Showing posts with label Business & Economy. Show all posts

Wednesday 5 October 2022

Malaysia not in crisis as State of economy goes beyond ringgit's showing

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State of economy goes beyond ringgit's showing

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/10/05/state-of-economy-goes-beyond-ringgits-showing

Malaysia's weakening ringgit not reflecting state of economy ...

Inflation likely to peak in the third quarter of this year.

PETALING JAYA: One could not help but notice that Bank Negara governor repeatedly emphasised in her latest speech – three times to be exact – that the Malaysian economy is no longer in a crisis.

Tan Sri Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus highlighted that the economic recovery is well underway, although she acknowledged that the future ahead will be “challenging, highly uncertain and unpredictable.”

Interestingly, in the same speech at the Khazanah Megatrends Forum 2022 yesterday, Nor Shamsiah warned that Malaysia could be left behind if no reforms are done.

“As a country, we must now focus on strengthening our economic fundamentals, resilience and flexibility.

“Our neighbours within the region are actively pressing on with reform measures. We run the risk of being left behind if we do not act now,” she said.

Amid speculation that a recession is imminent, Nor Shamsiah advised Malaysians not to act in a manner that jeopardises the recovery and the confidence of investors, which in turn can create a “negative self-fulfilling cycle.” StarPicks

Commenting on the economy, Nor Shamsiah noted that Malaysia’s investment activity and prospects continue to be supported by the realisation of multi-year projects.

The country’s exports have also been recording double-digit growth since the start of 2021.

Nor Shamsiah also said that the labour market has shown strength.

“Wages in both the manufacturing and services sectors have been increasing since the start of the year, at around 5% and 7%, respectively.

“Unemployment is now less than 4% and income prospects remain positive,” she said.

On price pressures, the central bank head said Malaysia’s inflation remains well anchored, with headline inflation averaging 3.1% year-to-date.

“It is largely supply-driven but we have also seen stronger demand with the reopening of the economy.

“That said, we project that inflation will peak in the third quarter of this year.

“In addition, the extent of upward pressures to inflation will remain partly contained by the existing price controls and the prevailing spare capacity in the economy,” she said.

Despite her optimistic view on the outlook, Nor Shamsiah acknowledged that rising geopolitical tensions and conflict, global inflationary pressures and extremely volatile financial markets will lead to slower growth in 2023.

However, she also pointed out that the fundamentals of the local economy and financial system are strong.

“The preemptive policy measures taken will help us to weather this storm,” she said.

With regard to the weakening ringgit against the US dollar, Nor Shamsiah said it is not a reflection of the state of the economy.

“The exchange rate is only one indicator among many.

“Like I said at the start, it is important to consider the strength and positive performance of the Malaysian economy.

“Growth is robust, the labour market is healthy and the financial system is resilient and continues to perform its role effectively,” she said.

Nor Shamsiah also noted that Malaysia has a strong external position with more foreign currency assets than foreign currency liabilities.

“Foreign currency borrowings only account for less than 3% of total federal government debt,” she said.

Between January and September 2022, the ringgit has depreciated by 10.2% against the US dollar.

The current depreciation of the ringgit is due to the strength of the US dollar.

Nor Shamsiah called upon corporate Malaysia to help maintain “orderly market conditions” by taking action that do not exacerbate the ringgit’s depreciation against the greenback.

“Bank Negara will ensure that our onshore foreign exchange market remains liquid, so businesses can be assured that all their foreign currency needs can be efficiently fulfilled.

“So there is no need to hoard or front-load US dollar purchases.

“Corporates and domestic financial institutions should also be prudent in managing their balance sheets.

“This includes to avoid creating new vulnerabilities, especially from foreign currency debt and financial imbalances, as well as hedging their risks appropriately,” she said.

As for businesses and investors that benefit from a ringgit depreciation, the central bank governor urged them to take advantage of the weaker ringgit.

“For example, for those in tourism and exports to increase production and capitalise on this opportunity, and for those with a global presence, to reinvest back home,” she added.

Khazanah Nasional managing director Datuk Amirul Feisal Wan Zahir, who also spoke at the Khazanah Megatrends Forum 2022, shared Nor Shamsiah’s views on reform initiatives.

He pointed out that Malaysia is still “too far down” the value chain of productive work and that growth has to be fully inclusive.

“Our past growth was based on foreign direct investments-driven, low-cost competitive manufacturing – this no longer serves at our current stage of development.

