WHO's Alarm Bells: Antibiotic Resistance Now a 'Major Threat to Public Health'

The world's leading health organization is sounding serious alarm bells about the problem of antibiotic resistance.

In its first report on the issue ever, the World Health Organization (WHO) is sounding alarms about the issue of antibiotic resistance and the global public health threats it poses to our increasingly interconnected world.

"The problem is so serious that it threatens the achievements of modern medicine. A post-antibiotic era—in which common infections and minor injuries can kill—is a very real possibility for the 21st century," the report states.

Antibiotic resistance occurs when bacteria no longer die when treated with antibiotics. As a result, doctors have to use stronger, more potent antibiotics, and the more those are used, the more resistance bacteria develop to those as well. The WHO is warning that we're reaching a point in which the strongest antibiotics doctors have in their arsenal, the "treatment of last resort" drugs as they're called, no longer work.

And in fact, it's no longer just bacteria that are becoming resistant. The WHO has stopped referring to the problem as "antibiotic resistance" and now calls it "antimicrobial resistance," to encompass other organisms, such as viruses and parasites, that no longer respond to the drugs of choice. Namely, treating the viruses tuberculosis and HIV, and malaria (a parasite), has become harder as these diseases become resistant to medications. Even H1N1, the so-called "swine flu" that reached pandemic levels in 2009, has begun developing resistance to potent antiviral drugs.

Resistance Is a Worldwide Problem

One of the major points of the report is that diseases that used to be restricted to certain locales are now spreading internationally:

Among their key findings:
• Resistance to the treatment of last resort for life-threatening infections caused by a common intestinal bacteria, Klebsiella pneumonia—carbapenem antibiotics—has spread to all regions of the world. K. pneumoniae is a major cause of hospital-acquired infections such as pneumonia, bloodstream infections, infections in newborns and intensive-care unit patients. In some countries, because of resistance, carbapenem antibiotics would not work in more than half of people treated for K. pneumoniae infections.

• Treatment failure to the last resort of treatment for gonorrhea—third generation cephalosporins—has been confirmed in Austria, Australia, Canada, France, Japan, Norway, Slovenia, South Africa, Sweden and the United Kingdom. More than 1 million people are infected with gonorrhoea around the world every day.

• People with MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) are estimated to be 64 percent more likely to die than people with a non-resistant form of the infection. MRSA, which can cause septic bloodstream infections when exposed to broken skin, is one of the most common "community-acquired" resistant infections, meaning you're likely to pick it up anywhere other people are—your gym, place of worship, a nearby park or even at schools. In the Americas, as many as 90 percent of staph infections are reported to be MRSA.

• There hasn't been a new class of antibiotics developed since the late 1980s.

We Can't Track What We Don't Know

The WHO is calling on countries all over the world to step up their surveillance of these deadly infections, something that happens rarely, if at all. An investigative report, "Hunting the Nightmare Bacteria," that ran on the PBS program Frontline in October 2013 revealed that public health officials in the U.S. have little to no data on the extent of antimicrobial resistance in this country. Healthcare facilities aren't required to report outbreaks, the report found, and many don't because they don't want to scare people or have to deal with bad PR.

“It is frankly embarrassing that we as a country do not know where resistance is occurring, how bad the problem is for various organisms or who’s using what antibiotics when,” Brad Spellberg, MD, an infectious disease doctor at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, said in the documentary.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated that antimicrobial resistant infections hit two million people a year and kill at least 23,000. But the WHO notes that in most countries around the world, including the U.S., often only the most severe infections are documented and minor community-acquired infections (which can get passed along repeatedly and wind up as a severe infection) go unreported.

Clean Up the Food Supply!

For quite possibly the first time, the WHO also called out the food industry for its contribution to antimicrobial resistance. " The use of antibiotics in animal husbandry—including in livestock, poultry and fish farming—are leading to increasing recognition that urgent action is needed to avoid inappropriate use, and to reduce antibiotic usage in animal husbandry and aquaculture, as well as in humans," the report states. In the U.S., 80 percent of antibiotics sold go into animal feed to prevent infections in healthy animals or to speed growth. And we're not alone. "In many countries, the total amount of antibiotics used in animals (both food-producing and companion animals), measured as gross weight, exceeds the quantity used in the treatment of disease in humans," the authors found.

