree of manufacturing recovery in the short term, but in the long run, it will lead to a significant increase in the costs, creating unnecessary chaos in the global industrial chain. 

Moreover, with the excuse of improving the so-called supply chain security and resilience, the US has been seeking to isolate China from global supply chains, which is another important reason for the growing trend of industrial fragmentation. In the semiconductor sector, for example, the US has been hamstringing China with export bans for years, and it announced in October escalated measures to cut China off from certain semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world with US equipment. The US is also reportedly in discussions with Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea over restricting semiconductor exports to China.

The move affects not only China, but also the global semiconductor industrial chain, shattering the traditional consensus on the global division of labor that has developed over the past few decades. Everyone is a loser in the US-led "decoupling" drive, including American companies. The third quarter of last year alone saw more than $1.5 trillion wiped from the combined market value of American-listed chip businesses, according to an Economist report.

Indeed, the US is pursuing its global strategy aimed at containing China not just in the semiconductor sector, but also in such industries as photovoltaic and electric cars. By adopting various legislations targeting China, it has tried to wean its economy off or reduce its reliance on Chinese supply chains, so as to undermine China's economic momentum.

Yet, China's industrial chain and supply chain is an inseparable part of the world, also an important driving force of the global economy. It is widely expected that China's economic recovery will become a major source of optimism for the global economy in 2023. Washington's attempt to construct a global supply chain that excludes China and to contain China's rise will cause disruption to this chain and will have a major impact on the global economy and globalization, which is obviously not in line with the interests of most countries in the world, including the US. Global economic recovery needs China's supply chain. There is no substitute. If the US continues on the path of industrial fragmentation, it will be the number one obstructer of the global economic recovery. 

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Ballooning US debt a ticking time bomb for world economy

Illustration: Chen Xia/Global Times

The US policymakers seem to have steered the world's largest economy into unchartered territory, as it now faces multipronged challenges including persistently elevated inflation running at a 40-year high, a sputtering economy dragged down by a technical recession in the second quarter this year, and an enlarging federal debt which exceeded $31 trillion as of October 4 - a ticking time bomb for America and the world as well.

For the first time in history, the US' public debt outstanding has surpassed $31 trillion, data from the country's Treasury Department showed. A trillion dollars of debt was added in the past eight months alone, and it is close to reaching the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling that the US Congress set for the Biden administration's borrowing until early 2023. 

Since Barack Obama took office in January 2009, the US' aggregate borrowings have kept galloping, with the current reading of $31 trillion nearly tripling $10.6 trillion worth of debt in early 2009. When Donald Trump came to the White House in early 2017, he inherited $19.9 trillion debt. And, when Biden took office in January 2021, the federal debt was $27.8 trillion. It is widely expected that the US national debt will hit a minimum of $50 trillion by 2030, according to estimations by some American institutions. 

Like Japan, the US is increasingly becoming a heavily-indebted economy, with its national debt now accounting for approximately 140 percent of last year's GDP. Whether the US is going to face "two lost decades" of Japan-style anemic economic growth is unknown yet, but an incessantly bulging federal debt will definitely pose more problems for American policymakers, while chipping away at the US dollar's global reserve currency status, because a foundering US economy will inevitably reduce the importance of the greenback.

To make things worse, with inflation still running at more than 8 percent, the Federal Reserve has vowed to continue to raise interest rates in the coming months to tame stubborn price rises. Higher interest rates means that the US government will have to pay more for its huge borrowings, which raises questions about Washington's ability to service its debts, including the principal and increasingly larger interests.

As interest rates on US Treasury bonds rise, so will the federal government's borrowing costs. The US was able to borrow cheaply to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic because interest rates were at historically low in 2020. Now, interest rates on 20-year US Treasury bonds have grown to around 4 percent, meaning the US government will have to pay added interest costs of about $100 billion this year as the US central bank has raised rates from zero to 3-3.25 percent now. In May, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected the US' annual interest costs will reach $399 billion this year, which is forecast to surge to $1.2 trillion in 2032. 