“Long term structural reforms are required – but these will require substantial resources.

“And future growth must not allow inequality to persist, it must be fully inclusive of all socio-economic classes, and fully include women – where structural norms have long impeded opportunities for this demographic,” he said.

Amirul also spoke on climate change, highlighting that there is much work to be done, globally and collectively.

“But this does not mean that all countries have the same work to do, the same amount of pain to bear, the same standards of accountability.

“There is nothing fair and equal about climate change,” he said.

He mentioned about the devastating floods in Pakistan, in which an area three times the size of the country of Portugal went under water, and yet Pakistan produces less than 1% of the global greenhouse gas emissions.

In order to meet critical climate goals, Amirul said the world needs to ensure a “just transition”, which is much more complex and nuanced than a common standard for all nations.

“Just six national entities are responsible for producing over 70% of the greenhouse gas already emitted in human history, namely the United States, the European Union, China, Russia, the United Kingdom and Japan.

“Malaysia’s contribution, as of 2020, has been a mere 0.37%.

“New ‘targets’ are not so easily attained by developing countries, who suffer the most from climate change, and yet historically have contributed the least to causing it,” he said.

Amirul also added that all businesses and organisations have an ethical duty to act immediately and must not just wait for regulations to be imposed.

“This is why Khazanah Nasional has already defined and adopted a Sustainability Framework which encompasses environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards.

“We have published these on our website to make them fully public, and they include carbon-neutral operations by 2023, net-zero emissions by 2050, 30% of board and senior leadership positions to be held by women by 2025 and ESG-linked key performance indicators for key leadership positions in our portfolio companies by 2023,” he said.

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Malaysia's economy is not in crisis: Bank Negara governor

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2022/10/836783/malaysias-economy-not-crisis-bank-negara-governor

Malaysian economy not in crisis: Bank Negara Malaysia

Governor's Feature Address at the Khazanah Megatrends ...

https://www.bnm.gov.my/-/g-spch-khazanah-megatrends-2022

We’re not headed towards a currency crisis, says Finance...

Pegging the ringgit not in Malaysia's best interest - YouTube

US economy in technical recession as Q2 GDP shrank 0.6% amid toxic policies

Repercussions of the US Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike cycle have emerged across the global economy and in the US, as the US economy falls into technical recession after two straight months of negative growth, final GDP data showed on Thursday.

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The strong dollar should not become a sharp blade to cut the world, THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III

Is the Dollar the key to US hegemony? Illustration:Chen Xia/Global Times The US Federal Reserve will hold a new policy meeting on...

Wednesday 28 September 2022

Steady residential property sector and positive 1H property market data trends, Malaysia

Market spurred by latent demand post pandemic

“Residential property transaction volume and values are up year-on year in 1H22.” Datuk Siders Sittampalam >>

SINCE the resumption of economic activities and reopening of international borders, the residential property market has seen a pick-up in activity.

According to the National Property Information Centre (Napic), the residential property sector recorded 116,178 transactions worth Rm45.62bil in the first half of 2022 (1H22), which was an increase of 26.3% in volume and 32.2% in value year-on-year.

However, in light of prevailing uncertainties such as the upcoming Budget 2023, potential 15th General Election and macroeconomic headwinds, can the steady trend so far be sustained for the remainder of 2022?

PPC International managing director Datuk Siders Sittampalam says it’s “anyone’s guess” how the local residential property market will fare for the remainder of this year.

“With plenty going on such as the looming elections and global economic uncertainty, it could have an indirect effect on the property market,” he tells Starbizweek.

Still, Siders says the residential sub-sector has been off to a good start this year.

“Residential property transaction volume and values are up year-onyear in 1H22 and it’s been the highest increase since 2016.

“This can be attributed to latent demand, post pandemic. Many that held back purchases in the market are now back again (since January 2022),” he says.

Siders adds that loan approvals have also picked up, adding however that approval rates are still below pre-pandemic levels.

He also points out that the increase in interest rates so far this year has not had an impact on the market (in terms of demand).

“Going forward, I believe that volume and values should sustain, just like how they were in the first half of this year. It will be steady, barring unforeseen factors, be it domestically or externally.”

According to Napic, the property market performance recorded a rebound in 1H22, a reflection of normalising economic activity as the country moved towards endemicity.

“With the positive projection on economic growth by Bank Negara (at between 5.3% and 6.3% in 2022), supported by the implementation of various government initiatives and assistance, the property market performance is expected to be on track.”