The same classes of antibiotics used on these animals are the same as those given to humans. In particular, fluoroquinolones, antibiotics used widely in the poultry industry, are increasingly ineffective against urinary tract infections caused by drug-resistant E. coli bacteria, which have been detected on all forms of supermarket meat, and against MRSA soft-tissue and skin infections.

Numerous groups in the U.S. have sued the Food and Drug Administration to revoke its approvals in animals for antibiotics that are valuable for humans. The agency's only response has been to set voluntary guidelines for the industry.

What You Can Do

Despite the damage factory farming has done to antibiotic effectiveness, the WHO and other public health officials insist that the first line of defense in controlling the problem of antimicrobial resistance is the healthcare setting: Stopping doctors from giving patients antibiotics for conditions they aren't designed to treat, for instance, when you're given antibiotics for a cold that's caused by a virus, not bacteria.

• Don't automatically ask for antibiotics when you feel sick and visit a doctor.

• If your doctor prescribes an antibiotic, ask if there's an alternative before just accepting the advice. Some doctors feel compelled to offer the drugs to make people feel better, but asking for an alternative can open up a dialogue about other options.

• When you do need an antibiotic, take the full course, even if you're feeling better.

• Wash your hands frequently to protect yourself from community-acquired infections, and keep your hands away from your nose, eyes and mouth, where infections can enter.

Contributed by  By EMILY MAIN

 


Alarm bells over antibiotic resistance 

The World Health Organisation’s most comprehensive report to date sounds a warning that we are entering a world where antibiotics have little effect.

THE World Health Organisation (WHO) has sounded a warning that many types of disease-causing bacteria can no longer be treated with the usual antibiotics and the benefits of modern medicine are increasingly being eroded.

The comprehensive 232-page report on anti-microbial resistance with data from 114 countries shows how this threat is happening now in every region of the world and can affect anyone in any country.

Antibiotic resistance – when bacteria evolve so that antibiotics no longer work to treat infections – is described by the report as “a problem so serious that it threatens the achievements of modern medicine”.

“A post-antibiotic era, in which common infections and minor injuries can kill, far from being an apocalyptic fantasy, is instead a very real possibility for the 21st century,” said Dr Keiji Fukuda, WHO assistant director-general who coordinates its work on anti-microbial resistance.

“Without urgent, coordinated action, the world is headed for a post-antibiotic era in which common infections and minor injuries which have been treatable for decades can once again kill.

“Effective antibiotics have been one of the pillars allowing us to live longer, live healthier, and benefit from modern medicine.

“Unless we take significant actions to improve efforts to prevent infections and also change how we produce, prescribe and use antibiotics, the world will lose more and more of these global public health goods and the implications will be devastating.”

The report, “Antimicrobial Resistance: Global Report on Surveillance”, shows that resistance is occurring in many bacteria causing different infections.

It focuses on antibiotic resistance in seven bacteria responsible for common, serious diseases, such as bloodstream infections (sepsis), diarrhoea, pneumonia, urinary tract infections and gonorrhoea.

What is especially alarming is that the bacteria’s resistance has also breached “last resort” antibiotics, which are the most powerful medicines that doctors resort to when the usual ones do not work.

When patients do not respond to the usual medicines (known as first-line or first-generation medicines), doctors prescribe newer (second line medicines) which also usually also cost more.

When these also don’t work, newer and often more powerful (but sometimes with also more side effects) antibiotics are used, and they are even more expensive.

If these third-line or “last resort” medicines are not available or too costly for the patient, or if they don’t work on a patient because of antibiotic resistance, the patient remains ill or dies if the infection is a serious one.

New antibiotics have been discovered in the past to treat infections when the old ones became useless due to resistance.

But these discoveries dried up in the past 25 years.

The last completely new classes of anti-bacterial drugs were discovered in the 1980s.

Pathogens that are becoming increasingly resistant including to the more powerful antibiotics include E. coli, K. pneumonia, S. aureus, S. pneumonia, salmonelia, shigella and n. gonorrhoeae.

Key findings from the report include:

> Resistance to the treatment of last resort for life-threatening infections caused by a common intestinal bacteria, K. pneumonia — carbapenem antibiotics — has spread worldwide.

K. pneumoniae is a major cause of hospital-acquired infections such as pneumonia, bloodstream infections, infections in newborns and intensive-care unit patients.

In some countries, because of resistance, carbapenem antibiotics would not work in more than half of people treated for K. pneumoniae infections;

> Resistance to one of the most widely used antibacterial medicines for the treatment of urinary tract infections caused by E. coli – fluoroquinolones – is very widespread.