The long-haul fiscal challenges facing the US are mounting. Since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the US government has relied on quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy, through heavy borrowing from home and abroad, to maintain a relatively fast economic growth, in addition to maintain lavish spending on its military, medical care and other social welfare projects. However, the structural imbalance between spending and revenues that existed before the pandemic has been intensifying, causing American federal debt levels rapidly piling up.

If the US national debt exceeds $50 trillion, while its GDP struggles at around $25 trillion, then the world's largest economy will be truly thrust into a big trouble. US GDP this year is estimated to be flat against last year's figure. It may recede in 2023 and 2024, as the Fed's higher rates chip in, while Trump's tariffs war plus Biden's semiconductors tussle with China will further dim the US' economic prospects.

And, there will be fiercer and also uglier partisan fighting in Washington on congressional appropriations in the coming months, because the federal government will be constrained by the lawmakers and American public to borrow more to fund defense, infrastructure, education, medical care, elderly's pensions and other initiatives. For many years, US presidents, both Republican and Democratic parties, have avoided making hard choices about the budget, failing to put it on a sustainable path.

With a ballooning national debt and a struggling economy, the US policymakers will get to find that the global reserve currency of the dollar is set to erode, as the country's growing budget deficits will naturally raise concerns about the ability of Washington to pay back the debt. If the US government continues to sell more Treasury bonds or even parachuting printed money to American households and enterprises, investors will take caution and avoid buying the bonds. In the past several years, more central banks have begun to reduce their holdings of US dollar-denominated assets. 

Once their faith in buying the US Treasury bonds is undermined, or if the US government further bundles its policies to cause a fiscal default one day, more foreign countries will join the rush to de-dollarize by dumping the US assets.  

Is the Biden administration able to stop the US national debt from swelling? The chances are very slim. In 2021 and 2022, the US debt has expanded by more than $3.2 trillion under Biden's watch. The debt count is expected to surge to $35 trillion when Biden completes his current term in January 2025. So, the country's fiscal sustainability will draw more close scrutiny by investors both domestically and around the world.  

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Stabilising period in the Year of the Rabbit 2023

    HSBC sees slower growth of 4.0pc for Malaysia's economy KLCI to hit 1,570 pts in 2023 The year of t

 Washington’s unsustainable deficit hangs over global economy

   

 

 

Stabilising period in the Year of the Rabbit 2023

 

 

HSBC sees slower growth of 4.0pc for Malaysia's economy KLCI to hit 1,570 pts in 2023

The year of the Rabbit would be a stabilising period that could see Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderate from the expected 8.4% for 2022 to 4% in 2023, although the latter figure may still be considered a “robust” expansion rate, according to HSBC’s Global Research Economics team.

The team said Malaysia has been a clear regional outperformer in a turbulent 2022, experiencing a GDP year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 14.2% for the first nine months of last year, making it Asean’s top performer for the second consecutive quarter in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22).

“Despite a cooling trade cycle, Malaysia’s external engine remained surprisingly resilient in the second half of 2022, benefitting from its well-diversified mix of exports.

“While some commodity prices cooled, they have stayed at an elevated level, boosting the country’s energy exports.

“Meanwhile, Malaysia’s electronics exports have defied the global trend, pushing its trade surplus to a historic high,” the team said at the HSBC 2023 Asian Outlook conference yesterday.

The team said Malaysia’s booming domestic demand has been the main growth driver, reflecting a continued reopening tailwind.

Underpinned by an ongoing improvement in its labour market, retail sales have seen speedy recovery, with consumption of goods and most services exceeding pre-pandemic levels, except for some tourism-related sectors, it said.

As such, its co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann predicted that Bank Negara would have to raise interest rates in the second quarter of 2023 – most likely to 3.5% – to keep a lid on lingering upward price pressures spilling over from last year due to the country’s extraordinary economic resilience.