Meanwhile, CBRE|WTW in its property market performance for 1H22, believes that moving forward, transactional activities should remain resilient in locations with good accessibility and comprehensive amenities.

“Developers are anticipated to remain prudent, focusing on established townships and mature locations. In addition, upcoming launches would see a shift towards more sustainable elements to meet buyers’ shift for cost-efficient and eco-friendly homes.”

As at the first quarter of 2022, CBRE|WTW says the Klang Valley landed residential sector remained encouraging.

“Average transacted prices rose 6.8% year-on-year while transacted volume increased 11.2% year-onyear (more than 9,100 units), but was less than the 10,000 units transacted in the fourth quarter of 2021.”

CBRE|WTW says new launches picked up slightly in the second quarter, despite developers maintaining a cautious approach.

“Landed launches continue to perform well and launch prices of terraced houses remained between RM500,000 and RM800,000, except for some priced above the Rm1mil mark in the City of Elmina, Setia Eco Templer and KL East.”

Meanwhile, locations such as Klang Valley South, such as Sepang, Salak Tinggi and Kuala Langat remain the hotspots, says CBRE|WTW.

It says these locations recorded consistent growth, encouraged by industrialisation and good road accessibility.

“Several areas located in the north of Klang Valley are also hotspots of new launches, typically in Rawang, Puncak Alam and Sungai Buloh.”

As for high-rise residential units, Siders says a market study needs to be conducted to ease the oversupply of such properties.

“Comparatively, landed properties tend to do well as there’s always demand,” he says.

Siders also believes that the government could consider bringing back the Home Ownership Campaign (HOC) to spur the market.

To help drive the sector, the government introduced the HOC in June 2020 under the Penjana initiative.

The campaign ended on Dec 31, 2021. Many industry observers and property players believed that the HOC was a huge help to the market and urged the government to extend the campaign period into 2022.

Meanwhile, CBRE|WTW says additional measures are still required to improve market activities for the high-rise residential sub-sector.

“The waiver of stamp duty should continue. A continual increase of the overnight policy rate (OPR) is expected in 2H22 amid the global high-cost environment.

“Since project launches have been limited, competition would also not intensify, with prices remaining stagnant. The cost of borrowing may further impact demand and prices if there is an additional OPR hike 2H22.”

CBRE|WTW adds that the upcoming launch of Mass Rapid Transit 3 may benefit property valuers along the route, including an increase in project launches, particularly in Mont Kiara.

“Moving forward, developers may shift focus to offerings emphasising exclusivity and low-density living with better facilities.”

CBRE|WTW says the existing supply of high-rise residential units stood at 68,555 units in 1H22, whilst 219,398 units are in the pipeline for completion by 2024.

“The bulk of incoming supply will be in central Kuala Lumpur, namely the golden triangle area (30%).”

On market activity, CBRE|WTW says both the average transacted value and asking rents are stable at RM779 per sq ft and RM3.80 per sq ft, respectively, supported by the increased interest from homebuyers and renters.

“The average occupancy rate also increased slightly to 64% due to improved market conditions. Following that, project launches have been limited and the focus is still on the sales of ongoing projects.

“Nonetheless, two transit-oriented development projects were launched in 1H22 in Pudu and Bukit Damansara, with unit sizes ranging from 480 sq ft to 1,080 sq ft priced from RM360,000 and units sized from 1,001 sq ft priced from Rm1.8mil and above.”

According to Napic, Penang, Kuala Lumpur, Johor and Selangor formed about 47% of the total national residential volume in 1H22.

“More than 10,000 units of new launches were recorded, down by 66.7% against 31,687 units in 1H21.”

Against 2H21, the new launches were lower by 13.3% (2H21: 12,173 units),” it says.

“Sales performance for new launches stood at 20.3%, slightly lower than 1H21 (20.6%) and 2H21 (28.1%).”

According to Napic, Johor recorded the highest number of new launches in the country, capturing nearly 23.8% (2,509 units) of the national total with sales performance at 31.8%.

Sabah recorded the second highest number (1,335 units, 12.7% share) with sales performance at 10.6%. This was followed by Perak (1,317 units, 12.5% share) with sales performance at 19.4%.

Terraced houses dominated the new launches. Single storey (2,047 units) and two-to-three storey (5,150 units) together contributed 68.2% of the total units with sales performance at 22%, followed by condominium / apartment units at 19% share (2,009 units) with sales performance at 12.4%.