In the 1980s, when these drugs were first introduced, resistance was virtually zero.

In many countries today, this treatment is ineffective in more than half of patients;

> The sexually transmitted disease, gonorrhoea may soon be untreatable unless there are new drugs. Treatment failure to the last resort of treatment for gonorrhoea – third generation cephalosporins – has been confirmed in several countries; and

> Antibiotic resistance causes people to be sick for longer and increases the risk of death.

For example, people with MRSA (methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) are estimated to be 64% more likely to die than people with a non-resistant form of the infection.

There are many cases of patients being infected by MRSA in hospitals.

The report also gives useful information on the worrisome building up of resistance in four serious diseases — tuberculosis, malaria, HIV and influenza.

A major factor accelerating resistance is in the animal husbandry sector, where there is a liberal use of antibiotics mainly to promote the growth of the animals used for food, for commercial purposes.

This builds up resistance in the bacteria present in the animals.

These resistant germs are passed on to humans who consume the meat.

The report has a small section on the animal-food chain, which has been identified as a major problem.

The European Union has banned the use of antibiotics as growth promoters in animals, but it is still allowed in other countries.

A WHO press release on the report calls for some actions. These include:

> Setting up basic systems in countries to track and monitor the problem;

> Preventing infections from happening in the first place to reduce the need for antibiotics;

> Only prescribing and dispensing antibiotics when they are truly needed, and prescribing and dispensing the right antibiotic(s) to treat the illness;

> Patients using antibiotics only when prescribed by a doctor and completing the full prescription; and

> Developing new diagnostics, antibiotics and other tools to stay ahead of emerging resistance.

Contributed by Global Trends by Martin Khor

Martin Khor is executive director of the South Centre, a research centre of 51 developing countries, based in Geneva. You can e-mail him at director@southcentre.org. The views expressed are entirely his own.

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Erosion of confidence: US avoided a debt default, debt ceiling shifted to next year

It happened again last week – at the last minute the United States avoided debt default. But the world is losing patience with this latest episode of dysfunctional leadership.

THE world waited with bated breath as the deadline neared. And breathed a sigh of relief when at the last minute, the United States avoided crossing its “debt ceiling” and a default on its debts.

The debt ceiling was raised, and the government shutdown also ended last Thursday after weeks of a high-profile standoff between US President Barrack Obama and the Republicans in Congress.

But this relief was mixed with incredulity and frustration.

First, the respite is only temporary; the can is just kicked down the road.

The deadlines for government shutdown and debt ceiling are shifted some weeks away to January and February next year.

Second, this fiasco has happened several times already.

Each time the Congress gave the President a reprieve of just a few more months, before the new deadline loomed again.

The Republicans are adamant to cut the government’s spending and its budget deficit and won’t allow the government to function unless they get what they want.

Previously, Obama compromised and gave in significantly.This time, he stood firm and refused to negotiate.

The Republicans went too far, choosing to defund and damage his landmark medical insurance reform as a condition for lifting the debt ceiling.

Obama decided “enough is enough” and relied on public opinion to win his gamble. The Republican Party blinked, as the public heaped the blame on them.

The party leaders in Congress had to eat humble pie and agree to stop the shutdown and lift the debt ceiling without defunding or changing the “Obamacare” health reform.

But thirdly, while the President finally showed the Republicans who was boss, the damage had already been done to the United States’ image as a superpower and the champion of American-style democracy.

The US system of governance has become dysfunctional, with one side of the political divide willing and able to paralyse the government functions led by the other side, using the weapon of withholding approval of the government’s budget and capacity to borrow.

Just days before the deadline, the world’s finance ministers meeting at the annual IMF-World Bank meeting in Washington highlighted the extreme dangers of a US debt default.

Around the world, leaders and analysts mourned the end of the past certainties surrounding the United States and its dollar as the world’s financial leader.

A widely-quoted article in China’s Xinhua news agency was titled: “Washington’s political chaos proves it’s time for a de-Americanised world.”

The commentator, Liu Chang, said the latest crisis reveals that the United States is unfit to govern itself, let alone lord it over the rest of us.

“It is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanised world.”

After castigating the United States for meddling in the political affairs of countries in its efforts in building a world empire, the writer attacks a self-serving Washington for shifting financial risks overseas, while the debt ceiling crisis “has again left many nations’ tremendous dollar assets in jeopardy and the international community highly agonised”.