On top of that, Neumann said Malaysia would remain one of the key beneficiaries of the supply chain “rejigging” that is occurring across Asia.

He expects high amounts of foreign direct investments continuing to pour into the country that would lead to further expansions in its export capacity.

“China’s reopening will benefit Malaysia’s economy, just as it will for other neighbouring economies. This is because China is a major export partner for Malaysia, which means the commodity angle would be positive.

“More importantly, Chinese companies are also investing in the country, particularly in the manufacturing sector,” said Neumann, adding that bilateral travel would also benefit the tourism sector.

The HSBC global economics research team also pointed out that while the local inflation rate has remained largely under control, in fact the lowest in Asean thanks to generous governmental subsidies, it has nonetheless accelerated.

“In particular, core inflation recently overshot 4% y-o-y, reflecting booming local demand. A large part of the inflation trajectory in 2023 will depend on the new Budget (2023).

“All in all, we believe core inflation will likely remain sticky and high in the near term and, as such, we recently upgraded our average core inflation to 3% for both 2022 and 2023,” it said.

Meanwhile, HSBC head of equity strategy for Asia-Pacific, Herald van der Linde, is expecting the FBM KLCI to hit 1,570 points by the year-end, representing a slight upside to its current standing.

He said the rationale for the forecast is the local bourse’s “stable” characteristic.

“When markets are down, investors want to be in Malaysia because it does not recede as much as the other countries.

“Conversely, if markets go into a recovery mode, as we are expecting in 2023, Malaysia is not expected to catch up as much either. It is more steady than many other bourses in the region.”

On a separate note, the team is bullish about China, projecting it to stretch its GDP growth to 5.8% next year from the 5% forecast for this year.

Chief economist for Greater China Liu Jing expects a strong rebound in the Middle Kingdom from 2Q23, the same quarter she believes the country will fully re-emerge from the lockdown effects.

“We expect consumption, which has been a laggard so far, to come back to record a growth level of approximately 8% in 2023.

“When China emerges from pandemic, the impact of housing market policy support will also materialise, giving way to what should be a modest rebound in the housing sector this year,” she said.

Van der Linde said the environment for Asian equities in 2023 would be constructive and the team remains overweight on China and India, expecting them to be the fastest growing markets this year.

“We are selective on Asean and Thailand remains our favourite market,” he said.

On how the team sees the US Federal Reserve (Fed) behaving this year – which has been and will continue to be the other major factor influencing market movement aside from the reopening of China – Neumann sees the Fed to be holding on to its rate of around 5%, before pivoting by the middle of 2024.

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Piloting spaceship Earth in the new year 2023

World Bank slashes 2023 forecasts, warns of global recession | ANC The World Bank’s latest outlook sees the global economy growing by only

Piloting spaceship Earth in the new year 2023

World Bank slashes 2023 forecasts, warns of global recession | ANC

The World Bank’s latest outlook sees the global economy growing by only 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024.

As we begin the new year and approach Chinese New Year, we need to reflect on how to face a grimly uncertain future.

Gold prices are back up, the Ukraine war grinds on horrendously, politics are messier than ever, and most analysts signal a recession ahead.

The World Bank’s latest outlook sees the global economy growing by only 1.7 percent in 2023 and 2.7 percent in 2024.

That’s a full one-percentage decline of 2.7 percent from the IMF forecast in October 2022. The bank thinks the downgrade in growth will affect 95 percent of advanced economies and nearly 70 percent of emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs).

The US and Europe are forecast to grow by 0.5 percent and 0 percent respectively for 2023, which I personally think is optimistic, particularly for Europe.

You cannot have a war without some serious costs. Brace for tough times.

The bank thinks that global inflation may “remain higher for longer.”

After peaking at 7.6 percent in 2022, global headline CPI inflation may remain at 5.2 percent in 2023 before easing to 3.2 percent in 2024, above its 2015-19 average of 2.3 percent per annum.