By eu.ene MAHALIN.AM eugenicz@thestar.com.my

Positive 1H property market data trends

THE recently released property market data for the first half of 2022 (1H22) by the National Property Information Centre (Napic) showed that the Malaysian property market has found a firmer footing over the review period.

On a half-yearly basis, while transaction volume and value surged to a new record high of 188,002 units worth Rm84.4bil, what was most revealing is that the overhang market trend has finally eased, while future and planned supply was reduced.

For the past four years, this column has been calling for stricter measures to control the market’s oversupply situation and for property developers to be more mindful of the market’s overhang status.

The data for the 1H22 shows that finally, some sanity has set in.

Having said that, as far as prices are concerned, the Malaysian House Price Index (HPI), as seen in Figure 1, continues to show a declining trend with the growth in the 1H22, slowing down to just 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), dragged by a 2.5% y-o-y drop in Penang HPI, and in terms of segment, detached homes and high-rises continue to dictate the downtrend with a 2.3% and 0.5% y-o-y drop respectively.

An improved picture

For property overhang, this column aggregates the supply in the residential segment and takes the data from both service apartments and the Soho sub-segment to gauge the market’s overall residential overhang status.

After all, it is the combination of the three that is the real market supply in the residential market segment as shown in Figure 2.

In total, the residential overhang eased to 59,321 units valued at Rm42.59bil.

Although compared with a year ago, the number of overhang units and value increased by 3.8% and 2.5% respectively, the overhang situation for the residential segment improved as both the number of units and value dropped by 6.5% and 4.4% respectively compared with six months ago.

Nevertheless, the overhang situation within the high-rise segment (which includes residential high rise, commercial service apartments, and Soho units) remains elevated.

For the 1H22 period, Napic data showed that the overhang data is now at a new record high of 45,502 units against 44,800 units as at end of 2021.

Only in terms of value, the 1H22 figure is relatively flat at Rm33.22bil against Rm33.32bil six months ago.

Overall, this translates to 76.7% of the overall market overhang in volume and almost 78% of the total value.

The overhang situation within the high-rise segment has indeed increased as more than three out of four unsold properties are highrise units.

A steep drop

Figure 2 also shows the property market’s unsold units that are under construction.

From here, one would note that the 1H22 data showed a total of 108,826 units remained unsold valued at Rm60.95bil, down by 12.5% and 9.6% compared with a year ago, and lower by 9.7% and 6.4% when measured against the market’s position six months ago.

With the lower overhang and those under construction, overall, the market saw total unsold properties down to 168,147 units worth some Rm103.54bil.

Compared to a year ago, when the figure was 181,460 units worth Rm108.93bil, the data for 1H22 saw a drop of 7.3% in volume and 4.9% in value respectively.

When compared with the 183.918 units worth Rm109.69bil as at end of 2021, the 1H22 data showed a reduction of 6.4% in volume and 8.6% in value respectively.

For the residential segment by state, the key overhang is located in Kuala Lumpur and the states of Selangor, Johor, and Penang as they account for 59% of total overhang units worth some Rm16.2bil, which translates to 74.5% of the total overhang value in the residential segment.

In terms of price points, properties marketed at above RM500,000 account for 43.4% of the market’s overhang.

For service apartments, Johor, Selangor, and Kuala Lumpur are key geographical areas with the most overhang with a total of 96.8% of the segment’s overhang in terms of units and 97.5% in terms of value.

Johor alone accounts for 68% of the segment’s total number of units and nearly 69% of the segment’s total value at Rm13.34bil.

Interestingly, in terms of the number of units, 89% of service apartment overhang in Malaysia are priced at RM500,000 and above, valued at Rm18.36bil, and they represent 95% of the total service apartment overhang valued at Rm19.32bil. As this column has repeatedly highlighted in the past that Malaysia has a serious overhang issue, we are now finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel as the market has now seen a drop in future supply.

For easy reference, the data in Figure 3 for future supply includes starts, incoming supply, planned supply, and planned new supply.

Overall, other than a 34% jump in purpose-built office space to 2.59 million sq m, all other segments are seeing a downtrend in future supply with a reduction in the total number of units by between 8.1% for the industrial segment to as much as 26.2% in future hotel room supplies. The residential, service apartments and the Soho segment saw a reduction of 16.3% in the total number of units to 1.196mil units from 1.430mil units six months ago.