“Such alarming days when the destinies of others are in the hands of a hypocritical nation have to be terminated, and a new world order should be put in place, according to which all nations, big or small, poor or rich, can have their key interests respected and protected on an equal footing.

“Part of that reform is the introduction of a new international reserve currency that is to be created to replace the dominant US dollar, so that the international community could permanently stay away from the spillover of the intensifying domestic political turmoil in the United States.”

As the Xinhua opinion piece indicated, many countries are concerned about the US dollar being the world’s dominant currency. It is by far the most important reserve currency.

Countries holding US dollar treasury bills have been worried about the once unthinkable, that the US would be unable to honour its debt service obligations, thus putting their hard-earned assets in jeopardy.

On the other hand, countries that took loans denominated in US dollars could face punishing terms of repayment if the interest rate on the US dollar shoots up upon fears of a US debt default.

Companies, traders and governments that use the US dollar as the medium of exchange would also suffer from chaos in the markets for money, commodities and trade, if there is a massive loss of confidence in the US and its dollar.

Thus, continuing uncertainty arising from feuds in Washington will accelerate the erosion of confidence in the US as world economic leader.

The Financial Times columinist Martin Wolf commented that the US debt ceiling is the legislative equivalent of a nuclear bomb, and that the law needs to be repealed since there cannot be orderly government under so destructive a threat.

But another editorial comment in The Independent states that while there is a straightforward case to ditch the debt ceiling law, the same extremists who use it as a weapon of mass destruction will be loath to part with it.

In the past few days, some Democrat and Republican leaders in charge of budget policy in Congress have started meeting, giving hope they plan to avoid a repeat of the fiasco when the budget and debt ceiling deadlines re-appear in a few months.

But given the polarisation and ideological divides in Washington, chances are that the world will be treated to another round of the battle and the chaos. If that happens, there will be more calls for a new world order.

Contributed by Global Trends by Martin Khor
> The views expressed are entirely the writer’s own.

Related posts:
1. A de-Americanized world needed !  
2. Winds of change blowing in Asia 

Winds of change blowing in Asia

The APEC and TPPA summits in Bali recently showed the winds of change are blowing in the region, symbolised by the US President’s absence but also reflecting the aptness or otherwise of policies.

THE winds of change are blowing, bringing shifts in perceived wisdom and the old order, especially in the Asian region.

The recent APEC summit and associated meetings in Bali were marked not so much by results but by perceptions.

In fact, the lack of results, rather than results, was the main story. This lack was not so much in the APEC itself, but in the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA).

The leaders of TPPA countries met in a separate venue away from the APEC summit. The Indonesians were the host of APEC and not the TPPA, which they are not involved in, and were unhappy that the TPPA threatened to take away the limelight from the main event.

But that was the secondary story. The main news was that United States President Barrack Obama had to give a miss not only to his scheduled visits to Malaysia and Indonesia, but to the APEC summit itself.

This was damaging to the United States, symbolically and in practical terms. Obama could not be blamed personally, as everyone knows the problems he faces at home with the onset of the “government shutdown” and the looming debt-ceiling crisis.

The problem was deeper. Obama’s absence confirmed the already growing perception in the region and the world that there is a dysfunctional governance system in the United States, at least for the moment, and it is becoming a long moment.

Sympathy outside the United States lies with the President, a sympathy tinged with pity for a legitimate leader confronted with the fringe (but a powerful fringe) of the opposition party that refuses to accept his healthcare reform bill that has come into law, and which is willing to damage the operations of the administration and apparently even the country’s financial creditworthiness to achieve its ideological objective.

Every democratic country has its moments of clashes between governing and opposition parties, and sometimes it can paralyse the country until the crisis is resolved, one way or other.

But here we are talking about the United States, the world’s most powerful country, and the greatest advocate of democracy. What happens in the United States has ramifications for the rest of the world.

Suddenly the unthinkable becomes a reality – the partial government shutdown – and a possibility: a default on loans, with disastrous effects on the world economy.

The crisis emerging from the present configuration of the division of powers between executive and legislative wings of government – a major pillar of Western democracy – calls into question how stable that system really is and what can be done if the paralysis lasts more than just a passing moment.

The lack of clear results in the TPPA leaders’ meeting in Bali is partly attributed to the absence of Obama, since the President had been assigned the role of galvanising the other leaders to meet the aim of concluding the talks by year-end.