So, interest rates will remain elevated for longer, killing those poorest indebted economies, where total EMDE debt is at a 50-year high.

A divided word

If I were looking at the Earth from the Moon, I see a spaceship where the first class passengers are quarreling with the business class section, whilst the economy class passengers are suffering from overcrowding and worrying about a real crash.

The world is now divided into three blocs: the 1.1 billion rich West (Nato plus Japan and Australasia), the 1.7 billion East (which the West classifies as Russia and China, Iran, and North Korea), and the South (meaning the 5.2 billion rest of the world).

In short, the first-class passengers think that the business class is taking over and is doing everything to contain them, asking the economy guys to be on their side.

The South looks at this nonsensical cold war emerging and refuses to take sides, but since the West still controls the money (even though a lot is borrowed from the rest), everyone is on a “wait and see.”

Can someone please remind the captain and chief engineer that Spaceship Earth is wasting energy and polluting Planet Earth at unsustainable levels?

Instead of trying to land, the first two cabins are committed to more defense expenditure, decouple from each other, and label anyone who disagrees with them as revisionists or terrorists.

The world is already spending $2 trillion on defense annually.

Even without a nuclear war, which would be terminal, one study suggested that the richest countries are spending 30 times as much on their armed forces as they spend on providing climate finance, and seven of the top 10 historical emitters are among the top 10 global military spenders.

The latest jet fighters, missiles, and aircraft carriers are all energy guzzlers, and the Ukraine war shows the futility of destroying not just lives, but the whole environment.

Common sense needed

How can the Rest knock some common sense into Spaceship Earth?

For those of us used to dealing with different cultures, using your language, history, and culture to explain to another is like ducks talking to chickens.

You would have thought that science and rationality are a common, universal language.

The billions who have been taught science in English often find that using non-Western logic to explain their point of view to Westerners is often futile.

Modernity, often equated with the West, treats non-Western points of view as at best mystic, non-empirical, and therefore non-scientific, or worst, inferior.

This is changing fast after last year.

The Indians, like their foreign minister Jaishankar, are clearly leading the intellectual charge in formulating views from the South that are articulate and convincing—don’t drag us into fighting a cold war of your own making, we are only on our own side.

The Indian motto for G20 Summit this year, which they are hosting, is One Earth, One Family, One Future.

No family can survive quarrels by committing mutual suicide.

The one ancient Western philosopher who can bridge almost all cultures is emperor/philosopher Marcus Aurelius (121-180 AD).

Stonic philosophy

His stoic philosophy is not only worldly, but practical and personal in approach.

Unlike most desk-bound theoreticians, Aurelius was the last of the Five Good Roman Emperors, who applied his philosophy to government, war, personal life, and relationships.

His stoic approach views the importance of self-cultivation, self-reflection, self-control, and fortitude in order to master one’s emotions so that one can have a clear and unbiased ability to do one’s duty.

He does what he thinks is right, but is willing to accept that he himself may be wrong, needing to understand the other’s point of view.

Aurelius’ “Meditations” showed remarkable awareness that mastery requires self-discipline and the exercise of unbiased judgment.

He accepted change and death, humility, not fame and status, and sought truth from understanding: “When another blames you or hates you, or people voice similar criticisms, go to their souls, penetrate inside, and see what sort of people they are. You will realize that there is no need to be racked with anxiety that they should hold any particular opinion about you.”

Making lives better

For those in first class, remember that no one is entitled to first class forever. For those in economy class, we may not be able to knock sense into those in the privileged classes, but at least we can do something at the local level to make life better for our families and our communities.

Aurelius is surely correct in understanding that a good life is when you know you have enough and overall happiness is that less is more for the more, not more for the few.

I may not be able to change Spaceship Earth, but enough that I can change myself.

Happy Year of the Rabbit. Asia News Network 

    By: Andrew Sheng,  Andrew Sheng is former chair of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission.

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