As a percentage of total in-stock, the future supply is lower by between 0.8 percentage points (pps) for the industrial segment to 21.1 pps for the residential segment.

A word of caution though. Despite the reduction in future supplies, the incoming supply for both the service apartment segment and Soho remains significant at 104.4% and 92.8% respectively.

Despite the positives, the property market remains challenging as we are still saddled with a high overhang as well as incoming supply. While the positives are there based on the 1H22 data, it is not time to pop the champagne just yet as it will still take a while (three to five years) for a more positive trend to emerge.

Overall, the Malaysian property market is still up against a massive over-supply situation and prices too are not expected to improve much, as evident from the flattish growth or worse, negative, in the Malaysian HPI.

Given the higher borrowing cost with an increase in the overnight policy rate, homebuyers are expected to remain cautious.

StarBiz PANKAJ U. KUMAR

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Is the Dollar the key to US hegemony? Illustration:Chen Xia/Global Times The US Federal Reserve will hold a new policy meeting on...

Tuesday 20 September 2022

The strong dollar should not become a sharp blade to cut the world, THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III

Is the Dollar the key to US hegemony?

Illustration:Chen Xia/Global Times

The US Federal Reserve will hold a new policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision on interest rate growth being the limelight. It is widely anticipated that the Fed will deliver at least another 75-basis-point interest rate hike to tame inflation. This might further increase the value of the US dollar against other currencies, which is at its 20-year high. Driven by the Fed's aggressive rate hikes, the US dollar is viewed as "experiencing a once-in-a-generation rally." For many countries in the world, this might be the beginning of another nightmare.

The meeting will witness the fifth time that the Fed will raise interest rates. The direct reason is to ease the high pressure of inflation in the US. But if people dig the root cause, this is an inevitable consequence of US' blind and unlimited money printing to temporarily maintain "prosperity." In other words, in the face of the deep-seated problems exposed by the 2008 financial crisis, Washington has been powerless, and unwilling as well, to solve them. Instead, it was extremely short-sighted to cover up the crisis and curry favor with the Wall Street, while taking advantage of the hegemony of the US dollar to quietly treat the crisis like dumping wastewater - draining it to the world.

A super strong US dollar and the fall of other currencies will, to a certain extent, ease the scorching inflation in the US economy, but the world will have to pay for it, which is often referred to as "when the US is sick, the world has to takes pill." The ensuing severe inflation, economic recession and other problems have already appeared on a large scale in many countries. Thirty-six currencies around the world have lost at least one-tenth of their value this year, with the Sri Lankan rupee and Argentine peso falling by more than 20 percent, since the dollar strengthened.

This has not only worsened the already weak economies of Europe and Japan, but also forced a large number of developing countries to swallow the bitter pills of the economic recession caused by imported inflation. Countless families were impoverished overnight. This is a very abnormal situation that is not supposed to occur, but it is the cruel truth behind the US "containment of inflation."

In fact, since the end of World War II, the US has used dollar hegemony to carry out "financial looting" or "export crises" against other countries several times. As a widely popular phrase in the West goes, the US enjoys the exorbitant privileges created by the dollar and the deficit without tears, and used the worthless paper note to plunder the resources and factories of other nations.

Each round of dollar appreciation in the past decades has been accompanied by extremely bad memories: The Latin American debt crisis broke out in the first round, Japan suffered from the "lost two decades" during the second round and the Asian financial crisis took place during the third. Particularly in the Asian crisis, which is still fresh in many people's memories, more than 100 million middle-class people in Asia fell into poverty, according to the World Bank estimation. The strengthened dollar, time and again, cuts the world like a sharp blade.

Therefore, while the political elites in Washington boast of the "myth of the American system" and take credit for "alleviating the crisis," thousands of poor families around the world are being trampled by them. They are not unaware of this, but still collectively choose to be indifferent and arrogant, as if this is the privilege that the "hegemon" should enjoy. As US former treasury secretary John Connally put it in the 1970s, "The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem." Today, the dollar is once again the world's problem. In a sense, it's hard to believe that the "prosperity" of the US is clean and moral.

However, the crisis cannot be covered up forever. Washington keeps laying mines but never removes them, which will eventually explode the US itself. The incompetence of US financial policymakers has been exposed by the consecutive interest rate hikes that have contributed to the abnormal appreciation of the US dollar with the purpose of defusing the severe inflation.