In the end the leaders’ statement merely said the negotiations are on track, but did not mention they would finish by December. The growing perceptions is that the TPPA talks are facing turbulence.

Obama’s absence cannot really be blamed for that. Instead, the TPPA meetings of ministers and then political leaders only confirmed what has been known in recent months, that the TPPA agenda has been overloaded with too many issues and by too many demands, especially by the United States, that are too extreme for other countries to simply accept.

According to reports, most of the TPPA countries cannot agree to the US demands on intellectual property that go far beyond the WTO rules.

Several countries have problems with various other issues, including environment, investment and competition.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak was the most outspoken. At an APEC side event, he said the TPPA’s year-end timeline is not cast in stone and asked that more flexibilities be given to countries.

“We do have a few areas of great concern,” he said, adding: “As you go into areas of intellectual property , investor-state dispute settlement, government procurement, state-owned enterprises, environment and labour, you impinge on fundamentally the sovereign right of the country to make regulation and policy. That is a tricky part and that is why we ask for flexibility.”

These comments by the Prime Minister summarise succinctly the “agenda overload” problem in the TPPA negotiations.

The areas that are trumpeted by the United States as a set of 21st century issues that make the TPPA a trail-blazer may turn out not to be so first-class after all.

Instead, they make some politicians, officials and parliamentarians uncomfortable, and many public-interest NGOs and business representatives, very unhappy.

The APEC summit and the TPPA meetings in the sidelines gave the big perception that US leadership is in question if not in decline in the region and the big talk was the corresponding rise of China, whose President’s presence and performance was the reverse mirror image of Obama’s absence.

But it is not only the contrasts in relative presence and economic and political power that counts. In the end it is also the content of policies advocated and the willingness to be genuine partners, and not to make use of new pacts and treaties to benefit one’s own country or interests, at the expense of others.

Contributed by Global Trends Martin Khor
> The views expressed are entirely the writer’s own.

Related posts:
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2. China's assertiveness, confidence and trust, long history together with Asean 

3. US and China tussle for trade dominance at Apec summit  
4. An eventful week on the TPPA
5. TPP affecting health policies?

An eventful week on the TPPA

Last week saw a series of important events on the hot topic of Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, with the official round in Brunei and a round table in Kuala Lumpur, leading to the question: What next?

LAST week saw many important developments on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA).

The 19th round of the negotiations concluded in Brunei after an intense week. It emerged that many issues are still controversial and that the target of signing the treaty by year end cannot be met.

Malaysia’s tone at the negotiations has also changed, with Inter-national Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed informing his counter parts of the domestic opposition to the TPPA and various issues which Malaysia has problems with.

Malaysia’s negotiators earned bouquets from NGOs for tabling a new proposal that tobacco control measures should be excluded altogether from TPPA disciplines.

Meanwhile in Kuala Lumpur, a roundtable workshop on the TPPA brought together 200 people. Keynote speaker Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad reaffirmed his opposition to the TPPA and urged the Government not to join it.

The Aug 26-27 round table was organised by the MTEM (Malay Economic Action Council) and the Perdana Leadership Foundation.

The participants came up with 75 “red lines”, or positions that are non-negotiatble, that they would like the Government to adopt.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak received the “red lines” document from the MTEM leadership at the group’s Hari Raya open house on Aug 28.

Mustapa also announced that the Government was going ahead with organising two cost benefit studies on the TPPA’s impacts on national interests and on SMEs and the bumiputra economy. Only if there are net benefits will the country sign the treaty.

It looks like the strong views voiced by various groups and politicians have influenced the Government’s thinking.

A strong sign of this was at the ministerial meeting of TPPA countries in Brunei on Aug 22-23. Chaired by the American Trade Represen-tative, the meeting was supposed to give ministers the chance to clear the contentious issues that the technical negotiators could not settle, and thus pave the way to a quick conclusion.

Instead, the ministerial meeting turned into an anti-climax as some ministers did not attend, and some others who attended did not stay for the press conference that lasted only 20 minutes.

And instead of clearing hard issues, the ministerial meeting gave a chance to some ministers to highlight contentious issues themselves.

Mustapa was one of those who took that opportunity. “I drew attention to the growing discomfort domestically arising from Malaysia’s participation in the TPP negotiations, the outreach activities that had been undertaken and the concerns raised by the various stakeholders, specifically on the issue of lack of transparency and disclosure of information on the texts being negotiated,” said the minister in a statement.

He also highlighted the difficulties Malaysia has on government procurement, the need for exclusions of SMEs and preferences for bumiputra which are required for the Malaysian government to continue with its socio-economic development goals and affirmative action policy.

He also underscored that Malaysia had serious difficulties with the current proposal on state-owned enterprises, which is seen to go beyond the stated objective of creating a level playing field as it had serious implications for Malaysian SOEs.

And on intellectual property, he reiterated Malaysia’s strong position on access to affordable medicines while on environment, that there was a need to safeguard the state governments’ jurisdictions.

The following day, Malaysia also caused quite a stir by putting forward a new proposal to totally exclude tobacco control measures from the disciplines of the whole TPPA.

This was warmly welcomed by public health groups, which then called on the US and other countries to agree to the Malaysian position.

At the MTEM round table in Kuala Lumpur, Dr Mahathir gave a 40-minute critique of the TPPA, the problems it would create for domestic policy and why Malaysia can expand its trade even without such agreements. He ended with a strong call to the Government not to sign the treaty.

For two days, the participants discussed specific TPPA issues in six breakout groups and at the closing plenary they adopted 75 “red lines” which they called on the Government to take on as part of its negotiating positions.

The “red lines” include a rejection of the investor-state dispute settlement system, the exclusion of the chapters or sections on government procurement and state-owned enterprises, and demands that the intellectual property chapter does not require obligations that are stronger than the World Trade Organisation’s rules, especially with regard to patents and medicines, and copyright issues.

It should be noted that some of these civil society “red lines” correspond to the concerns that Mustapa had taken up at the TPPA ministerial meeting.

It looks as though the Govern-ment’s position has been affected by the voices of civil society, business and experts.

A key question, of course, is whether in taking up these issues, the minister and the negotiators will make their own “red lines” out of the concerns.

The next question is whether the other TPPA participants will accommodate themselves to Malaysia’s positions. And if not, then what happens next.

In any case, it has been a very interesting week or 10 days, full of events and developments, on the hot issue of TPPA, both at the official meeting and on the home front.

  Contributed by Martin Khor Global Trends:

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TPP affecting health policies?
Looming danger on contrast and competition on economic models
ASEAN plans world's largest trading bloc in Asia RCEP, and the US Secrecy in TPP

Views by market research analysts, would the Snake bite 2013?

The 12-year zodiac has turned from the last year dragon to Snake 2013. Would the snake bite as the snake's reputation might be? Remember 2001 was the year of the 9/11!

Welcome to Year of the Water Snake! Snake is the Yin to last year's Dragon Yang. That said, Snake does not settle for mediocrity, either. We're likely to see significant developments in the area of science and technology this year. Research and development are apt to flourish. This is a Water year as well, the element most closely associated with education and research, making 2013 a very special year for scientists and scholars. Snake is a great sign, a positive one, with energy that can help us face all of the challenges ahead of us. Let's take advantage of this vibrant influence to improve our lives -- and our world!

THE world markets have always been a subject of focus whenever a brand new year comes a-calling.

Will they perform well or are investors in for a tough time?

As usual, while some have looked to the study of feng shui to predict how markets will perform and react in this Year of the Water Snake, a few analysts and fund managers have mostly chosen to stick to regular facts and figures when giving their opinions.

Here are the views of some of them randomly selected by StarBizWeek.
VINCENT KHOO
Head of research
UOBKayHian Research

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

For fundamental research, we do not take feng shui into consideration

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

The over-riding investment theme for the year's market is laggards. Market laggards dominate our “buy” list.

We also advocate three categories of stocks to focus on for timing purposes. These are stocks which are immediate “buys” such as high-yielding stocks including number forecast operators and construction stocks, noting that positive newsflows are already emerging, stocks to accumulate on slight weakness such as telecommunication stocks, and stocks to accumulate on deeper retreats, such as the perceived politically-linked stocks which feature exciting growth prospects

Our contrarian view includes being overweight on construction stocks.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

The local market has predictably fallen after a short year-start rally. We expect a significant retreat in small-mid caps after an impressive January-Effect' rally. We also expect market to dip further before elections, but downside is limited, and it should recover significantly thereafter.

THOMAS YONG
Chief executive officer
Fortress Capital Asset Management (M) Sdn Bhd

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

We don't use feng shui in our work.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

In Malaysia, our top picks are UMW Holdings Bhd and CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. Despite a return of 70% in the year of 2012, we think that the prospects for UMW continue to remain bright.