For the US itself, what will rise accordingly are the cost of corporate financing, the pressure on residents to repay their loans, and the price of export production among others. Meanwhile, the credibility that the US dollar has as a global currency is being continuously exhausted by the US "beggar-thy-neighbor" policy. Now the anxiety and insecurity brought by the US dollar to the world has heralded the beginning of the decline of its hegemony - regarding Washington's insatiable exploitation, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and other regions have explored the path of "de-dollarization," leading to the inevitable diversification of the international monetary system.

The best way to restrain the rampaging hegemony is to practice true multilateralism. Whether it was the Asian financial crisis in 1997 or the global financial crisis in 2008, the world seemed to have stumbled more than once by the same stone, which, however, is not that firm anymore. The instability and fragility of international financial markets have once again become prominent. It is precisely at such times that the international community should be more determined to cooperate and build a reliable, systemic and long-term multilateral international financial system. This cannot wait.

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THE NEED FOR BRETTON WOODS III

World Affairs - Non-Partisan and Objective

The United States of America is in big trouble, short term and long term. In 2022, the stock market is crashing, bond market is down the most in 40 years, housing bubble is bursting, inflation is skyrocketing, debt is exploding, and GDP is shrinking. These are not temporary crises. Instead, they reveal systemic flaws in the American economy that is propped up by a rigged global financial system.

However, that fraudulent system is starting to crumble and the primacy of US dollar is in serious trouble, thanks to an emerging multipolar world. (Don't believe the nonsense that the US can keep printing infinite amount of dollars).

The US needs to default on its debt and start new. Declare bankruptcy and yet remain the #1 country. This will be the "Bretton Woods III" agreement.

Sounds ridiculous? Well, it's possible only if all the other countries are weak and nobody is strong enough to challenge the US.

This is why the US must not only crush Russia and China — its two biggest geopolitical rivals, but also weaken Europe. This paves the way for the US to establish a new global order which is similarly rigged and just as deceitful and corrupt — in order to prolong the American Century.

Dollar Hegemony

America's extraordinary power comes from the power of US dollar, which is the established global currency for trade. This also means that countries around the world have to accumulate US dollars in their foreign exchange reserves. But the US has been abusing its power by weaponizing the dollar through sanctions and confiscations of hard-earned reserves.

No wonder that China, Russia and others are seeking ways to circumvent the dollar in trade. Since 1999, the share of US dollar assets in central bank reserves has dropped by 12 percentage points—from 71 percent. Hence the share of US dollar in global reserves is now only 59%. When that number falls below 50%, the tectonic shifts in global finance will become more apparent to Americans.

To fully grasp the nature of the current world order, let's see how the US established the dollar as the world currency, carried about the biggest gold heist in human history, then defaulted on its obligations, but revived the moribund dollar with a clever deal. That's the story of Bretton Woods I and II.

Bretton Woods I - Gold-backed Dollar

WW2 was a wonderful thing for the US. First, it took the US economy out of the Great Depression. The US played the role of arms supplier and gladly watched European empires destroy themselves. Even before the war was over, the US brought in all the allies to Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and said, "When the war is over, you will all be weak and broke. I will be the new empire and my dollar will be the global currency. And it will be as good as gold -- a guaranteed rate of $35 per ounce of gold."

This meant that if you have $35, you can go to a bank and get an ounce of gold!

The world agreed. When the war was over, everyone bought US dollar with gold and used it for trade. Huge amounts of gold were also physically transferred from Japan, Germany and other parts of the world into the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.

This system worked until 1971 when the US suddenly declared that, "Oops, the dollar is not backed by gold anymore. If you have US dollars, they are just pieces of paper now. You cannot get your gold back!" People called it the "Nixon Shock."

1970s - When Fiat Dollar almost died

This was also the biggest gold theft in human history. But what could the world do? America had nuclear weapons and the mightiest military.

Of course, the switch to a fiat currency caused havoc. The value of US dollar fell precipitously and inflation skyrocketed. The US economy was in deep trouble. That's when the US elites came up with a clever idea to rescue the dollar and restore its primacy.

Bretton Woods II - The Birth of Petrodollar

How to make the dollar relevant? Hmm...What if everyone needed US dollar to buy something essential?

Like ... OIL. Brilliant!

This was the birth of Petrodollar.

Basically, the U.S. used Saudi Arabia’s oil to save the dollar. That is, Saudi Arabia (and other smaller producers) would sell oil only for US dollars. And to make sure that the Saudis don't get too powerful, they will be forced to recycle most of their profits back into the US economy. It was also a protection racket, which meant the US military would occupy Saudi Arabia and protect it from enemies.

Saudi King Faisal with Kissinger. Birth of Petrodollar. But why would the Saudis agree to this? Because the U.S. make Saudi Arabia the new king of oil and the most influential Middle East power ... after crippling Iran.

Win-win for the US.

Thus, the U.S. armed and funded Saddam Hussein of Iraq to wage a decade-long war on Iran. US provided arms/intelligence. Germany and France provided deadly chemical/biological weapons to Iraq. Here’s Donald Rumsfeld with Saddam in 1983.

Of course, the same Rumsfeld would bomb Iraq and kill Saddam twenty years later.

Thus, the Petrodollar deal with Saudi Arabia could be called as Bretton Woods II. It extended the life of the American Empire by a few more decades.

Bretton Woods III -

For the last four decades, countries around the world have been foolishly working hard for US dollars, buying US treasuries, and funding the American Empire. But within the next decade, those U.S. treasury bills and bonds might be worthless. Deja vu all over again.

The U.S. needs Bretton Woods, Version 3. Somehow, the world needs to write off all American debt and start the racket anew. But … with America still as #1 How the hell could this happen?? This is how:

If the world is full of weak countries, they will accept the new rules -- just like they did in 1944 and 1974. Imagine a world where Russia and Europe destroy one another. Imagine a world where Japan and India attack China … and they all get destroyed. A world on fire, destroyed by passion and bombs.

In that world, America will come in as the savior at the last moment, stop the war, and make everyone a happy vassal.

Great Reset. Bretton Woods III. New World Order. Call it what you will.

Conclusion

The wheels are in motion. After eight years of provocation, the US successfully forced Russia to invade Ukraine. And the US also brilliantly pulled Europe into the mess. Europe's economy is being crushed and de-industrialized.

As for China, the U.S. is trying its best to start a war using Taiwan as the pawn. Japan is being asked to re-militarize and procure 1000 long-range missiles. The US needs a few more years to manufacture this mother of all wars. A lot depends on India, since Japan wouldn't want to be the only Asian country to attack China.

Four years ago, I predicted all this in the article "The Most Dangerous Decade." However, much of the world is still happy to be mesmerized and led into the slaughterhouse.

Only Russia and China can change how this story evolves. If Putin can quickly and decisively win the Ukraine war, he can force a peace settlement with Europe.

And China needs to accelerate the internationalization of Yuan. There is no de-dollarization without a robust alternative financial system. China also needs to muster the greatest diplomatic efforts to make peace with Japan and India, the two most potent adversaries and puppets of the US.

In the most optimistic scenario, the Global South or the people of the developing nations can bring into fruition a new fair world without catastrophic wars or financial devastation. As Sun Tzu said, "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."

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Financial literacy and bankruptcy

Stretching your ringgit: The importance of knowledge in this space cannot be more timely, especially when Malaysians are doing their level best to stretch their ringgit in order to cope with the increasing cost of living from inflationary pressures, which are spiralling out of control.

It is not enough to be good at your job. Managing your money well is as important as having good hygiene.

Lack of financial discipline reasons for bankruptcy

Using a credit card or apps wisely to accumulate points for future spending, waiting for bargains such as free shipping options or vouchers on ecommerce platforms on special days of the months to purchase necessities are just a few examples of being financially aware.

FINANCIAL literacy is an important agenda for a country’s economic well-being.

Most governments around the world would like for their citizens to be financially literate, be it entrepreneurs, working professionals, white collar or blue collar workers.

It is not enough to be good at your job. Managing your money well is as important as having good hygiene.

Recently, the Malaysia Department of Insolvency (MDI) reported that 287,411 people in the country have been declared bankrupt as of March 2022.

Between 2018 and May 2022, there was an increase of 46,132 new bankruptcy cases.

Of this number, 59% (amounting to 27,365) of the bankrupt were aged below 44.

This led to the Prime Minister highlighting his concern on youth bankruptcy and requesting for the relevant authorities to look into this matter including potentially revamping the laws on insolvency.

It is important to note that due to the pandemic, our government has in fact raised the threshold of bankruptcy from RM50,000 to RM100,000 in 2020.