The automotive division has been performing well as its Toyota brand continues to gain market share, while the Perodua brand dominates the budget segment.

Earnings contribution from the oil and gas division has improved vastly and the earnings momentum is likely to pick up in coming years, buoyed by the potential of raising funds via an initial public offering.

In the near-term, weakening of the US dollar and Japanese yen arising from quantitative easing would also be favourable to UMW Holdings.

CIMB Holdings has been delivering consistent earnings but its share price has under-performed the market, due to political concerns in Malaysia.

The group actually derives about 40% of earnings outside Malaysia and the overseas earnings contribution is expected to increase further with the strategic regional expansion.

Besides positive enhancement of the CIMB brand, its recent acquisition of Royal Bank of Scotland investment banking operations has also provided CIMB Group with an established platform to compete internationally.

Notwithstanding the solid fundamentals of the two stocks, one need to be cautious in determining the entry level for the stocks in light of the recent market volatility on the back of election politics.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

As the US and Japan are expected to continue with quantitative easing, we expect interest rates to stay low for the year 2013, stoking asset inflation.

While alternative investment such as property has traditionally proven to be a good asset inflation play, the sector will likely face continued policy curbs.

Taken with sight of economy recovery led by China and the United States, we believe equity as an asset class provides a very attractive risk return potential.

HWANGDBS VICKERS RESEARCH
MALAYSIAN RESEARCH TEAM

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

Feng shui is just an additional tool used to make certain predictions.

Our bread-and-butter research approach has always been fundamental analysis supported by technical analysis.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

Against a turbulent market backdrop, the benchmark FBM KLCI could swing between 1,500 and 1,750 going forward, and probably settle at our fundamentally-driven end-2013 target of 1,690 (based on one-year forward P/E of 14 times.

Hence, investors should view any market dips as buying opportunities to ride on the subsequent recoveries.

The Year of the Snake may bring good luck to industries linked to earth, metal and water elements, such as property, construction, petroleum and banking.

By being defensive, investors are expected to flock to sectors or stocks that generate strong operating cash flows and pay appealing dividend yields such as Pos Malaysia, Maybank and KLCC Property, to name a few.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

On the global economic front, we should see continuous gradual recovery supported by an underlying positive mood.

The recurrence of an economic fallout in the United States or a financial blow out in eurozone can happen, which can then force a downward spiral in investors' confidence.

KALADHER GOVINDAN
TA Securities
Head of research

Do you believe in using fengshui beliefs to predict market movements?

I wish predicting market behaviour could be that easy. Feng shui or even the much older Indian version, Vastu, for that matter gives you a “common sense” perspective on how certain things should be done in harmony with nature to reap the maximum benefits for health and well being but it is not a single criterion that binds everything for success or wealth.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

Sell-on-strength, especially overvalued defensive plays in the consumer, healthcare and telco sectors, and turn cash-heavy to accumulate high beta plays in domestic sectors, which are mainly related to construction, oil and gas and property sectors, in the first half of 20 13. The banking sector holds good buys based on their attractive valuation, still robust loan growth and bright chances of benefiting from ongoing domestic expansion .

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

Issues in Europe will last longer. The structural flaws cannot be undone overnight but expect bouts of positive improvements to kick in the second half of 2 013 as fats are trimmed and jobs created. China could revive its domestic growth without stoking inflationary pressure but it can be a destabilising factor if its row with Japan escalates. The same applies to Iran and the West.

LIM TECK SENG
Deputy managing director
JF Apex Securities Bhd

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

Not at all.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

I prefer good value penny stocks because the capital appreciation of these stocks are much faster and larger, compared to bigger-cap stocks. Stocks are all about packaging, style and branding.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

Financial markets revolve around banking, wealth management and the economy.

It has nothing much to do with stock markets. The stock market is all about liquidity and cashflow.

If there is enough liquidity, cashflow and interest in the stock, the stock will run. Liquidity is the most crucial component to the stock market.

EDMUND THAM
Head of Research
Mercury Securities

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

Some people may use it, but I personally do not use feng shui to predict the market.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

Currently I'm looking at property and crude palm oil (CPO) stocks, for both value and dividend yield.

The prices of quite a number of them have come down recently. However, they have the potential to “come back” later in the year. CPO stocks would probably only come back later in the year if and when CPO prices recover.