Many legal actions against defaulters of loans were also postponed due to the effects of the pandemic.

Personal loan main reason for default

Diving into the MDI’S statistics, I realised that the main reason for bankruptcy was due to default of personal loans with an overwhelming percentage at 42%, followed by hire-purchase loans (15%) and business loans (13.5%).

Personal loans have often been touted to charge exorbitant interest rates, especially credit card schemes.

A simple illustration: when month end comes, there are often three options to settle your credit card bill, namely statement balance, outstanding sum or minimum sum.

The right thing to do would be to settle the statement balance. Settling the outstanding sum in full means that the credit card user is paying down the credit card debts which isn’t yet due, which defy the purpose of utilising credit card in the first place.

Paying only the minimum sum, which many people often do, would lead to one incurring high interest on the outstanding credit card debt.

This would snowball to levels which are highly exorbitant.

The statistics above is telling because it shows that excess consumption pattern is a key reason for bankruptcy.

In terms of youth bankruptcy, it makes sense especially with social media propagating binge spending, splurging on luxury goods and the shallow mindset of keeping up with the Joneses.

Living beyond one’s means owing to social pressure simply isn’t going to go out of fashion, more so in today’s digital age.

Proliferation of get-rich-quick schemes and scams

There is no doubt the lack of financial discipline and bad spending habits are reasons which contribute to this social issue.

However, I believe another major contributing factor is the increasing number of scams and get-rich-quick schemes. These schemes often tap on the most vulnerable segment of the society, namely those who are greedy, desperate or naive.

Greed is one of human nature’s biggest weaknesses. Despite the evolution of mankind, this primal instinct has continued to flow through the DNA of mankind. I do not doubt the importance of greed as a driver for progress, but too much and it becomes fatal.

Desperation, especially in the case of hardcore poverty or extreme emergency without anyone to rely on, there is hardly any choice to seek help.

We have seen this episode played out, especially in the times of economic recession, high unemployment not unlike the period of pandemic we have all been through recently.

Of the three, the most addressable would be the one who is naive, in short, one who lacks the necessary knowledge.
Stretching your ringgit

The importance of knowledge in this space cannot be more timely, especially when Malaysians are doing their level best to stretch their ringgit in order to cope with the increasing cost of living from inflationary pressures, which are spiralling out of control.

I would like to put it on record: Accumulating financial knowledge does not mean becoming an investment prodigy. It can be as simple as understanding the various options for people to stretch their money.

One of the most common savings hacks would be to channel your monthly salary to a “flexi” or “semi-flexi” home loan account. This simple gesture every month automatically lowers the interest on the loan to be incurred.

Your unused funds will be utilised to further reduce the principal and interest while you have the option to withdraw the excess amount if you require to use the funds.

Of course, the best thing to do is to be prudent in spending, in essence practicing delayed gratification at all times.

The best investment is knowledge

It is a good sign that there is an increasing number of licensed financial professionals such as Chartered Financial Analysts and Certified Financial Planners out there today.

We also do see many more collaborative efforts between industry professionals working hand in hand with regulators in adopting social media to reach out to the masses.

With the advent of social media, it is also crucial to sift out genuine financial literacy advocates. After all, there are many free resources online today.

It is not to say the smartest people from the top of their professions cannot be hoodwinked. We have seen how 34-year-old Ng Yu Zhi of Envy Asset Management and Envy Global Trading swindled prominent people like the general counsel for Temasek Holdings Pek Siok Lan, criminal lawyer Sunil Sudheesan, ex-president of the Law Society Thio Shen Yi, chairman of Vickers Capital Group Finian Tan and CEO of Chuan Hup Holdings Terence Peh, among others.

This purported nickel trading scheme amounting to S$1bil (Rm3.2bil) was the largest fraud or Ponzi scheme in Singapore’s history. The best part, red flags were obvious where both of the perpetrator’s entities above were not licensed by Monetary Authority Singapore and he was promising 15% returns in three months to his clients.

Ultimately, it comes down to the individual and a good sense of financial awareness when managing one’s own hard-earned money.

The best investment is in yourself. Whether it is learning a new skill or advancing your education, self enrichment gives the best return on investment.

As Benjamin Franklin once said, “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest”. He can’t be wrong considering his face is literally on the US dollar bill even till today. - StarBiz,

Ng Zhu Hann, the CEO of Tradeview Capital. He is also a lawyer and the author of “Once Upon A Time In Bursa”. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.