Property players with projects in prime areas locally (Penang island, Klang Valley, Iskandar Region) and overseas stand to perform well.

CPO picks - IOI Corp Bhd, TDM Bhd, TH Plantations Bhd, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd.
Property picks - Glomac Bhd, Mah Sing Group Bhd, SP Setia Bhd, UOA Development Bhd.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

For the local market, less volatility could lead to a higher KLCI level, especially in the first half of 2013.

The cautious investor sentiment due to GE13 is likely to suppress market participation for Q1 and maybe Q2.

The Dow Jones is at quite a lofty level, and we're not sure if it can be sustained above the 14,000 points level.

By YVONNE TAN yvonne@thestar.com.my 

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The new year 2013 will continue with the trends of of the passing year

The new year will start with two economic crisis events in the United States but otherwise, we can expect 2013 to continue with the trends of the passing year. 

IF 2012 is the year that did not bring about the end of the world, then 2013 should be the beginning of a new era, according to the Mayan prophecy.

But it is unlikely the new year will herald a brand new age for the world as a whole.

More probably, it will continue the trends in the old year but in more pronounced and deeply felt ways.

The year 2013 starts with the United States falling off the “fiscal cliff” or else escaping from that at the last moment.

If the fiscal cliff takes effect fully, up to four percentage points of GNP are expected to be sucked out of the US economy due to tax increases and government spending cuts combined, thus resulting in a new recession.

Another problem will soon reach crisis point.

The US government debt will reach its mandated limit around now, and President Barack Obama and Congress will have one to two months to negotiate an increase in that limit before the administration runs out of money to pay for its operations or service its debts.

Thus, we can expect the first two months of 2013 to be preoccupied with the drama of the US politics on debt, taxes and government spending.

It seems that the President-Congress and Democrat-Repub­li­can bitter battles of the last few years will return at the start of Obama’s second term.

If so, the United States’ political paralysis will be reflected in economic policy deadlocks.

The economic crises in the United States, and how they play out, will have a big impact on 2013 worldwide, especially since Europe is already in the midst of a recession.

With the uncertainties in the major developed economies, and the softening of the economies of China, India, Brazil, most developing countries will face economic difficulties this year but the extent of this is to be seen.

On the political front, the ongoing economic turmoil will lead to political changes in many European countries, and the future of the European Union and the Eurozone will themselves come under significant strains.

The next chapter of the Middle East drama is quite unpredictable. Israel, with its right-ward tilt, is expected to become even more aggressive, as its recent plan for more settlements in Jerusalem shows, and this may increase its isolation further.

But whether the Palestinian parties can unite and take advantage of its strong resistance in Gaza, its new UN-adopted status as a state, and the decline in Israel’s international support, is to be seen.

The Iran nuclear issue will continue to occupy news attention, with the Western countries having to decide whether to negotiate with Iran or intensify the sanctions (or both) or prepare for a military attack (thankfully, this does not seem likely).

The Syrian civil war will still dominate the TV channels as it enters another phase and perhaps an end-game, while the continued struggle for Egypt’s future political and social system will also have major effects on the region and the world.

In Asia, the world will watch closely whether the final stage of China’s leadership change-over to the new President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang in March will begin a new era or continue the policies of the past decade.

Malaysia will have its place in the global spotlight with the general election, which will most likely take place in March.

Whatever the results, this closely contested election will be a watershed in the political life of the nation.

India, too, is in a state of significant political and economic flux, and 2013 will be used by the political parties and forces to prepare for the climax of the general election in 2014 and it is anybody’s guess who will come up on top.

Even as politics and economics continue to occupy the most attention, 2013 will remind us with greater force that Nature forms the bedrock of our societies and our civilisation.

The passing year brought its share of natural disasters to rival those of the previous recent years, and 2013 could even see worse extreme weather events around the world.

Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase despite greater awareness about the dangers of climate change.

Last week’s big floods in Malaysia’s east coast states could be a harbringer of worse to come in the country and the region.

The Philippines, having suffered a typhoon in its southern region in early December, had to cope with another big storm in its central region last week.

These are reminders that each country should improve its natural disaster preparedness as well as finalise its national strategy to address climate change.

And there are many other environmental issues to give high priority to, including water scarcity and quality, deforestation, biodiversity conservation, toxic chemicals and wastes and pollution of all types.

It will be an interesting year ahead.

Happy New Year to all readers of Global Trends!

Global Trends By MARTIN KHOR

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